Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Pre-primary reports out in Illinois — The endangered GOP senator who thinks Justice Kennedy could save him — Scott Walker sounds the alarm in Wisconsin
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2018 09:03:59 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 03/09/2018 10:00 AM EDT

WIth Zach Montellaro and Kevin Robillard
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
CASH RACE - Pre-primary reports out of Illinois: Still recovering from Texas? So are we. But Illinois is right around the corner, and we've got a breakdown of where the contested primaries and the interesting general election races stand 10 days out. 
 
- IL-03: Marie Newman outraised Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski in the last two months. Newman, who's drawn national support for her progressive bid, brought in $530,000, while Lipinski raised $230,000. But Lipinski holds a wide lead in cash on hand, $1.3 million to Newman's $370,000. Lipinski also dropped more money on the race, $510,000 to Newman's $400,000. 
 
- IL-05: Democrat Benjamin Thomas Wolf, the "cannabis candidate" who's now accused of abusing women and inflating his resume, raised $5,000 in the final two months of the race. That means Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, sitting on $610,000 in cash, probably feels pretty good. Quigley, for his part, raised $40,000 over that period, along with spending $400,000.
 
- IL-06: Several Democrats are hoping to take on GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, and they're all about neck-and-neck in fundraising. Carole Cheney, an attorney, raised $110,000, finishing with $120,000 in cash on hand. Kelly Mazeski, a financial consultant, raised $160,000 with $150,000 in cash on hand. Mazeski, who's up on TV ads in the Chicago TV market, spent $510,000 over the last two months. Becky Anderson Wilkins, a Naperville city councilwoman, raised $70,000 with $60,000 in the bank. So far, Amanda Howland and Sean Casten have not filed their pre-primary reports. Meanwhile, Roskam raised $300,000, closing the period with $1.7 million in the bank. 
 
- IL-12: Democrat Brendan Kelly outraised Republican Rep. Mike Bost in the last two months, but neither candidate faces a serious primary challenger. Kelly raised $240,000, while Bost only brought in $60,000. Bost still holds a cash-on-hand advantage, but barely. Bost has $680,000 in the bank, while Kelly has $660,000 in cash on hand. 
 
- IL-13: Republican Rep. Rodney Davis doesn't face a primary, but he raised $120,000, closing the period with $1.1 million in the bank. Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, a businesswoman who's picked up an EMILY's List endorsement, has not yet filed. Democrat Jon Ebel, a college professor, raised $61,000, COH $120,000
 
- IL-14: Democrat Lauren Underwood raised just under $200,000, along with $160,000 in cash on hand. Republican Rep. Randy Hultgren raised $50,000 with $480,000 in the bank. 
 
- IL-17: Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos no longer has a serious Republican challenger, nor a primary opponent, but she raised $270,000 with $2.5 million in cash on hand. 
 
RUNOFF UPDATE - Trevi&ntilde;o advances to runoff in TX-23: The San Antonio Express-News reported that Rick Trevi&ntilde;o, a teacher and an early advocate of Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign, advanced to the Democratic runoff against Gina Ortiz Jones. Trevi&ntilde;o ran a shoestring operation, airing no TV ads. But he told the Express-News that he "made it a point to target areas that were never canvassed." Trevi&ntilde;o beat out Judy Canales and Jay Hulings, a former federal prosecutor who operatives expected to advance to the runoff.
 
SUPREME COURT VACANCY? - "The endangered GOP senator who thinks Justice Kennedy could save him," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Dean Heller knows he's the most vulnerable Republican senator in the country. But he thinks Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy might just help him hang on to his seat. 'Kennedy is going to retire around sometime early summer,' Heller predicted in Las Vegas last week, according to audio of an event he spoke at that was obtained by POLITICO. 'Which I'm hoping will get our base a little motivated because right now they're not very motivated. But I think a new Supreme Court justice will get them motivated.' 
 
"The 45-minute recording of the press-shy Heller shows a senator defending President Donald Trump repeatedly, breaking only delicately with the president on issues like trade and gun control. It's in line with the tightrope Heller has to walk to have any hope of winning reelection against a Trump-inspired Republican primary opponent and a highly touted Democratic general election challenger - in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016." Full story. 
 
MESSAGE REBOOT - "Scott Walker sounds the alarm in Wisconsin," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Scott Walker is used to making Wisconsin Democrats angry. But the two-term Republican governor's reelection campaign is sounding new alarms about his bid for a third term in recent weeks, retooling Walker's message and approach in response to Democratic enthusiasm and victories at the ballot box, including in a Republican-leaning state Senate district in January. The plan, Walker's campaign says, is to highlight what he has done in two terms as governor - his campaign slogan is 'Moving Wisconsin Forward' - while cajoling GOP base voters into action by warning that conservative reforms are
 threatened by energized Democrats. The idea, Walker said in a brief interview last month, is 'to make the message clear that Wisconsin's working. And if it's working, why would we turn back?'" Full story. 
 
TAKE BACK THE RADIO - Not One Penny drops radio ad in PA-18: Not One Penny, a pro-Democratic group, is launching a radio ad in the House special election, attacking Republican Rick Saccone for "his tax plan [that] hurts Western Pennsylvanians." "A majority of Americans will pay higher taxes once it's fully phased in," the radio ad says. The 60-second radio ad is part of a six-figure buy. Listen to the ad here. 
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Wisconsin Next PAC starts radio buy for Vukmir: Wisconsin Next, a super PAC backing state Sen. Leah Vukmir in Wisconsin's GOP Senate primary, is up with a radio ad. The 60-second ad praises Vukmir and Walker for passing a "bold plan to rein in the unions" back in 2011 and notes Walker has praised her as a "great leader" and an "outstanding lawmaker." Listen to the ad here. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 243
 
Upcoming election dates - Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
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SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - NEW ADS - Lamb releases TV ad on 'dark money': "Democrat Conor Lamb released a new TV ad in next week's special congressional election in western Pennsylvania, attacking Republicans for 'trying to drown out the truth' in their outside spending." Watch the ad here. Full story.
 
- American First Action out with new TV ad: America First Action, the pro-Trump super PAC, is out with a TV ad that tells voters they "can't trust" Lamb. Lamb "wants you to believe he won't side with D.C. liberals," flashing an image of Nancy Pelosi. "But unfortunately for Lamb, we know the truth." It also attacks Lamb for opposing the GOP tax law.
 
- Lamb team pops digital ad on opioid czar: In time for White House counselor Kellyanne Conway's visit, Lamb released a new digital ad that attacks Republican Rick Saccone for saying as a state legislator when asked about funding for the opioid crisis that "we're going to try and cut the budget." Conway has come under criticism for upheaval in the White House's drug policy office. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Family Research Council releases digital ad on abortion: The Family Research Council is out with a digital ad saying that Lamb "supports extreme late-term abortion for any reason." The ad also says that Saccone is a "pro-life champion." The ad concludes: "Only one candidate is pro-life, Rick Saccone." 
 
- Jones sends fundraising email for Lamb: Alabama Sen. Doug Jones sent a fundraising email on behalf of Lamb, a fellow Democrat seeking a special election upset. 
 
MORE ON THE AIR - Tester places first ad buy in Montana: Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is placing his first ad buy of the cycle, according to Advertising Analytics. The two-term incumbent has placed $27,000 on cable and $26,000 on broadcast. The ads are set to start airing March 13. 
 
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CYBER WATCH - "Bredesen campaign says it may have been hacked," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen's Senate campaign fears they are the first campaign in 2018 to fall victim to hacking, the campaign's top lawyer wrote in a letter to the FBI's Memphis office. In the letter, campaign lawyer Robert Cooper Jr., a former state attorney general, says the campaign fears it was hacked after receiving a series of emails last week as Bredesen was readying his first television ad buy of the campaign. In the lead-up to the buy, an impostor pretending to be the campaign's media buyer and media consultant sent multiple emails requesting the campaign wire additional
 funds to an international bank account. The campaign recognized the fake emails and didn't send the money." Full story.
 
GENERAL ELECTION PREP - Ohio Republican Party moves to authorize RNC spending to boost DeWine, Renacci: "Ohio Republicans have moved to authorize the RNC to spend money to boost party-endorsed candidates for governor and Senate in their primaries against credible GOP opponents." Full story.
 
DELAYED VOTE - "FEC may vote next week to consider online political ad rules," by POLITICO's Li Zhou: "The Federal Election Commission may vote to consider a proposal for online political ad disclosure rules by Tuesday or Wednesday, Republican Chairwoman Caroline Hunter said today. The FEC postponed a vote originally scheduled for [Thursday] as commissioners continue to negotiate the details." Full story.
 
TREND ALERT - "Veterans Running as Democrats Challenge GOP on Guns in Key Races," by Bloomberg's Arit John and Yueqi Yang: "From New Hampshire's White Mountains to the Denver suburbs, a new crop of Democratic congressional candidates is campaigning on what's been a difficult topic for the party, especially in rural and conservative areas: gun control. But these aren't the stereotypical Democrats portrayed by gun-rights supporters as elitists who haven't held a firearm. They're U.S. military veterans who say new steps must be taken to prevent weapons of war from being used in domestic mass shootings." Full story.
 
PURE MICHIGAN - "Teamsters to endorse Whitmer for Michigan governor" by Politico Pro's Ian Kullgren: "Teamsters President James Hoffa Jr. will endorse Democratic candidate Gretchen Whitmer for Michigan governor on Friday, helping her lock up the nomination after a near-revolt from organized labor earlier this year." Full story. 
 
- "Gretchen Whitmer unveils first ad for Michigan gubernatorial race" by Detroit Metro Times' Lee DeVito: "Dubbed 'In Your Corner,' the one and a half minute-long spot features Whitmer talking directly to the camera while walking through various locations - touting her hard-working roots, laying out her priorities as governor, and even getting her family to make a cameo." Full story. Watch the ad here. 
 
STAFFING UP - Brown hires deputy campaign manager: Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has hired Semedrian Smith as deputy campaign manager. Smith was a top staffer on the political team for now-Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam in 2017, and worked at the Democratic Party of Virginia in 2016. She's previously worked in Wisconsin, Arizona and Texas. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Nobody knows what it is, so we can't do anything until we know what it is." - Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake on President Donald Trump's tariffs, POLITICO reported. 
 
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