Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Super PAC says GOP must sell tax reform — Tester at risk after risky shutdown vote — Census could shift power to rural America
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 25 Jan 2018 09:06:44 -0600
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By Maggie Severns | 01/25/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
THE PITCH - "Super PAC memo: House GOP still has to sell tax cuts," by POLITICO's Kevin Robillard: "A new memo from a top super PAC dedicated to helping preserve the GOP's House majority bluntly warns Republicans can't succeed next November unless they convince the public the party's signature tax reform law helps the middle class, something of which voters in key districts remain deeply skeptical. In the memo, based on a blitz of polling across 69 competitive congressional districts, Congressional Leadership Fund executive director Corry Bliss argues the party has a long way to go in pushing voters to embrace its recently passed tax law." 
 
- Yikes: "According to CLF's own polling, a plurality of voters in at least 50 battleground districts believe the GOP tax plan will increase their taxes, not cut them," Bliss' memo says. "Public polling still shows the tax bill is unpopular, although increasing numbers of voters think the law will cut what they fork over to the government each year. Forty-six percent of voters disapprove of the law in a new Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday, while 37 percent approve." 
 
- Other CLF takeaways from its 69-district blitz: "Across these districts, President Trump's image remains in line with election results from 2016. Republican members of congress' images overperform the President's image in 51 out of 60 GOP incumbent districts," the memo says. "For example, in TX23, Congressman Will Hurd's image is +17, while the President's image is -7."
 
"Members must be focused and serious in building and maintaining their own image. ... Members need to identify the 50,000 voters they need to win and communicate with them as often as possible about what they are doing for their communities," the memo continues. "Republicans must continue to use the Pelosi vs. Ryan contrast." Full memo, including a list of the districts polled by CLF, is here. Read more from Robillard here.
 
- A Democratic source noted the list of districts CLF polled included some relatively red territory, such as WA-05, VA-05, VA-07, UT-04 and three GOP-leaning districts in North Carolina. The group also didn't poll some supposed potential GOP pickups, including NH-02 and NV-04.
 
TESTER TESTED - "Tester puts reelection on the line with risky shutdown vote," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Robillard: "Every Democratic senator from a Republican-leaning state voted Monday to reopen the government, from the liberal Sherrod Brown to the conservative Joe Manchin. Everyone, that is, except for Jon Tester. Republicans are determined to make him pay.
 
"The plainspoken Montanan was on a glide path to a third term despite the conservative tilt of his state - among the safest of red state Democratic incumbents on the November ballot. ... [T]he spending vote has injected new life into Republicans' hopes of giving Tester a fight - despite the senator's adamance that he was doing right by his state." Full story. 
 
THE LONG GAME - "Potential citizenship question in 2020 Census could shift power to rural America," by The Washington Post's Michael Scherer: "A request by the Justice Department to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census could shift the nation's balance of political power from cities to more rural communities over the next decade and give Republicans a new advantage drawing electoral boundaries. ... All of it has prompted advocates for Hispanic communities to accuse the Justice Department of wanting to produce a less accurate count in 2020." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 284
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
GETTING THE NOD - Democracy for America endorses four House challengers in contested primaries: Democracy for America waded into four crowded House primaries on Thursday by endorsing four Democratic challengers: Katie Porter (CA-45), Fayrouz Saad (MI-11), Jess King (PA-16) and Gina Ortiz-Jones (TX-23). 
 
- Gabbard backs Hanabusa: "Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is endorsing fellow Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in Hawaii's gubernatorial race over sitting Democratic Gov. David Ige, two Hawaii Democrats with knowledge of the endorsement confirmed to POLITICO," Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reports. Full story.
 
- EMILY's List endorses Underwood: EMILY's List endorsed Lauren Underwood in her race for Congress in Illinois' 14th District. "Lauren has shown again and again that she is committed to improving the lives of others and pushing for economic prosperity for hardworking Illinois families, through policies like affordable child care and paid family leave," EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock said in a statement.
 
EARLY POLLING DATA - Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg warns of slipping enthusiasm: Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, in a memo for Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund, warn of slipping enthusiasm to vote in the midterms among parts of the so-called Rising American Electorate, which includes unmarried women, millennials and minority voters. But they also say the ingredients are there for an "earthquake result" in 2018. Read the full memo here. 
 
COURT REPORT - "Judge tosses 7 of 18 counts against Menendez and Melgen," by POLITICO's Matt Friedman and John Bresnahan: A federal judge has acquitted Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez and co-defendant Salomon Melgen on seven of the 18 counts they were tried on last year, just days after the Justice Department announced its intent to try the duo again after the jury deadlocked in the first trial. ... Despite the judge's decision, Menendez faces the prospect of another bribery trial just as he begins his campaign for another Senate term. And if convicted, the 64-year-old New Jersey senator could find himself behind bars instead of behind a desk on the Senate floor." Full story. 
 
NEW ENTRY - "Orman announces independent campaign for Kansas governor," by Strauss: "Kansas independent Greg Orman announced his candidacy for governor on Wednesday, potentially scrambling the race in the traditionally Republican state. Orman's rollout included a nearly 3-minute campaign video. Orman, who ran as an independent for Senate in 2014, joined a crowded field of both Republican and Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer - who is likely to get an audition in the job when outgoing Gov. Sam Brownback resigns later this month to become U.S. ambassador-at-large for religious freedom - is facing roughly a dozen GOP opponents, though his strongest competitor is
 Secretary of State Kris Kobach." Full story.
 
Q4 TOTALS - CO-06: Democrat Jason Crow outraised Republican Rep. Mike Coffman $276,712 to about $241,000, Colorado Politics reported. Crow has $590,346 cash on hand while Coffman has about $840,000.
 
STAFFING UP - Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn) named Alana Petersen, who is currently her chief state adviser, as her campaign manager, per a release from the state party. Petersen was a senior adviser on then-Sen. Al Franken's 2014 campaign and a state adviser to Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign.
 
 - Nick Veach, formerly of the Roosevelt Institute, is joining the Democratic Attorneys General Association as national finance director.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - Reel campaign releases intro video: Matt Reel, a special forces Green Beret running for Congress in the Tennessee seat being vacated GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn, is releasing a new introduction video today to familiarize voters with Reel while he is on active duty. "We need leaders who put the country's needs over their own political ambitions. And that's why I'm running for Congress. The current leadership on both sides of the aisle is failing us," Reel says in the video. Watch the video here. 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I would like to not have to say 'history' anymore, that we break all the history, and we break all the firsts, and we just normalize what we're doing," EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock told POLITICO's Women Rule podcast.
 
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