Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Final days in PA-18 — Big donors target Baldwin — Orange County Crush for the GOP
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2018 08:01:50 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 03/12/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Daniel Strauss
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
THE FINAL DAYS - "Republicans wage 11th-hour blitz in Pa. special election," by POLTICO's Elena Schneider and Alex Isenstadt in Moon Township, Pa.: "Republicans mounted a last-ditch stand here to save their struggling candidate for a House seat deep in the heart of Trump country, unleashing the party's full arsenal to stave off a major embarrassment for the president and GOP heading into the midterms.
 
"Nearly every corner of the national party was involved in the final push over the weekend - from the Republican National Committee, which deployed staffers from Washington to knock on doors; to a cash-flush GOP super PAC that orchestrated an under-the-radar effort to diminish Democratic hopeful Conor Lamb's standing with liberal voters; to the powerful Koch political network, which is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a mail and field deployment campaign ahead of Tuesday's closely-watched special election." Full story. 
 
- "At Pennsylvania rally, Trump endorses himself," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider and Brent D. Griffiths in Moon Township, Pa.: "President Donald Trump got business out of the way quickly Saturday night - urging voters to elect Republican congressional candidate Rick Saccone, who's locked in an unexpectedly tough special election battle in Pennsylvania - before turning to the main subject of the night: himself. ... He also talked about the size of the crowd, thanking the fire marshal - a vintage campaign line - and recounted how Pennsylvania sealed his 2016 victory. He also unveiled his own new slogan for the 2020 campaign: 'Keep America Great!' ... 
 
"National and local Republicans hope Trump's visit will help stoke enthusiasm here in the final days ahead of Tuesday's special election. The race has drawn millions in outside spending as the GOP tries to avoid a disaster in a race that should have been an easy win - and in which a loss would be widely read as a referendum on the president." Full results. 
 
THE SENATE MAP - "Republicans target Baldwin early and often in Wisconsin," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "[Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy] Baldwin, who is running for a second term in 2018, has faced more outside television spending than any of the other nine Democrats running for reelection in states won by President Donald Trump, much of it funded by the powerful Koch Brothers network or by Illinois-based megadonor Richard Uihlein. The Koch network, in particular, has emerged as a major force in Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott Walker stared down unions in 2011 and has overseen a conservative revolution since. 
 
"The spending is beginning to worry Democrats, who are hoping Baldwin's progressive populism can stem Wisconsin's lurch to the right. While the GOP has more obvious midterm targets - Trump won Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and North Dakota by more than 10 percentage points, and won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point - the heavy outside spending targeting Baldwin could elevate Wisconsin into the top tier of Senate races. 'There's a lot of people who only get their news from local television stations, and every other commercial is a negative ad attacking Tammy,' said Mary Ginnebaugh, the chair of the Democratic Party in Brown County, which includes Green Bay. 'I'd be lying
 if I said I wasn't worried.'" Full story. 
 
- "Eric Hovde gives high-profile GOP speech in Madison, remains undecided on U.S. Senate race," by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber: "Addressing Dane County Republicans, the Madison businessman discussed his family's roots in Norway and Wisconsin, quoted from an article that extolled 1950s-style values and lamented: 'Folks, our culture is in trouble, and I mean serious trouble. I like to say the left has won the cultural wars that started in the late '60's, and the American people have lost.' ... For months, Hovde has teased out a potential candidacy and reportedly has looked to hire staff. His appearance Saturday night at a high-profile event fueled speculation of a run." Full
 story. 
 
THE HOUSE MAP - "Orange Crush: Inside the GOP Struggle to Hold the Southern California Suburbs," by POLITICO Magazine's Gabriel Debenedetti in Mission Viejo, Calif.: "All is not well for the Republicans of Orange County. ... The long-term demographic shifts that have basically doomed the Republican Party throughout the rest of the state may finally have reached the GOP's prized California hideaway. And in Washington, the Republican Party is led by a man whose crass style of politics clashes with the sensibilities of the chinos-and-mimosas conservatives and sandals-and-surfboards libertarians who still run this place. ... When I asked [Rep. Mimi] Walters if her race is competitive, her
 answer was a straightforward 'No.' She doesn't buy that her seat is up for grabs, and she insisted that tax cuts are the reason Republicans are going to win in this hotbed of fiscal conservatism, not to mention keep their majority." Full story. 
 
BOLD STRATEGY - "Chicago's Lipinski spends campaign cash slowly despite primary race," by POLTICO Illinois' Natasha Korecki: "While the conservative Democrat is under assault from the left by the best-organized and best-funded opponent he's faced, [Dan] Lipinski sat nearly dormant on the airwaves for three weeks as newcomer Marie Newman leveled attacks. Newman began 2018 with less than $237,000 in her campaign account to mount a primary challenge, while Lipinski had six times that, at $1.7 million. Yet it was Newman who was first in the race to air TV ads during a critical period in the primary, the same period when polls showed the little-known candidate made huge gains in name ID. ... 
 
"Newman and the super PAC supporting her, Citizens for a Better Illinois, pummeled Lipinski with ads linking him to President Donald Trump and criticizing his stance opposing abortion rights and his vote against the DREAM Act, a bill to protect young undocumented immigrants, with barely an on-air response. In the time Newman and supporters spent nearly $300,000 on ads, Lipinski had responded with just $54,000 in cable buys over two weeks." Full story. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 240
 
Upcoming election dates - Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
ON THE AIR - NEW THIS A.M. - Bredesen lays out Trump approach in new ad: Democratic former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen is out with his second ad of the race, this one laying out how he would approach President Donald Trump as a senator. "I'm not running against Donald Trump, I'm running for a Senate seat to represent the people of Tennessee," he says direct to camera. "I learned a long time ago to separate the message from the messenger. And there's a lot of things I don't personally like about Donald Trump, but he's the president of the United States, and if he has an idea that's he's pushing that's going to be good for the people of Tennessee, I'm going to be for it." Watch the ad here. 
 
PRIMARY CONCERNS - "Jenkins, Blankenship Leading in W.Va. GOP Senate Race," by the Wheeling Intelligencer's Joselyn King: "The survey by Harper Polling - and commissioned by Jenkins - also shows West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey losing considerable ground and falling to third place in the race to unseat U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. The polling lists Jenkins with 29 percent of the prospective Republican vote; Blankenship now close at 27 percent; and Morrisey at 19. Tom Willis and Jack Newbrough are each listed with 4 percent of the vote; and the sixth candidate, Bo Copley, at 2 percent. The survey reports the remaining 13 percent as undecided." Full story. 
 
- ON THE AIR - Jenkins debuts television ad: Jenkins is out with his first television ad of the primary, a 30-second spot where he aligns himself with Trump, emphasizes his roots in the state and notes his work combating the opioid epidemic. The spot ends with a shot of Jenkins and Trump together. "Working with Trump. West Virginia Values. Evan Jenkins," the narrator says at the end of the ad. Watch it here. 
 
PRIMARY CONCERNS, CONT. - "Rokita won't debate GOP primary opponents Messer and Braun in event held by independent commission," by the Indianapolis Star's Maureen Groppe: "Only two of the three Republicans running for the Senate will participate in an April 30 debate sponsored by the Indiana Debate Commission. Rep. Todd Rokita declined, citing scheduling conflicts and the desire to only participate in primary debates 'organized and moderated by conservative Republicans,' according to the commission. The nonpartisan group said Rokita is the first candidate in the commission's 10-year history to decline to participate in one of its debates. ... Rokita said Friday he will be participating in
 an April 23 debate sponsored by the Allen County GOP and moderated by WOWO host Pat Miller, whom Rokita called a 'trusted conservative voice.'" Full story. 
 
ENDORSEMENT WATCH - Michigan members of Congress endorse Whitmer: All four Michigan Democratic House members are endorsing Gretchen Whitmer's gubernatorial campaign in the state. Reps. Sandy Levin, Dan Kildee, Brenda Lawrence and Debbie Dingell are set to unveil the endorsements on Monday. The members all said "they will be in their communities, campaigning for Whitmer and turning out voters from now until election day," according to a release. 
 
WEB WARS - "Digital ads, social media hide political campaign messaging," by the Associated Press' Nicholas Riccardi: "The main events in a political campaign used to happen in the open: a debate, the release of a major TV ad or a public event where candidates tried to earn a spot on the evening news or the next day's front page. That was before the explosion of Facebook, Twitter and YouTube as political platforms. Now some of a campaign's most pivotal efforts happen in the often-murky world of social media, where ads can be targeted to ever-narrower slices of the electorate and run continuously with no disclosure of who is paying for them. Reporters cannot easily discern what voters are
 seeing, and hoaxes and forgeries spread instantaneously. Journalists trying to hold candidates accountable have a hard time keeping up." Full story. 
 
MONEY CHASE - "A super PAC has raised millions to mobilize black voters. Does it matter that its funders are white?" by the Center for Public Integrity's Lateshia Beachum: "BlackPAC's financial resources, for one, do not come from an army of small-dollar, 'grassroots' donors in the style of a politician such as Bernie Sanders. Instead, its primary bankrollers are a coterie of well-heeled organizations with deep ties to the national Democratic Party, such as the pro-Hillary Clinton super PAC Priorities USA Action. These groups, in turn, are funded in large part by wealthy, white men. Liberal, 'dark money' nonprofit groups that don't publicly disclose the identities of their own contributors
 are also among BlackPAC's bankrollers. Which leaves some to wonder: Is BlackPAC little more than a convenient rent-a-group for wealthy Democratic interests struggling to connect with black voters in a post-Barack Obama political era? BlackPAC's executive director, Adrianne Shropshire, said an upstart group such as hers can't achieve its activist goals without a significant infusion of cash." Full story. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The president likes making funny names." - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, explaining to "Meet The Press" host Chuck Todd why the president called California Rep. Maxine Waters "a low-IQ individual." 
 
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