Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP fears midterm pain from Mueller probe — Pawlenty passes on Senate run — Campaign shakeups in South Carolina
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 09:02:54 -0600
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By Daniel Strauss | 01/17/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Kevin Robillard
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
MUELLER PROBE - "Republicans fear midterm pain from Mueller probe," by POLITICO's Darren Samuelsohn: "Robert Mueller's Russia probe isn't ending anytime soon, and that's bad news for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans already bracing for a possible 2018 Democratic midterm wave. While many Republicans insist the Trump-Russia saga is overblown, they worry headlines about federal indictments, high-profile trials - and a potential blockbuster meeting between Mueller and Trump himself - could obscure their positive message ahead of November elections and threaten their House and Senate majorities. ... Democrats say they won't focus their campaigns on the Russia investigations,
 seeing larger issue-based themes like health care and taxes as their ticket to returning to the majority in Congress for the first time since 2010. But they are not running away from what happened in 2016 either." Full story. 
 
PAWLENTY PASSES - "Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said today he won't run in a special election for the Senate later this year. Pawlenty, now the CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable, a powerful bank lobbying group, ruled out a run during an appearance on Fox Business Network. 'I'm interested in continuing to serve,' Pawlenty said. 'There's a variety of ways to do that, [but] running for U.S. Senate this year won't be one of them.' ... Republicans pushed the former governor to run, hoping his name identification and reputation as a so-called Sam's Club Republican could help them pick up a Senate seat in
 a difficult national environment. Minnesota, traditionally a blue state, has trended Republican in recent years, and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won it by just 2 percentage points in 2016. Democrats, however, thought they would be able to use Pawlenty's post-gubernatorial career as a conservative presidential candidate and bank lobbyist as a way to convince Minnesotans their former governor was out of step with the state. Pawlenty's decision not to run leaves state Sen. Karin Housley as the major GOP challenger to [Sen. Tina] Smith, who has thus far avoided any major opponents in a Democratic primary." Full story. 
 
POLL TIME - "Club for Growth poll: Blackburn leads Tennessee GOP primary field," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "A Club for Growth poll of Tennessee's GOP Senate primary found Rep. Marsha Blackburn with a resounding lead over former Rep. Stephen Fincher. The poll found Blackburn leading Fincher 66 percent to 13 percent, with 21 percent undecided. The WPA Intelligence survey of 502 likely GOP primary voters in Tennessee, conducted Jan. 14-15, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. ... The winner of the GOP primary - set for Aug. 2 - will likely face former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen in the general election." Full story. 
 
- Democratic poll says Senate voters will blame GOP for shutdown: A new poll from Hart Research Associates finds voters in 12 states with competitive Senate races -- Arizona, Nevada, plus the 10 states where Democrats are defending seats Trump won -- voters are likely to blame Republicans for any government shutdown. Forty-two percent of voters will blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, according to the poll, while just 31 percent will blame congressional Democrats. The poll also found 81 percent "say a budget agreement should prevent the deportation of DREAMers by granting them legal status to remain in the country," while a 57 percent majority opposes including funding for a Mexican
 border wall. The poll, paid for by MoveOn, surveyed 67 voters in each of the 12 states. Read the full memo here. 
 
- GOP IVR poll finds Gov. Eric Greitens losing support - From the Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry: "A poll that was conducted on the heels of the scandal by Remington Research Group, a GOP-leaning firm, shows that the governor's brand has been damaged by the scandal. The poll found that only 32 percent of likely Missouri voters have a favorable opinion of the governor, which is a drop of 10 percentage points from a poll conducted by the same firm a week earlier. A plurality of voters, 47 percent, have an unfavorable opinion of the governor, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous week. The remaining 21 percent were undecided. The poll of 1,002 likely voters was paid for by
 Missouri Scout and conducted on Jan. 13 and 14, the first weekend after the allegations became public. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points. The poll found that 37 percent of likely voters believe the governor's account that he did not blackmail the woman, while 38 percent believed her ex-husband's allegations. The rest of the respondents either disbelieved both men or were undecided. Thirty-seven percent of voters said the governor should resign, 43 percent said he should remain in office and the rest were undecided." Full story. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - DSCC raises $5.8 million in December, has $19 million on hand: The DSCC raised $5.8 million in December, the committee said, and finished paying off its election debt. (The committee has a mortgage for its Capitol Hill headquarters.) The committee has $19 million in its bank account. 
 
- NRSC raises $3.4 million in December: The NRSC raised $3.4 million, the committee said, and has $15.3 million on hand. It's unclear how much debt the committee has remaining. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - Citizens United backs Saccone: Citizens United Political Victory Fund is backing Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone in the PA-18 special election. "Rick Saccone knows that Americans need pro-growth policies that will help our economy create new American jobs," Citizens United President David Bossie said. "Saccone also supports President Trump's strong efforts on border security and holding sanctuary cities accountable." 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 292
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
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You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
Q4 TOTALS -
 
- FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast raised $419,000 last quarter. He has $1 million in cash on hand. 
 
- FL-27: Democrat Matt Haggman raised $400,000 last quarter, ending the year with just under $750,000 in cash on hand. 
 
- MA-03: Democrat Lori Trahan raised $310,000 last quarter, finishing the year with $500,000 in cash on hand.
 
- Georgia: Lt. Gov Casey Cagle raised more than $4 million in the fundraising disclosure period that ends on Jan. 31. He has over $5.75 million cash on hand. 
 
- Arizona: Gov. Doug Ducey has raised more than $3 million for his reelection campaign and has roughly $2.6 million cash on hand. 
 
- Arizona: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Farley raised $513,000 since June 1, 2017, and has $232,000 cash on hand. 
 
- Maine: Attorney General Janet Mills raised over $350,000 during the fundraising period between July and December 2017 and has about $230,000 cash on hand. 
 
- Wisconsin: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mahlon Mitchell raised $310,000 in the first seven weeks of his campaign and has $242,000 cash on hand. 
 
- More Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker raised over $3.6 million in the most recent fundraising period and has raised $7 million total for 2017. He has $4.2 million cash on hand. 
 
WAVE WATCH - "Dem Schachtner Beats Jarchow to Take Senate Seat" by The Associated Press's Todd Richmond: "Patty Schachtner defeated Republican state Rep. Adam Jarchow for an open state Senate seat Tuesday in an upset victory for struggling Wisconsin Democrats, signaling voter anger toward President Donald Trump that could cost the GOP more legislative seats in the fall elections. ... The district has trended red for years. Republican Sheila Harsdorf held the Senate seat for 16 years before she resigned in November to become Gov. Scott Walker's agriculture secretary, and every county in the district voted for Trump in 2016. Jarchow is in the middle of his third term representing the area in
 the Assembly and had built a formidable base." Full story. 
 
CAMPAIGN SHAKEUPS - "Major shake-up in Gov. McMaster's campaign on eve of his first State of the State address," by The Charleston Post and Courier's Jamie Lovegrove, Andy Shain and Seanna Adcox: "On the eve of his first State of the State address, Gov. Henry McMaster's 2018 campaign is changing leadership, bringing in a chief aide to Sen. Lindsey Graham. His top rival for the Republican nomination, Mount Pleasant attorney Catherine Templeton, also changed top staff. Katie Baham, a veteran South Carolina GOP operative who has run McMaster's campaign operations since August, left the governor's staff, spokesman Caroline Anderegg said Tuesday. ... A shake-up five months before the June 12
 primary was not a surprise. McMaster, a former state attorney general and lieutenant governor who was promoted to governor a year ago, has not pulled away from his GOP challengers, even after President Donald Trump flew down to Greenville for fundraiser in October. McMaster had endorsed Trump early in the 2016 campaign." Full story. 
 
N.C. MAP UPDATE - Panel rejects the Legislature's request for stay: A three-judge panel rejected the Republican-controlled General Assembly's request for a stay, leaving it up to the Supreme Court, per state Rep. Darren Jackson.
 
NEVER SAY NEVER? - Former Attorney General Eric Holder didn't rule out a 2020 presidential run when asked about it by radio host Bakari Sellers, saying he "wouldn't focus on that 'till the end of this year" and that "I'm not saying no." The interview.
 
OBIT - "Sarah Janecek, longtime political commentator, dies at 57," by The Minnesota Star-Tribune's Beena Raghavendran: "Sarah Janecek, an influential Minnesota political commentator, writer and strategist who embraced the GOP but was respected across party lines, died Friday while on vacation in South America." Full story.
 
STAFFING UP - Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor has appointed staff to new positions. Per a press release: "Taylor named Erica Nurnberg as Deputy Campaign Manager and Political Director. Nurnberg, of Columbus, held the same position on State Treasurer Josh Mandel's recently ended campaign for the United States Senate. ... Prior she was the Deputy Advance Director for Ted Cruz's Campaign for President. ... Lt. Governor Taylor also promoted former Finance Director Beau Euton to Campaign Manager and named Jeananne Chadsey to replace her. Euton, of Delaware, was the Vice-President of Membership for the Ohio Chamber of Commerce prior to joining Taylor's campaign. Chadsey, of Green, came to the campaign from
 the Republican Party of Cuyahoga County, where she served as Director of Special Projects. Chadsey also served as Campaign Manager for Sen. Frank LaRose's successful 2014 reelection campaign to the Ohio Senate and was the Finance Director for Renacci for Congress."
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There are only so many combinations of appendages and orifices." - Al Watkins, the attorney for the ex-husband of the woman accusing Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens of blackmailing her, describing additional audio recordings about the affair to CNN. 
 
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