Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP panics, but not really, over AZ-08 — Scott ready for Senate bid — New ads from Tester, Baldwin and Min
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2018 08:01:31 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 03/27/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Elena Schneider and Zach Montellaro
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
KEEP CALM AND CONTINUE PANICKING - "GOP scrambles to avert another election dumpster fire," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider and Alex Isenstadt: "Two weeks after the party's stunning defeat in a conservative district in southwestern Pennsylvania, Republicans are funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars into Arizona's 8th district, which President Donald Trump won by over 20 percentage points in 2016. The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday launched a coordinated, $170,000 TV buy with the campaign of candidate Debbie Lesko, according to a source familiar with the purchase. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a deep-pocketed GOP super PAC, is planning to spend around
 $100,000 on a phone and digital effort aimed at turning out conservative voters. Early voting starts on Wednesday. 
 
"The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, is spending around $280,000 on a field operation to bolster Lesko. She's running to replace GOP Rep. Trent Franks, an eight-term congressman who resigned from his seat last year after reports that he pressed female aides to serve as a surrogate mother. Trump's political team is also considering a range of options for getting involved in the race. Republicans insist the efforts are precautionary and that they fully expect to prevail in an April 24 special election. Two senior party officials who've reviewed polling in recent days said Lesko held a double-digit lead. ... 
 
"Lesko, a former state senator, is running against Hiral Tipirneni, a physician who's raised about $300,000 for her bid. Tipirneni has picked up some national support, including endorsements from former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords and End Citizens United. ... Democrats acknowledge that Tipirneni has a steep climb in the central Arizona district, which encompasses a mix of small towns and the western Phoenix suburbs, including Sun City, a large retirement community that served as former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's base of support. A poll conducted by the Democratic firm Lake Research for the Tiperneni campaign found that Lesko leads by 14 points, and that 59 percent of surveyed
 voters view Trump favorably. A memo accompanying the poll noted that Tipirneni must win over Republican voters by double-digits. ... 'Trent Franks did not have a strong Democratic opponent in multiple cycles, and we don't really know how a strong Democrat can fare,' said Tipirneni, who cited her support for 'strong and secure borders' as one of her moderate policy positions." Full story. 
 
GETTING IN - "Flush with cash and popularity, Scott appears ready to challenge Nelson for U.S. Senate," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: "The much-anticipated clash of Florida political titans will soon be official, as Florida Gov. Rick Scott, the two-term governor flush with cash and popularity, prepares to formalize his 2018 challenge to Bill Nelson, a three-term senator and the only statewide-elected Democrat. ... On Monday morning, Scott put to bed any lingering doubt about whether he would run when he said he would be making a 'major announcement' on April 9. His staff would not elaborate on specifics, but Jackie Schutz Zeckman, Scott's chief of staff, resigned over the weekend and is
 being replaced by longtime staffer Brad Piepenbrink. Schutz Zeckman is almost certain to end up on the campaign. She is one of Scott's most trusted advisers, serving on both his campaigns and at various posts during his eight years in the governor's mansion." Full story. 
 
-Reminder: Republicans have long said Scott's impact wouldn't just be felt in Florida, but that by forcing Democrats to spend in an expensive state, it would open up other opportunities for them on the Senate map. So far, the polls in the Sunshine State have tracked the generic ballot fairly closely, but the DSCC has been working to steadily build an arsenal of hits aimed at the governor. 
 
ON THE AIR - FIRST IN SCORE - Veteran goes direct to camera for Tester: Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's campaign is out with its second ad, featuring a local Air Force veteran testifying to his battle with PTSD and Tester's support of veterans. "Jon Tester's work in Washington helped me get my life back," the veteran says in the ad. "He's fought everyone back there for better veterans' facilities across our state. Montanans are tough, but Jon's delivering everything we need to take care of each other, too." Watch the ad here. 
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Min pops first TV ad in CA-45: Democrat Dave Min touts his endorsement from the California Democratic Party in his first TV ad in a crowded primary to take on GOP Rep. Mimi Walters. "With young kids, we know a mess when we see one," Min says, as his son drops a plate of mac and cheese. "And under Trump, Washington is a big one. They're not investing in education, the environment and health care for everyone." The ad, which will air districtwide on cable stations and on digital platforms, closes with Min saying, "our kids shouldn't be stuck with Trump's mess." Watch the ad here. 
 
- NEW THIS A.M. - Baldwin bashes Wall Street, highlights Brokaw in new ad: Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is out with a new ad where she highlights the story of Brokaw, Wis., which went bankrupt after a hedge fund took control of a local paper mill and closed it down, resulting in hundreds of job losses. "We cannot let these predators devastate our communities," she says. "So I'm working to stop these Wall Street hedge funds from destroying another town." Watch the ad here. 
 
HAPPENING TODAY - Pence to North Dakota: Vice President Mike Pence is traveling to North Dakota, where he'll attend a fundraiser in Fargo for GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer's bid for Senate. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 226
 
Upcoming election dates - Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: May 8.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
ON THE AIR, CONT. - Downing goes airborne in Montana: Veteran and businessman Troy Downing is out with a new ad in Montana's GOP Senate primary, contrasting his biography with Tester's. The ad shows Downing walking toward a fighter jet, mixed in with images as guitar-driven rock plays in the background. "Troy Downing is a Montana, war vet, helicopter and jet pilot and big supporter of President Trump," the narrator says. The ad then cuts to the image of a man on a tractor in the middle of the field playing a trumpet. "Jon Tester was a middle school music teacher, plays the trumpet. He fights against our president every day," the narrator says. "So who should we send to the Senate? The
 trumpeter? Or the Trump supporter?" the narrator asks as the plane dives low, knocking the trumpet-playing farmer off his tractor and sending his instrument flying through the air. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Wallace releases TV ad in PA-01: Democrat Scott Wallace is launching two TV ads in his Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the newly redrawn district. In both, Wallace promises to "stand up to President Trump." One ad features Wallace's daughters, who say that "our dad's been fighting for change his whole life," detailing his resume as a general counsel in the U.S. Senate and a nonprofit executive who's "led the fight against climate change." The second ad hammers Trump, his "war on the truth" and his support for the NRA. The ads are part of a $230,000 buy, airing this week on cable stations and expanding to broadcast stations next week. Watch "Change" here and "We
 Knew" here. 
 
2020 WATCH - "Buttigeg Gets Closer to a 2020 Campaign," by POLITICO Magazine's Edward-Isaac Dovere in Topeka, Kan.: "Pete Buttigieg's PAC is investing money here - but also in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Colorado. And Iowa, per an announcement coming Tuesday. Next month, he'll campaign in Ohio. It's not happenstance. Nor is keeping on Lis Smith, the hard-charging political operative who makes sure he's constantly in the news. Or keeping up with Obama strategist David Axelrod, who recommended he hire Smith in the first place for the Democratic National Committee chair race that put him on Democrats' radar last year. Or quietly building relationships over dinners and drinks with big-name
 Democrats, or courting national reporters, or wooing donors for his PAC, or digging in on political advertising research. Buttigieg is getting closer to a presidential race. And serious people are telling the South Bend, Indiana mayor, who'd be the first major presidential candidate who's either openly gay or an Afghanistan veteran or a millennial, to take it seriously." Full story. 
 
WEB WARS - Hawley out with two new web ads hitting McCaskill: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley is out with two new digital ads attacking his opponent, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The first ad hits McCaskill for saying former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's comments about Trump voters looking "backward" were "taken out of context." The second uses footage from the same interview to make the case that Missouri voters will want "something completely different" in November. Watch the ads here and here. 
 
GOING NOWHERE FAST - "Justice and FEC asked to investigate Cambridge Analytica," by POLITICO's Lorraine Woellert: "In complaints filed with the Justice Department and Federal Election Commission, the nonpartisan group Common Cause said Cambridge Analytica and its affiliate, SCL Group Limited, violated a ban on foreign nationals participating in the 'decision-making process' of campaigns or political committees." Full story. 
 
- "Campaign Legal Center files FEC complaint against McDaniel, super PAC," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "A campaign finance watchdog is filing an FEC complaint against state Sen. Chris McDaniel's Senate campaign in Mississippi, alleging he is illegally coordinating with a super PAC supporting his candidacy. The complaint from the Campaign Legal Center alleges Remember Mississippi - which is backed by GOP megadonors Richard Uihlein, Robert Mercer and others - is effectively under the control of McDaniel's campaign and gave McDaniel an improper in-kind contribution in the form of organizing campaign events earlier this month, not long after McDaniel launched his campaign." Full story.
 
-McDaniel's response: "The complaint is completely bogus," McDaniel said. "When your candidate is in third place and President Trump opposes your candidate, you file an FEC complaint. It's just another establishment dirty trick."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List backs Ellen Lipton in MI-09: EMILY's List announced its endorsement of Democrat Ellen Lipton, wading into the primary to replace retiring Rep. Sandy Levin that includes the congressman's son. Lipton, a former state legislator, is running against several Democrats, including Andy Levin. 
 
GETTING THE NOD - SBA List endorses Senate, House candidates: Susan B. Anthony's List, an anti-abortion rights group, announced endorsements in three House races, including Christina Hagan (OH-16), Carol Miller (WV-03) and Carla Nelson (MN-01). SBA List is also backing Karin Housley, the Republican front-runner for the GOP primary in the race to challenge Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota. 
 
- NewDemPAC added 16 House candidates to its 'watch list': NewDemPAC added 16 House Democratic challengers to its "Candidate Watch List," including Josh Harder (CA-10), Katie Hill (CA-25), Josh Butner (CA-50), Nancy Soderberg (FL-06), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), Mel Hall (IN-02), Sean Casten (IL-06), Brendan Kelly (IL-12), Kathy Manning (NC-13), Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02), Tom Malinowski (NJ-07), Archie Parnell (SC-05), Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) and Lisa Brown (WA-05). 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "She's a Pharisistic Swamp Creature." - Rebecca Steve, the sister-in-law of Wisconsin veteran and businessman Kevin Nicholson, on his GOP primary opponent, state Sen. Leah Vukmir, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. 
 
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