Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Digital consultants cheer Parscale's hire, but Dems fret — Abrams, Cagle lead in Ga. — Pro-Trump group's polls leak
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2018 09:04:05 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 03/02/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
CONSULTANT WATCH - "Digital consultants cheer after Trump taps Parscale: But some Democrats fear their party is falling behind the GOP in digital campaigning," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "The elevation of Brad Parscale to serve as the campaign manager for President Donald Trump's reelection bid is a watershed moment for digital strategists, whose opportunities to run campaigns have been few and far between. ... 'Campaigns are starting to realize that the digital consultant is best positioned to know where advertising dollars should be spent,' said Michael Duncan, a GOP digital strategist who is a partner at Calvary LLC. 'It's exciting for all digital consultants, whether you're a
 Republican or a Democrat.' 
 
"But any excitement on the Democratic side is mixed with alarm, as operatives fear their party is still too focused on television ads, has siloed internet-first operatives and is falling further and further behind the GOP in the digital politics wars. 'On a scale of 1-to-worried about the future of our party, I'm worried about the future of our party,' said Greg Berlin, the founder of Mothership Strategies, which ran the digital operations for Jon Ossoff and now-Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) in high-profile special elections in 2017. 'The speed with which Republicans are moving to run digital-first campaigns is blazingly obvious. In no other industry is digital still fighting for a seat at the
 table.' ... 
 
"[S]trategists argue Democrats are still denying career advancement to talented digital-first operatives. 'If you're a digital staffer, the highest you can get is digital director. There's no progressive or Democratic organization out there today that has promoted its digital director to president or CEO or executive director,' said Tim Lim, the founder of Lim Consulting and a former partner at Bully Pulpit Interactive. 'Republicans have broken this digital ceiling.' ... Patrick McHugh, the executive director of Priorities USA, said many Democrats have spent as little as 5 percent of their advertising budget on digital, while Republicans follow corporate America in spending between 25 and
 30 percent. The group plans on spending $75 million this cycle, entirely on digital. ...
 
"Cameron said Parscale's early appointment would bring wide benefits to Trump's campaign, effectively giving the campaign a two-and-a-half-year head start on building custom tools and optimizing and refining strategies. 'Parscale won't need to waste his time convincing,' he said. 'He'll be able to spend all his time implementing.'" Full story. 
 
- "Cramer Ahead of Heitkamp in NRSC North Dakota Poll," by Roll Call's Bridget Bowman: "Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer, who recently entered the North Dakota Senate race, leads Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp by 5 points, according to a poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and shared first with Roll Call. ... Cramer, a three-term congressman, took 49 percent of vote in the NRSC poll compared to 44 percent for the incumbent. Seven percent of respondents were undecided. GOP polling firm The Tarrance Group surveyed 500 likely registered voters through live landline and cell phone interviews from Feb. 18-20. The poll had a margin of error of 4.5 points." Full
 story. 
 
SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - FIRST IN SCORE - "CLF attacks Lamb as 'two-faced' in new PA-18 TV ad," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "The Congressional Leadership Fund released its latest TV ad in this month's special congressional election in Pennsylvania, attacking Democrat Conor Lamb for being 'two-faced' about his support for Nancy Pelosi. 'Fresh face or two-faced? Lamb won't admit he's a Pelosi liberal,' the ad's narrator says. 'The truth: Lamb won't protect seniors and Medicare. He supports Pelosi's massive Medicare cuts.'" Full story.  Watch the ad here. 
 
- "Lamb outraises Saccone by nearly five-to-one margin in Pennsylvania special election," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "Democrat Conor Lamb outraised his GOP opponent in this month's special congressional election in Western Pennsylvania by a nearly five-to-one margin over the first seven weeks of the year, according to new campaign finance filings Thursday night. Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone's poor fundraising - he raised just $703,000 from January 1 through February 21, compared to Lamb's $3.3 million haul - has forced Republican outside groups to spend valuable dollars to drag Saccone across the finish line in a district President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage
 points." Full story. 
 
- "In tight Pennsylvania race, GOP struggles to land a blow against Conor Lamb," by the Washington Post's David Weigel in Bridgeville, Pa.: "First, Republicans in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District accused Democrat Conor Lamb of supporting Nancy Pelosi for speaker of the House. Next, they talked up the tax cuts that the GOP had passed through Congress in December. Most recently, the GOP turned, perhaps desperately, to a different audience - Democrats, some of whom in Allegheny County began receiving cheeky direct mail thanking Lamb for protecting 'our Second Amendment rights.' The race in the 18th District, which was drawn to safely reelect a Republican congressman, only to see him
 resign last year, has closed to single digits despite an onslaught of Republican spending. On the air and in mailboxes, it has previewed many of the attacks Republicans may use this year to protect their control of the House of Representatives. Despite Lamb being outspent by as much as a 17-to-1 ratio, Republican Rick Saccone lost much of his lead, according to public polls." Full story. 
 
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POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - "Georgia poll: Abrams, Cagle lead governor primaries, but Republicans likely headed to runoff," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle leads the May 22 Republican primary for governor but is well short of the majority he needs to avoid a runoff, according to a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll that also shows former state Rep. Stacey Abrams ahead in the Democratic race. The poll finds Cagle leading the GOP field with 27 percent support. Four candidates are vying for the second spot in the runoff: Secretary of State Brian Kemp is at 13 percent, businessman and Navy SEAL Clay Tippins is at 12 percent, former state Sen. Hunter Hill is at 11
 percent and state Sen. Michael Williams is at 5 percent. Nearly a third, 31 percent, are undecided. 
 
"Meanwhile, the Mason-Dixon poll found a majority of likely Democratic primary voters, 54 percent, are undecided. Abrams leads state Rep. Stacey Evans, 29 percent to 17 percent. With only two major candidates for the Democratic nomination, a runoff is unlikely - though the filing deadline for the race is March 9. Each Democrat is about equally competitive against Caygle in a general election matchup. Against Abrams, Caygle leads, 45 percent to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Against Evans, Caygle leads, 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided." Full story.  Full poll results here. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 251
 
Upcoming election dates - Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
BEHIND THE CURTAIN - "Dark money group America First Policies is running a pro-Trump polling operation. Here is an inside look at its secretive work," by CNBC's Christina Wilkie: "America First Policies, a nonprofit group with close ties to President Donald Trump, has hired Trump's pollsters to conduct a wide range of political polling and research that experts say resembles the kind of expensive work the Republican National Committee has performed for prior GOP administrations. Such a practice breaks with decades of tradition and raises concerns about potential coordination between the pro-Trump dark money group, the White House and the RNC. ... 
 
"Over the past six months, CNBC has obtained more than 50 documents through an obscure portal on the America First Policies website. ... A September poll showed that America First Policies was exploring ways to defeat Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake in a primary, a month before Flake, a Trump critic, announced his retirement. ... According to the group's February polling, the largest percentage of voters agreed with Nancy Pelosi's comment that worker bonuses stemming from the GOP tax bill were 'crumbs' compared with corporate windfalls." Full story.
 
YOUTH IN REVOLT - Pew Research poll shows millennials more excited, more Democratic: "[A] a majority of Millennials (59%) affiliate with the Democratic Party (35%) or lean Democratic (24%). Just 32% identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP. ... By greater than two-to-one (62% to 29%), more Millennial voters say, if the election were held today, they would vote for the Democrat in their district or lean toward the Democrat than prefer the Republican candidate. ... The gap between Millennials and other generations in the midterm congressional vote is wider thus far in the 2018 cycle than in previous midterm years. ... Millennials' early interest in this year's midterms is greater than
 for the past two congressional elections. This year, 62% of Millennial registered voters say they are looking forward to the midterms; at similar points in 2014 and 2010, fewer Millennials said they were looking forward to the elections (46% in 2014, 39% in 2010)." Full story. 
 
-Where to watch for it: On Thursday morning, the Millennial Action Project and the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement at Tufts University released their list of the 10 congressional districts where the youth vote could make the largest difference in 2018, based on their Youth Electoral Signifiance Index. The top 10: IA-1, MN-1, MN-3, MI-11, CO-6, MN-8, IL-6, NE-2, MN-2, and CA-39. Full story here. 
 
THE MAP - "Planned Parenthood to target 8 states, spend $20 million as part of midterm battle plan," by CNN's Eric Bradner: "Planned Parenthood's political arm is targeting eight states with competitive Senate and governor's races in its largest-ever midterm election campaign. The offensive is set to cost $20 million, an initial mark that the organization's officials say is all but certain to be exceeded. ... The initial list of targets includes eight states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. ... A handful of House races [is] likely to join the list of targets, with officials eyeing contests in California, New Jersey, New York and Texas as
 potential targets. And state legislative races and attorneys general contests are also on a watch list of races that could be added." Full story. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List backs Elaine Luria in VA-02: EMILY's List endorsed Democrat Elaine Luria, a retired Navy commander who's running in a crowded primary to take on GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. 
 
- End Citizens United announces new round of endorsements: End Citizens United added six Democratic House challengers to its endorsement list, including Lauren Baer (FL-18), Liz Watson (IN-09), Matt Morgan (MI-01), Kathy Manning (NC-13), Tom Malinowski (NJ-07) and Rick Neal (OH-15). The group also endorsed Gary Trauner in the Wyoming Senate race. 
 
POLLS, POLLS, POLLS, CONT. - Mason-Dixon poll puts Hogan's approval rating at 63 percent: A new Mason-Dixon poll of the Maryland governor's race gives GOP Gov. Larry Hogan a 63 percent approval rating, with just 26 percent disapproval. But head-to-head matchups with Democratic candidates are closer: Hogan leads Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker 51 percent to 36 percent; Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz 49 percent to 34 percent; and former NAACP President Ben Jealous 50 percent to 33 percent. As Mason-Dixon puts it: "While more than half of the state's Democratic voters approve of Hogan's job performance, only about one-in-three are currently inclined to re-elect him.
 As the Democratic primary race progresses and his potential general election opponents become more familiar to Democrats, it will be a challenge for Hogan to hold his current cross-over vote. Even a mere decline in support of 5-points among Democrats would make it mathematically challenging for Hogan to hold his support base above 50% in a one-on-one race." Full results here. 
 
ON THE AIR - "Moser's closing ad in TX-07: 'The school shootings have got to stop,'" by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Democrat Laura Moser is out with a new TV ad focusing on gun violence in next week's Democratic primary in Texas' 7th Congressional District. The ad opens with the names of recent mass shootings, with Moser's voice saying, 'again and again and again.' 'The school shootings have got to stop,' Moser says. 'When I send my kids off to school in the morning, I should only have to worry that my son has finished his math homework, that my daughter finishes her lunch. I shouldn't have to worry it'll be the last day I'll see them because our government is not doing its job.' 'Only
 a tiny fraction of members of Congress are mothers of school-age children,' Moser says. 'Do you think this would still be happening if we had more?'" Full story. Watch the ad here. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Semen is a very common way for us to donate." - Texas Deer Association treasurer Fred Gonzalez, explaining to the Dallas Morning News why state House candidate Ana Lisa Garza collected $51,000 in the form of deer semen. 
 
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