Subject: EconVue Spotlight February 4, 2018 l Is the Global Financial Crisis Finally Over?
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2018 11:45:13 -0800 (PST)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

What a week it was! Equity markets and cryptocurrencies, both of which 
appeared to defy the laws of gravity, and the US dollar took a dive. 
However, the story of synchronized global growth does not seem to have 
changed. Have we finally escaped the long dark shadow cast in 2008? 
Renowned Japanese economy expert Takatoshi Ito thinks that things are 
changing at the Bank of Japan, the institution that invented and led the 
world in quantitative easing. This could be a signal of things to come 
in a new global monetary policy environment.

Interest rates might be rising in 2018, but US corporates have received 
a gift in the form of a massive tax cut. EconVue expert Marsha Vande 
Berg

https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg

explores whether or not this will be a missed opportunity, and hopes 
that corporate boards will eschew the easy path of share buybacks and 
dividends to support new technologies and educate employees. Andrew 
Batson's excellent blog looks at wealth distribution from another 
perspective, economic history. He discusses a new book about a 
contemporary rival to Karl Marx, who envisioned a way to empower workers 
without centralizing the ownership of property. This debate is likely to 
last another hundred years.

In spite of lagging wages, US consumption is strong, and in view of full 
employment is likely to continue at its current pace. EconVue expert 
Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

says that in spite of auto and student loans, consumers are not 
overextended. Mysteries remain-why hasn't full employment pushed up 
wages? Perhaps the two are unrelated. The US industrial base is 
similarly underextended: capacity utilization in US industry is still 2% 
below its long term average.

There are clouds however, especially in health care. Amazon's new 
venture in this space began the stock market rout last week. In the long 
run, misallocation of health care dollars in the US is a problem that 
must be solved, and innovative technology rather than regulation is 
bound to be the answer. Regular contributor David Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

's report below describes the ills and some possible cures.

What should we be watching for in 2018? Mobile payments in the US 
catching up with China, and energy storage as a booming industry. 
Australian EconVue expert Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

provides his macro insights for 2018, notably China as it undergoes 
political transformation. He takes a sanguine view and predicts overall 
economic stability.

See these and other stories below.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

What to Watch for in 2018&nbsp;

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Saul Eslake

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Saul's ten things that will shape the global and Australian economies in 
2018.

US Corporate Governance/The New Tax Law Comes with Complications

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Feconvue.com%2Fpulse%2Fus-corporate-governancethe-new-tax-law-comes-complications&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=UNUTu%2Fg7nM4ALMfDK8qfS%2FNWKxtNupezuYTEPJ05iB8%3D&reserved=0

Marsha Vande Berg

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While an optimistic consensus in corporate America is growing around 
last year's passage of a sweeping US tax bill, corporate boards would be 
wise to pivot their spending deliberations to how companies can catalyze 
new technologies on behalf of improvements in real wages, growing jobs 
and educating the workforce. This should be the preference over stock 
buybacks and shareholder dividends if the US economy is to realize more 
than a one-time, feel-good growth spurt.

FMI February 2018 Economic &amp; Investment Outlook

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-february-2018-economic-investment-outlook

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

For 2018, Real GDP Should Grow +2.75%, Perhaps Bit More; Jobless Rate 
Should Fall to Record (Peacetime) Lows; Core Inflation Will Likely 
Breach +2% Target by Summer.

Fortress Healthcare Meanders Toward Value

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David W. Johnson

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On the frontlines, providers are positioning themselves to win customers 
by delivering higher quality care and better service more efficiently. 
At the rear, the battle is for clinical precision through right-care, 
right-setting delivery with more emphasis on integration and cost 
cutting than revenue maximization.

Trump's SOTU Economic Agenda: Self-Congratulations and Empty Threats — 
But It Could Be Much More

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Feconvue.com%2Fpulse%2Ftrump%25E2%2580%2599s-sotu-economic-agenda-self-congratulations-and-empty-threats-%25E2%2580%2594-it-could-be-much-more&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=vbXEqvrAbOB8YXkcVScrQKOOwgbpntyk2iNOm87O%2Fi8%3D&reserved=0

Robert Shapiro

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Trump's economic agenda for 2018 is both largely predictable and deeply 
unrealisitic. With a boost from his deficit-busting tax reforms, CBO now 
forecasts budget deficits averaging $1 trillion per-year over the next 
decade (2018-2027). That tells us that Trump is virtually certain to 
propose deep spending cuts across most domestic areas, excluding the 
Pentagon.

The Mobile Mainstream

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Collin Canright

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"Changing consumer preferences and behaviors are focused on ease of use, 
convenience, and immediacy of payment that can be obtained through the 
mobile channel," reports the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its most 
recent mobile payments study.

Yet the mobile experience in the mainstream of U.S. commerce hardly 
meets that ideal.

Moreno Reviving Ecuador's Participatory Democracy

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R. Evan Ellis

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Dr. Ellis' new article on the policies and challenges of Ecuador's 
recently elected president Lenin Moreno, with recommendations for US 
policymakers. The article emphasizes the positive steps that President 
Moreno has taken in reviving an inclusive, democratic discourse in his 
country, as well as opportunities for the US to respectfully work with 
him and his government, despite persistent policy differences.

Davos and the anti-Davos Man

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Karim Pakravan

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This Davos meeting could be the most consequential since the one 
following the financial crisis of 2008. The erosion of U.S. leadership, 
the concomitant rise of China's financial and soft power, and the 
challenges posed to the global trade system are the background to major 
shifts in the global economic and financial architecture, with 
unpredictable consequences.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

The Future of U.S.-China Economic Ties: A Conversation with Erin Ennis

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fchinapower.csis.org%2Fpodcasts%2Ffuture-us-china-economic-ties%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=p%2Fls%2FKIn83%2BI6ZbmiJJm9ORwi0OI3iJsuzRdysdMUQk%3D&reserved=0

4/6/2017 CSIS ChinaPower Podcast

Always worth listening to US-China economic relations expert Erin Ennis 
about how this relationship is evolving and what US corporates can 
expect.

Cryptocurrencies and National Security

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fcryptocurrencies-and-national-security%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial_share%26utm_source%3Dtw&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=S1z32ZN13QvsS8F2vJTm0ZMGYYi1%2BEW5lsQJq1wdhBM%3D&reserved=0

1/30/2018 Council on Foreign Relations

This Council on Foreign Relations article makes no mention of the 
possible benefits of cryptocurrencies, especially for citizens whose 
governments serve them poorly with weak financial institutions. All 
innovations create positive and negative outcomes; the positive deserve 
equal attention.

Triple Threat: Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan Rattle Health-Care Firms

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Anna Wilde Mathews , Emily Glazer and Laura Stevens 1/30/2018 Wall 
Street Journal

Flip side? How many employees would be comfortable with their employer 
storing all of their health data?

Some of Marx's earliest critics were right on the&nbsp;money

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fandrewbatson.com%2F2018%2F01%2F30%2Fsome-of-marxs-earliest-critics-were-right-on-the-money%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=MCOJC0%2F0my72sg02KTL%2B4WONpZtMpnbb4Y60glMmG9I%3D&reserved=0

1/30/2018 Andrew Batson Blog

Was there a way to help workers without increasing centralization? A new 
book describes how Karl Marx might have got it wrong.

Technological innovation drives clean energy boom

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2018 Enviromental Defense Fund study

The future requires energy storage, and this sector is growing—46% just 
in the past year, with projected growth of nine times by 2022, only four 
years away. How much would you pay for a battery that lasts twice as 
long?

Higher US Treasury yields are no certainty under Basel III

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Matthew C Klein 1/26/2018 Financial Times

Central bankers like to think tough regulation makes monetary policy 
more straightforward. Yet the Federal Reserve may find its plans to 
raise long-term interest rates partly stymied by the capital and 
liquidity rules of Basel III. Another example of how in spite of 
political pressures against globalization, in the financial sector at 
least it is inescapable.

Blockchain Technology Overview

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Dylan Yaga, Peter Mell, Nik Roby & Karen Scarfone 1/2018 National 
Institute of Standards and Technology

A draft issued by the NIST of the U.S. Department of Commerce setting 
standards for blockchain technology. Great unhyped read for those of us 
trying to grasp what blockchain is and what it can do.

The Bank of Japan's Moment of Truth

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.project-syndicate.org%2Fcommentary%2Fbank-of-japan-low-inflation-conundrum-by-takatoshi-ito-2018-01%2Fenglish&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=596YWHaoITBMLxEGGtlmx2IDL5Nyqy%2Bq1VBwCdtBy%2FE%3D&reserved=0

Takatoshi Ito 1/25/2018 Project Syndicate

Insight from Takatoshi Ito. 

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Digital Identity – Why It Matters and Why It's Important We Get It Right

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fpress%2F2018%2F01%2Fdigital-identity-why-it-matters-and-why-it-s-important-we-get-it-right%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=c7%2FwchC0S7c0sFmxPWPLLO3nbKwtLlLFOr1JCR50IM8%3D&reserved=0

1/25/2018 World Economic Forum

Large institutions will always favor identification. Privacy will become 
the world's scarcest luxury, unless new technologies can overcome the 
inexorable trend towards personal digital identities accessible by data 
collectors.

China's VPN crackdown is about money as much as censorship

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Lucy Horby 1/21/2018 Financial Times

Biggest import trading partner (chart)

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1/19/2018 &nbsp;

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@NinjaEconomics

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A map of each US state and their largest trading partner. California's 
is China, not Mexico.

The Apple story is about corporate bonds not cash or capex

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fftalphaville.ft.com%2F2018%2F01%2F18%2F2197758%2Fthe-apple-story-is-about-corporate-bonds-not-cash-or-capex%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=V0a2daeXF4iX1vDvTSr0zEzohhMujTjtATG7%2FwKpIhQ%3D&reserved=0

Alexandra Scaggs 1/18/2018 Financial Times

Apple, the world's largest company, as a financial institution.

Baidu expands AI labs and makes key hires

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Ina Fried 1/18/2018 Axios

Artificial Intelligence. We're not there yet.

Resource-hungry China is in overdrive as it wages water wars by stealth

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com%2Fnews%2Fchina%2Fdiplomacy-defence%2Farticle%2F2128119%2Fresource-hungry-china-overdrive-it-wages-water-wars&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=O2KaBk4LTyyNy%2FQnc6ICIp2QsT3uY935oZvNhIqjYmY%3D&reserved=0

Brahma Chellaney 1/16/2018 South China Morning Post

The view from India: international pressure is needed to rein in 
Beijing's dam-building frenzy and ensure it respects the environment and 
rights of downstream nations

The looming student loan default crisis is worse than we thought

https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.brookings.edu%2Fresearch%2Fthe-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=j8c%2BECu76H19yqvgYPyeasIH0%2FGKbDQu%2FQbgqddvSCk%3D&reserved=0

Judith Scott-Clayton 1/11/2018 Brookings Institute

40% of student loans might be in default by 2023. Since student loans 
are larger than credit card debt, this is significant.

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Editor-in-Chief

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