Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Vulnerable Democrats, Republicans side with Trump on immigration — Poll finds Saccone slightly ahead — RGA pre-books $20 million in ads
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2018 09:04:03 -0600
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By Daniel Strauss | 02/16/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Zach Montellaro
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Feb. 19. The next Morning Score will publish on Tuesday, Feb. 20. 
 
STATE OF PLAY - Vulnerable Democrats, Republicans side with Trump on immigration: The most vulnerable Senate Republican and three of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats came together on Thursday to support President Donald Trump's immigration proposal, which failed on a 39-60 vote. GOP Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada, and Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana all voted for the hardline measure, which included funding for a border wall and cuts to legal immigration while providing a path to citizenship for DACA recipients. While that means seven Democrats in states Trump won in 2016, like Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Missouri
 Sen. Claire McCaskill, still voted against the proposal, the trio's decision to vote for Trump's immigration plan is still noteworthy after Democrats maintained unified opposition to Obamacare repeal and GOP tax reform.
 
- A sanctuary cities amendment from Sen. Pat Toomey got further, winning 54 votes to 45 in opposition. The amendment would've stripped federal funding from so-called sanctuary cities. Four Democrats voted for the proposal, with McCaskill and Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow joining Donnelly and Manchin. 
 
- While the Democratic votes are notable, it might be Heller whose votes are the most interesting. Heller, who supported the Gang of Eight immigration bill in 2013, now faces a GOP primary challenge from Danny Tarkanian in a state with a heavy Latino population. Heller's support for the measure shows Republicans are afraid of angering Trump and his supporters on a key issue. 
 
ON SECOND THOUGHT - "Cramer schedules Senate announcement rally," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "North Dakota GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer appears to have changed his mind on challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, having scheduled an announcement rally for Friday afternoon. Heitkamp is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats facing reelection in 2018. President Donald Trump won North Dakota by more than 30 percentage points in 2016. Last month, Cramer said he had decided not to challenge Heitkamp. But the White House and Senate Republicans continued to recruit him. Two GOP sources said energy executive Harold Hamm was set to serve as Cramer's finance chairman." Full story. 
 
NEW THIS A.M. - North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party hits Cramer with digital ads: The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party is welcoming Cramer to the race with four Facebook display ads attacking him as "Crooked Cramer," "a self-interested politician" who is "taking money from constituents in North Dakota and steering it back into his own bank account" and who uses his campaign as "his own personal piggy bank." The party will also being running digital ads on YouTube and promoted tweets. The ads leads to a microsite, stairway2kevin.com. 
 
NECK AND NECK - "Poll: Saccone has slight lead in PA-18 special," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Republican Rick Saccone holds a slim lead over Democrat Conor Lamb in the special election for a Western Pennsylvania congressional seat, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday. Saccone leads Lamb, 49 percent to 46 percent, the poll shows - only a marginal edge for Republicans in a district that supported President Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016. Another 4 percent are undecided, and 1 percent support a third-party candidate. ... More traditional turnout models give Saccone a slight boost. Using a model that forecasts lower turnout than the last midterm election, in
 2014, Saccone leads by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. A turnout model that looks more like the 2016 presidential electorate shows Saccone up by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent." Full story. 
 
AIR WARS - "RGA pre-books $20M in ads in 4 key states," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "The Republican Governors Association is pre-booking about $20 million worth of ads this fall in four key states it is looking to keep in GOP hands: Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Nevada. ... 'The RGA has pre-booked TV ad buys in four states with a gubernatorial race and the most likely competitive Senate and House races this year,' RGA Executive Director Paul Bennecke said in a statement. 'By booking ahead of campaigns and other outside groups, the RGA will save considerable resources.'" Full story. 
 
- DGA Executive Director Elisabeth Pearson responded in a statement: "The DGA is focused on aggressively expanding the map and electing Democratic governors across the country in red, blue, and purple states. Meanwhile, the RGA is already spending tens of millions of dollars in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio - four states they currently hold. This ad buy makes it clear that Republican governors are pressing the panic button as they bunker down for a rough 2018 playing defense."
 
Days until the 2018 election: 263
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.
 
CAMPAIGN STRATEGERY - "Why Romney plans to lay off Trump," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "When he goes forward, Romney intends to carefully skirt questions about how he'll deal with the president and what could be in store for his future, amid speculation that he's already plotting a role in leadership or even another campaign for the White House. Instead, Romney plans to keep it hyperlocal, presenting himself as someone who will tend to the state's needs even though his election is essentially a foregone conclusion, according to several people who've spoken to him in recent weeks. It's an approach other big-name figures who've run for Senate have employed, such as Hillary Clinton and Al
 Franken: Don't appear to be taking anything for granted or coasting on celebrity." Full story.
 
MEANWHILE IN MICHIGAN - "Whitmer fires campaign manager, citing 'inappropriate behavior,'" by Strauss: "Michigan Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer said today she has fired her campaign manager, Keenan Pontoni, over previous 'inappropriate' workplace behavior. 'Yesterday, I received a credible report that a number of years ago, my campaign manager engaged in inappropriate behavior with people in the workplace and for that reason I have asked for and received his resignation effective immediately,' Whitmer said in a statement. Dana Sherry will serve as interim campaign manager for the campaign, according to Whitmer spokeswoman Annie Ellison. ... Pontoni previously served as
 the campaign manager for Democrat Jon Ossoff in the special congressional election last year for a suburban Atlanta House seat. He was profiled last June by Roll Call, with the Capitol Hill paper calling Pontoni 'a man in high demand, with a bright future in a party that desperately needs fresh perspectives.'" Full story. 
 
GETTING STORMY - "American Bridge boosts pressure on FEC to investigate Stormy Daniels payment" by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "A liberal group on Thursday ramped up its push for the Federal Election Commission to investigate a $130,000 payment Donald Trump's personal lawyer made in 2016 to an adult film actress who says she once had an affair with the president.
 
"The regulatory body had already received requests to determine whether lawyer Michael Cohen violated campaign finance laws with the payment to actress Stephanie Clifford, who uses the stage name Stormy Daniels, after the incident was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. ... The complaint filed Thursday also argues that if Trump gave Cohen the go-ahead to make his public statement this week, 'Mr. Trump waived attorney-client privilege on this subject matter for all future investigations. ... As this situation is investigated further, Mr. Trump will no longer be able to claim attorney-client privilege when discussing the payment and the surrounding circumstances,' Beychok said in the
 complaint. Campaign finance violations could be difficult to prove. The payment to Clifford has drawn comparisons to the scandal that enveloped former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) after his 2008 presidential campaign. Edwards was indicted following accusations that donors made close to $1 million in improper payments to videographer Rielle Hunter after she became pregnant with Edwards' child. Edwards was acquitted on one charge, and a jury did not reach a verdict on others." Full story. 
 
ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "A top Trump campaign adviser close to plea deal with Mueller," by CNN's Katelyn Polantz and Sara Murray: "Former Trump campaign adviser Rick Gates is finalizing a plea deal with special counsel Robert Mueller's office, indicating he's poised to cooperate in the investigation, according to sources familiar with the case. Gates has already spoken to Mueller's team about his case and has been in plea negotiations for about a month. He's had what criminal lawyers call a 'Queen for a Day' interview, in which a defendant answers any questions from the prosecutors' team, including about his own case and other potential criminal activity he witnessed. ... It's still
 unclear what Gates, who outlasted Manafort in the campaign and later worked on the Trump inaugural efforts, could share that would be of value to the Russian collusion investigators, outside the Manafort case. The value of what a defendant says factors into the plea negotiation as both sides finalize the deal." Full story. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I think it's safe to say this has been a disappointing week." - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, following a number of failed votes on Thursday. 
 
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