Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Round 2: Cramer, Corker eye bids they initially declined — Democrat wins special state House election in Florida — ClearPath puts $1M behind Costello
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2018 09:04:08 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 02/14/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Zach Montellaro 
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Feb. 19. Our next Morning Score newsletter will publish on Tuesday, Feb. 20. 
 
CRAMER VS. CRAMER - Republicans hopeful North Dakota congressman will enter Senate race: GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer ruled out a Senate bid against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but Republicans are hoping he's changed his mind - and they think it's more likely than not that he agrees to run. NBC News' Jonathan Allen reported on Tuesday that Cramer was telling associates he planned on running, but GOP sources warned Campaign Pro that they were certain Cramer was going to run before he backed out in January. 
 
- Emineth drops out: Gary Emineth, the former state GOP chair who dropped out on Tuesday after spending much of his abbreviated Senate run feuding with American Bridge staffers on Twitter, said he did so because Cramer was going to enter the race. "I find myself unwilling to take on a popular incumbent who has done much to endear himself to his constituents," Emineth wrote. 
 
- Campbell likely won't: While some D.C. Republicans hoped a potential Cramer entrance would lead to wealthy farmer and state legislator Tom Campbell deciding to drop out, that doesn't seem likely. While Cramer and Campbell are friends and have known each other for decades, Campbell has already put nearly $750,000 of his own money into the contest. Still, expect a continued effort to push Campbell out. Republicans previewed some of the opposition research on hand for the Washington Examiner, and are prepared to argue it makes him unelectable against Heitkamp
 
- Is Cramer a good recruit? The NRSC, allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House have all invested a tremendous amount of effort to woo Cramer into the race, with one top Senate GOP operative calling him "the most recruited candidate in the history of GOP politics." But he's also a candidate Republicans were trying to keep out of the race last spring and summer because of his frequent gaffes, and whose comments on what Democratic women wore to last year's State of the Union led Republicans to compare him to Todd Akin, the Missouri GOP Senate candidate who started a firestorm with his "legitimate rape" comment. Still, he's well-known and popular in North Dakota. So
 is Cramer a good candidate? Republicans insist he's good enough to beat Heitkamp. Democrats disagree. 
 
STRIKE THREE - "Democrat wins special state House election," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "For the third Florida bellwether election in a row, the Republican candidate lost to the Democrat, giving activists and elites in both parties a sense that the GOP's political grip is slipping in the nation's largest swing state heading into President Donald Trump's first midterm election. Aside from her big 7.4 percentage-point win, what made Margaret Good's victory Tuesday night over Republican James Buchanan so significant was that it took place in Florida's 72nd House District. It had been held by a Republican in Sarasota County, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 12,000, or
 about 10 percentage points. Buchanan, the son of local Congressman Vern Buchanan, also had an advantage in name ID." Full story.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - "ClearPath puts $1M behind Costello in PA-06," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "ClearPath Action Fund, a super PAC founded by Republican Jay Faison, announced today that it's putting $1 million behind an outside effort to boost Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello - its first of the 2018 cycle. ... The group will start airing TV and digital ads this spring, part of a six-figure effort 'to highlight Costello's record advocating policies that expand clean and reliable energy,' per a memo from the group." Full story. 
 
WILL HE, WON'T HE - "Corker edges closer to reelection bid," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Sen. Bob Corker is inching closer to ditching his retirement plans and running for reelection. After a person close to the Tennessee Republican said Monday the senator was 'listening' to those imploring him to run again, Corker's team went further on Tuesday, acknowledging he is reconsidering his decision to call it quits after two terms." Full story.
 
SIREN - "Russia Sees Midterm Elections as Chance to Sow Fresh Discord, Intelligence Chiefs Warn," by The New York Times' Matthew Rosenberg: "As the midterm elections approach, Russia is likely to throw more propaganda at Americans, using people sympathetic to their messages and fake personalities on social media - many of them run by bots - to sow further political and social divisions in the United States, American intelligence chiefs said on Tuesday. ... 'There should be no doubt that Russia perceives its past efforts as successful and views the 2018 U.S. midterm elections as a potential target for Russian influence operations,' said Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence." Full
 story. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 265.
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
NEW MAPS - Wolf rejects GOP-proposed congressional map: "Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf rejected a proposed congressional map from Republican legislative leaders this morning, calling the GOP's map 'a partisan gerrymander that does not comply with the court's order or Pennsylvania's constitution.' Given the court-ordered deadline of Thursday, it's likely a map drawn by the state Supreme Court will now be used in this year's midterm elections. ... The court plans to make a new map available by Monday and has retained Stanford law professor Nathaniel Persily to assist in that effort." Full story.
 
SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - "Trump set to hold fundraiser for Saccone," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "President Donald Trump will raise money for Pennsylvania Republican congressional candidate Rick Saccone during a trip to the state next week, according to two people briefed on the plans. A fundraiser is set to take place on Feb. 21, the same day Trump holds a campaign-style rally in Ambridge, Pa. Saccone is expected to attend the rally, according to several people familiar with his schedule. Trump's visit is the latest in a series of steps the White House is taking to boost Saccone, a state representative, ahead of the March 13 special election." Full story.
 
- Club for Growth launches radio ads in PA-18: The Club for Growth released a radio ad on Tuesday that attacks Democrat Conor Lamb for being "Nancy Pelosi's best buddy in Congress." The ad hits on a San Francisco theme, frequently used by outside groups this special election season. "Conor Lamb claims he'd be a different kinda politician," the radio ad says. "But Lamb's campaign is getting big money from Nancy Pelosi's liberal pals." Listen to the ad here. 
 
TAKE THREE? - "Alan Grayson says he's running for Congress, but won't say where," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo: "Firebrand Democrat Alan Grayson says he wants to return to Congress in 2018, but is not yet saying which seat he's running for. 'Yes, this cycle is what I'm looking at,' Grayson told POLITICO Florida in a telephone interview Monday. 'But Florida law says I can run anywhere.' ... Central Florida Democrats for more than a month have been buzzing with talk that Grayson might run against his Democratic successor, U.S. Rep. Darren Michael Soto, who beat Grayson's wife and his former aide in the 2016 Democratic primary when the former congressman decided to run for
 U.S. Senate." Full story.
 
DIGITAL WATCH - "I Approved This Facebook Message - But You Don't Know That," by ProPublica's Jennifer Valentino-DeVries: "Hundreds of federal political ads - including those from major players such as the Democratic National Committee and the Donald Trump 2020 campaign - are running on Facebook without adequate disclaimer language, likely violating Federal Election Commission rules, a review by ProPublica has found." Full story.
 
ON THE AIR (AND THE WEB) - FIRST IN SCORE - Stop Payday Predators airing ads in contested House races: Stop Payday Predators, a new group working against the payday loan industry, is out with ads in 10 House races attacking Republicans for voting to protect the industry. The digital and television ads feature "a former payday lender and a retired senior sharing her personal experience with the exploitative payday lending industry and its impact to consumers like her." The ads are targeting Virginia Reps. Scott Taylor, Barbara Comstock and Tom Garrett, Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, Texas Rep. Will Hurd, California Rep. Steve Knight, Iowa Rep.
 Rod Blum and New York Rep. John Faso. Watch the ad here.
 
- Senate Leadership Fund goes up in West Virginia: Senate Leadership Fund is set to start airing ads in West Virginia's Senate race. While the exact content of the ads isn't clear, the group has booked about $37,000 worth of airtime running from Wednesday to next Friday, according to Advertising Analytics. Two other media-buying sources said the cable portion of the buy is concentrated in the state's third congressional district. 
 
- New Blankenship ad attacks Jenkins: Coal baron Don Blankenship, who is running for the GOP nomination fresh off a stint in federal prison, has been paying for sporadic ads in the state since last summer. Those ads have almost universally attacked Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. But his latest spot attacks both Manchin and Rep. Evan Jenkins, blaming career politicians for the state's economic woes. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Paul Kerr pops TV ad in CA-49: Democrat Paul Kerr is out with his first TV ad in the wide-open race to replace GOP Rep. Darrell Issa. The ad says "enough is enough" with Trump, citing his plans to "gut Planned Parenthood" and his "reckless tweets." Kerr "will stand up to Trump," the ad says. The ad also emphasizes Kerr's support for Medicare-for-All. Check out the ad here. 
 
- Abbott releases first TV ad in Texas governor race: GOP Gov. Greg Abbott launched his first TV ad on Tuesday, touting Texas' economic record "of 600,000 new jobs" and "the best business climate in the country." The ad concludes: "For Greg Abbott, this is just the beginning." Watch the ad here. 
 
- House Majority PAC thanks Murphy, Gottheimer in digital ads: House Majority PAC released digital ads on Tuesday that thanked Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy and New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer for "growing our economy and creating jobs in the district," per a memo from the group. The ads will run through the next week. Both ads emphasize the freshmen members' bipartisan credentials. Check out the NJ-05 ad here. Check out the FL-07 ad here. 
 
- NEW THIS MORNING - Hawley continues holiday-themed ads: Following up on his campaign's Groundhog Day-themed digital spot, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley is out with a 34-second Valentine's Day spot attacking Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill for "being in love with the liberal party line" and opposing the nominations of Judges Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito. Watch the ad here. 
 
#METOO - "Top Democratic Consultant Resigns Amid Sexual Misconduct Allegations," by The Huffington Post's Amanda Terkel: "Democratic consultant Jim Walsh resigned from both of his digital strategy firms on Tuesday, facing allegations of sexual misconduct. Walsh was the co-founder of the two firms, DSPolitical and Rising Tide Interactive. HuffPost spoke with a woman who said Walsh sexually assaulted her over a decade ago, when she was 21 years old and was looking for advice about how to get into politics. She is involved in politics in Washington state, so she brought her concerns to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the national organization that the party works with." Full
 story.
 
JUMPING IN - "Republican Hugin launches Senate candidacy, says he's 'embarrassed' by Menendez," by POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "Bob Hugin, a multimillionaire pharmaceutical executive, launched his Republican campaign for Senate on Tuesday by saying he was 'embarrassed' by the behavior of Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez. 'This campaign is going to be a contrast - a stark contrast in candidates,' Hugin, 63, said at an Elks lodge in Springfield, Union County. ... Hugin's former employer, Summit-based Celgene - from which he retired as executive chairman on Feb. 5 after working there for nearly two decades - has its own controversies that threaten to blunt his anti-corruption
 message." Full story.
 
JUMPING OUT - Pillich will exit Ohio gubernatorial race: "Former Ohio state Rep. Connie Pillich plans to drop out of the Democratic primary for governor, according to three party sources with knowledge of the move. ...Pillich, who entered the race in March 2017, had been endorsed by EMILY's List only a week ago." Full story.
 
POLLING DATA - Sununu has 61 percent approval rating: "New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is broadly popular after a year on the job, according to a University of New Hampshire poll that also shows the first-term Republican leading his possible Democratic challengers in this year's election. The Granite State poll found Sununu's job approval at 61 percent, unchanged from last October, but higher than his initial approval rating last February, 42 percent." Full story. 
 
MONEY CHASE - Trump tweet leads to Casey cash: Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's campaign told Campaign Pro he raised $75,000 in the 24 hours following Trump's endorsement of Rep. Lou Barletta in the state's Senate contest. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is beyond a trend. The results are in. Republicans have a real problem in this state," said Tom Eldon, a Democratic pollster on Florida, after the special legislative election results, POLITICO reported.
 
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