Subject: The Evening: Turkey Tensions, No Bloody Nose, Running Down a Dream and More
From: "Andrew Schwartz" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2018 22:42:32 +0000
List-Id: 833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaacmc list <833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac.212205.list-id.mcsv.net>

The Evening: Turkey Tensions, No Bloody Nose, Running Down a Dream and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Thursday, February 15th.

** Tensions With Turkey
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The specter of a U.S.-Turkish clash in Syria loomed over today’s meeting between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as AP’s Matthew Lee and Lolita Baldor report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/tense-times-in-us-turkey-relations-as-officials-huddle/2018/02/15/acf607b8-128c-11e8-a68c-e9374188170e_story.html?utm_term=.2ecbdffff004&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Turkey Has No Allies in the Black Sea, Only Interests (https://www.csis.org/analysis/turkey-has-no-allies-black-sea-only-interests/?block1&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Boris Toucas.

“General Erdogan’s First War (https://www.cfr.org/blog/general-erdogans-first-war?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) ,” by CFR’s Steven Cook.

** No Bloody Nose Strategy
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The Trump administration does not have a “bloody nose” strategy for North Korea, according to a bipartisan pair of senators and an administration official, as Rebecca Kheel of
The Hill reports (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/374049-state-official-senators-administration-does-not-have-bloody-nose-strategy-for?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS has new satellite imagery of North Korea’s special operations forces navy “sniper” brigades on our interactive micro website, Beyond Parallel (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/north-korean-special-operations-forces-hovercraft-bases-part-iii/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** Russia Blamed for Cyber Attack
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The White House today blamed Russia for the devastating ‘NotPetya’ cyber attack last year, joining the British government in condemning Moscow for unleashing a virus that crippled parts of Ukraine’s infrastructure and damaged computers in countries across the globe, as Reuters’ Dustin Volz and Sarah Young report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-cyber-usa/white-house-blames-russia-for-notpetya-cyber-attack-idUSKCN1FZ2UJ?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** ISIS Spreading
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A veteran terrorist leader in Indonesia was indicted today for ordering attacks from his prison cell, including a deadly assault in Jakarta that showed Islamic State had spread to the world’s most-populous Muslim-majority country, as the Wall Street Journal’s Ben Otto reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/key-islamic-state-ally-indicted-for-plotting-attacks-from-prison-cell-1518695521?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** Executive M.A. from CSIS/Syracuse U
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CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/dc/emir/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** In That Number
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** 3,500
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Almost 3,500 civilians were killed and 7,500 injured in extremist attacks and military strikes in Afghanistan in 2017. Source: Newsweek (http://www.newsweek.com/isis-taliban-and-trump-strikes-killed-or-injured-over-10000-afghan-civilians-807940?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** Critical Quote
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** “Our preference is to achieve denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through a diplomatic settlement, but we will reach this goal one way or another.”
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— Susan Thornton (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-bloodynose/no-bloody-nose-plan-for-north-korea-u-s-official-senators-idUSKCN1FZ2KK?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) , Acting Assistant Secretary of State, East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
New satellite imagery analysis from Beyond Parallel (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/north-korean-special-operations-forces-hovercraft-bases-part-ii/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) analyzes North Korean hovercraft units operating in the East Sea. In contrast to the West Sea Fleet, the restructuring and modernization of hovercraft bases in the East Sea Fleet has not been as comprehensive or accelerated.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.

** Optics
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Die Welt (Photo Credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images). Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, Parkland, Florida, February 14, 2018.

** Recommended Reading
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“Angela Merkel Pays a Steep Price to Stay in Power (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/angela-merkel-pays-a-steep-price-to-stay-in-power?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) ,” a
Businessweek cover story by Patrick Donahue, Arne Delfs, and Rainer Buergin.

** This Town Tuesday
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Join CSIS at 9:30 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/coping-surprise-great-power-conflicts?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) on Tuesday for the launch of the report
Coping with Strategic Surprise in Great Power Conflicts and a discussion on how the U.S. can better anticipate and adapt to the unexpected.

And on Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/rethinking-civil-society-sustainability?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) , join the CSIS Human Rights Initiative for a discussion about civil society resiliency and sustainability.

** Video
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Watch CSIS’s Michael J. Green testify (https://www.csis.org/analysis/tibet-all-angles-protecting-human-rights-defending-strategic-access-and-challenging-chinas?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) before the Congressional-Executive Commission on China regarding U.S. policy toward Tibet. “Those who argue that U.S. ‘policy’ should somehow be distinguished from our ‘values’ as a nation display a fundamental misunderstanding of our national interests and our own history,” Green said.

** Sounds
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On this week’s episode of 35 West, Andrés Rozental, former Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister, provides his analysis on the state of bilateral relations between the U.S. and Mexico and gives a preview of the Mexican presidential elections.

Listen here on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/35-west/id1288098233?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) and SoundCould (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/mexico-taking-the-long-view-on-trump?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) .

** Smiles
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When I think of the sounds one would normally hear in a Florida high school it certainly isn’t gunshots. It’s the laughter of students, teachers teaching, coaches blowing whistles, and in the early Florida spring, birds chirping. And I think of all of my friends and their kids in South Florida. Of course, I think about the music of Tom Petty (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv4-m-cIZf4&list=RDQv4-m-cIZf4&t=229&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789) echoing across the high school parking lot, not police sirens. My heart and prayers go out to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida and to everyone in Broward County.
I invite you to email me at [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked]) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=dcaca9b3ee-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-dcaca9b3ee-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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