Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Pennsylvania Supreme Court map could shake up midterms — Blackburn leads Corker in new poll — Rooney will leave Congress
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2018 09:05:31 -0600
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By Maggie Severns | 02/20/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Elena Schneider, Daniel Strauss and Kevin Robillard
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
ALL OVER THE MAP - Pennsylvania Supreme Court released its map, Republicans promise federal appeal: Democrats, hoping to retake the House, got a huge boost on Monday when the state Supreme Court released its congressional map for 2018. Under the previous map, Trump carried 12 of the 18 districts (and Republicans won 13). Early estimates of the court-drawn map show Trump carried 10 seats - opening a wider battlefield. Republican leaders said they "anticipate further action in federal court." But as GOP consultant Christopher Nicholas put it to us, this court-drawn map is "pretty close to a Democratic wet dream." Here's how key Pennsylvania districts would fare:
 
- Rep. Pat Meehan's suburban Philadelphia district turned much bluer, and Republicans will struggle to compete there. The open race has attracted several candidates, now that Meehan is not seeking reelection after revelations that he used taxpayer money to settle a sexual harassment case.
 
- Rep. Charlie Dent's Lehigh Valley seat is now harder for the GOP to hold without the moderate incumbent and the redrawn lines bringing in more Democratic territory.
 
- Rep. Ryan Costello, an already-targeted suburban Philadelphia Republican, also faces a bluer district after the new map added all of Chester County and the Democratic-leaning city of Reading. Costello will likely face Democrat Chrissy Houlahan, a nonprofit executive who outraised the congressman last quarter and is now running on more favorable terrain.
 
- Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's district remains an electoral battleground. GOP Reps. Mike Kelly, Keith Rothfus and Scott Perry will find themselves in seats that have moved toward Democrats, but still lean Republican.
 
- Rep. Matt Cartwright, who already faced a serious challenge from Republican John Chrin in a district that shifted toward Trump, now represents a redder seat.
 
- Rep. Lloyd Smucker, who's facing two well-funded Democratic challengers, saw his Lancaster-based district turn a deeper shade of red.
 
- And that special election - Next month's special congressional election for the western Pennsylvania seat vacated by former Rep. Tim Murphy is proceeding under the old district lines. The new map includes a southwestern seat that is even more Republican than the already-GOP-leaning district - though Conor Lamb, the Democratic nominee, finds his home in Rothfus' more-competitive district on the November map.
 
- Check out our full readout on the new lines here - "New Pennsylvania map gives Democrats a big boost in midterms," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider. Full story.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - "PAC poll: Blackburn leads Corker in Tennessee GOP primary," by POLITICO's Kevin Robillard: "Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn has a healthy lead over Sen. Bob Corker in the GOP primary if Corker opts to re-enter the race for his seat, according to a new poll paid for by a super PAC supporting Blackburn. Blackburn has the support of 48 percent of likely GOP primary voters, compared to 29 percent support for Corker. American Future Fund Political Action paid for the poll, which Ragnar Research Partners conducted Feb. 14-19 among 926 likely GOP primary voters. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points." Full story. 
 
BIG ENDORSEMENT - Trump endorses Romney: President Donald Trump tweeted his support for Mitt Romney - who was a critic of the president during the 2016 elections - on Monday night. ".@MittRomney has announced he is running for the Senate from the wonderful State of Utah. He will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!" tweeted Trump. Romney replied with a tweet thanking Trump for his support.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 260
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
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You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
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FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Kelly Mazeski pops health care TV ad in IL-06: Democrat Kelly Mazeski, who's running to take on GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, released a TV ad centered on health care and her battle with breast cancer. Mazeski said she's "running for Congress to stop Trump's dangerous plan that hurts millions of Americans with pre-existing conditions and forces us to pay more for less care." The ad will air starting this week on cable stations in the district. Watch the ad here. 
 
- "Giffords gun control group goes after Rick Scott, running ads in four markets," reports the Tampa Bay Times: "Giffords PAC, founded by former Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, is spending 'a strong six figures' on a television ad attacking [Scott] for his defense of the 2011 'Glocks vs. docs' bill, the organization's executive director, Peter Ambler, said. ... The ad is running in the Tampa, Miami, Orlando and Palm Beach markets starting Tuesday, Ambler said." Full story.
 
- EMILY's List IE Women Vote! up with first 2018 buy: EMILY's List's independent expenditure Women Vote! is out with its first 2018 TV buy in Texas, backing Democrat Veronica Escobar in her primary to replace Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who's running for the Senate. The English- and Spanish-language TV ads, backed by a six-figure buy, highlight Escobar's endorsement from O'Rourke. Check out the English-language ad here and the Spanish-language ad here. 
 
- Meier releases second TV ad: Ed Meier, who's running a contested Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, is out with his second TV ad that focuses on Trump, retelling a story about his daughter who asked him after the 2016 election: "I thought bullies never win." Meier said he told her "you have to keep standing up for what's right." Watch the ad here. 
 
SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - DEBATE NIGHT - "District 18 debate between Lamb, Saccone featured sharp exchanges," via The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Mr. Saccone repeatedly called attention to the 33-year-old Mr. Lamb's lack of experience in elected office, portraying the race as a choice of 'record over rhetoric.' Mr. Saccone, who was first elected to the state House in 2010, said that Mr. Lamb would vote in lockstep with Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, who leads House Democrats. Mr. Lamb has said he prefers new leadership in the party, though he has received support from Democratic whip Steny Hoyer. ... For his part, Mr. Lamb tried to use his rival's experience against him, calling Mr. Saccone
 'part of the same crowd in Harrisburg who have shut down the government there.'" Full story.
 
 - "POLITICO Magazine: Is Conor Lamb the next big Democratic upset?": "[Conor] Lamb, the Democratic candidate in a neck-and-neck special election on March 13, has to hope the people of Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District will likewise listen to what he has to say before judging him by his party affiliation. ... Even though registered Democrats technically outnumber Republicans here by 70,000, Trump won the district by nearly 20 percentage points. Mitt Romney and John McCain posted similar margins." Full story.
 
SIREN - "Trump's recovery has Democrats fretting over midterms," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle: "House Democrats are heading into the throes of the election haunted by many of the same problems that dogged them in 2016: A Trump-dominated news cycle, a message that's struggling to break through and sharp divisions within the party about how to fix it.
 
"Now many Democrats say they're watching nervously as polls start to trend in Republicans' favor - and worry they're witnessing the beginning of a slow motion train wreck that they have no idea how to stop. There are still widespread disagreements within the diverse 193-member caucus about what campaign message Democrats should rally around in the final months before the midterms and even who should be the party's chief messenger." Full story. 
 
DEPARTURE LOUNGE - "Rooney joins long list of House Republicans not seeking reelection," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo: "Rep. Tom Rooney announced Monday he will not seek reelection, making him the latest in a growing list of incumbent Republicans who are not going to compete for their House seat. ... Trump won the seat with 62 percent of the vote, and it's highly unlikely that Democrats can pose a real challenge to a Republican seeking to run." Full story.
 
POLLING DATA - Goucher poll gives Hogan 61 percent approval rating: A new Goucher College poll finds Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan has a 61 percent approval rating among adults in the state, with 18 percent disapproval. But he has just a 47 percent to 43 percent lead against "another candidate" among registered voters with an interest in the governor's race. Forty-seven percent of Marylanders said he's distanced himself from Trump "the right amount," while 22 percent think he hasn't done enough to distance himself from the president. Just 10 percent think he's distanced himself too much from the president. Forty-six percent think Hogan is moderate, 29 percent think he's conservative, and 7
 percent think he's a liberal. Full results here. 
 
THE PIVOT - "Republicans race to reverse midterm recruitment failures," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "For months, Republican leaders watched in horror as hordes of their most sought-after midterm recruits passed on running, spooked by what increasingly looked like an electoral beatdown in the making. But leading GOP officials in recent weeks have seen their fortunes brighten - if only slightly - and the party is now scrambling to take advantage by luring otherwise reluctant candidates back into targeted races across the country. 
 
"On Friday, they notched their most significant success yet when Rep. Kevin Cramer reversed his earlier decision, and months of waffling, by announcing his challenge to North Dakota's Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp." Full story.
 
STAFFING UP - Democrat Richard Cordray's Ohio gubernatorial campaign announced Monday that it had brought on Nelson Devezin as political director and Samantha Herd as chief of staff to Betty Sutton, Cordray's running mate. 
 
NEW RELEASE - "Bon Iver manager Kyle Frenette to run for Congress in Sean Duffy's district," the Wausau Daily Herald reports: "Kyle Frenette, founder of artist management firm Middle West Management, plans to mount a bid for the Democratic nomination for the 7th Congressional District. The seat has been held by U.S. Rep. Sean Duffy, a Wausau Republican, since 2011. Frenette, of Chetek, has managed Eau Claire native Justin Vernon and his indie folk band Bon Iver since 2007, helping catapult the band to success. Bon Iver debuted that year with 'For Emma, Forever Ago,' which went platinum, and has since produced two other full-length albums." Full story.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Obama was President up to, and beyond, the 2016 Election. So why didn't he do something about Russian meddling?" President Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend.
 
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