Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by MarketPredict: Election Day in Arizona — Lamborn kicked off primary ballot — Blankenship fading in West Virginia Senate race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2018 08:06:39 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 04/24/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro, Daniel Strauss, Maggie Severns and Steven Shepard
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
ELECTION DAY IN ARIZONA - "House Republicans favored in Arizona special election," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Republicans expect to win Tuesday's special House election in Arizona. But they aren't expecting it to make them feel good. National Republicans have poured more than $1 million into a deep-red slice of the Phoenix suburbs to boost Debbie Lesko, a former state senator running to replace ex-Rep. Trent Franks in Congress. The district backed President Donald Trump by 21 points in 2016, but most GOP operatives said the best-case scenario they see for Lesko is a high single-digit margin of victory against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni on Tuesday. 
 
- "While the special election never attracted as much attention as some close contests over the last year, the race has still illustrated the stiff headwinds buffeting Republicans ahead of the midterms, with Democrats energized and independents leaning against the GOP in Arizona and around the country. The district's conservative lean and large share of seniors - the third-highest of any congressional district outside Florida - have insulated Lesko, but worrying signs are still there for Republicans watching the race. 'If Lesko wins by a slim margin in a district that overwhelmingly went for President Trump, it will mean statewide candidates are going to have a rough row to hoe,' said Dan
 Eberhart, a major Republican donor from Arizona, which has an open Senate race and a gubernatorial race this fall." Full story. 
 
BALLOT ACCESS - "Colorado Supreme Court boots Lamborn off primary ballot," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Colorado's state Supreme Court ruled Monday that GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn cannot appear on the primary ballot in his district due to a problem with his ballot petitions. The court ruled that a petition gatherer working for Lamborn's campaign did not live in the state at the time, rendering the signatures he gathered invalid and moving Lamborn below the threshold for ballot access. ... Ryan Call, an attorney for Lamborn's campaign, said that Lamborn intends to file a federal appeal." Full story.
 
POLLING DATA - "Coal baron Blankenship fading in W.Va. Senate primary," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "A new poll out Monday evening shows recently imprisoned coal baron and Senate hopeful Don Blankenship fading in the Republican primary, amid an avalanche of establishment attacks aimed at stopping him from winning the nomination. ... The poll found [Patrick] Morrisey leading with 24 percent, followed by [Evan] Jenkins with 20 percent, and Blankenship trailing with 12 percent. Thirty-nine percent were undecided." Full story.
 
PLAYING NICE - "Senators hold their fire against home-state colleagues," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "In one competitive Senate election after another this year, incumbents are getting a pass from their home-state colleagues from the opposite party. It's a rare vestige of bipartisan harmony in a chamber where that used to be the norm. Though Republican senators say they will technically endorse and campaign for the GOP nominees, few, if any, will be going around their states and trashing vulnerable Democrats; the same goes for a key Republican incumbent being targeted by Democrats." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 196
 
Upcoming election dates - Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: May 8 - Idaho, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Oregon primaries: May 15 - Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky primaries, plus Texas primary runoffs: May 22.
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Michigan: April 24 - Florida: May 4 - Massachusetts: May 8 - Washington: May 18 - Arizona: May 30.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.
 
POLITICO's Ben White is bringing Morning Money to the Milken Institute Global Conference to provide coverage of the day's events and evening happenings. The newsletter will run April 29 - May 2. Sign up to keep up with your daily conference coverage..
 
FIRST IN SCORE - End Citizens United endorses 10 more House candidates: The pro-campaign finance reform group End Citizens United is endorsing 10 new House candidates: Sean Casten (IL-06), Betsy Londrigan (IL-13), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), Mel Hall (IND-02), Aruna Miller (MD-06), Aftab Pureval (OH-01), Theresa Gasper (Ohio-10), Archie Parnell (SC-05), Elaine Luria (VA-02), and Richard Ojeda (WV-03). ECU will help connect the candidates with its network of small-dollar donors. ECU President Tiffany Muller said in a statement that "these candidates are committed to fighting for meaningful reform so that people, not special interests, are the priorities in Congress." 
 
PERSONAL STORY - "Arizona Rep. Martha McSally Alleges Sexual Abuse by High-School Coach," by The Wall Street Journal's Kristina Peterson: "Rep. Martha McSally said she was sexually abused by a coach when she was in high school, an experience that she said shaped some of the biggest decisions in her life. Ms. McSally, a Republican who is running for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, has spoken before of being sexually harassed during her 26 years in the Air Force, where she became the first female pilot to fly in combat. But she hasn't previously discussed publicly her high-school track coach's alleged sexual abuse." Full story.
 
HUH - "Murphy won't rule out bid for Florida governor, with Jolly as running mate," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Supporters of former U.S. Senate candidate and Congressman Patrick Murphy want him to run for governor so badly that they're polling his standing in the Democratic primary and testing the historic decision to pick a Republican running mate who also happens to be a former congressman and U.S. Senate candidate. Murphy confirmed for POLITICO that a supporter is underwriting a poll but wouldn't discuss details or the idea of running with former Rep. David Jolly, with whom he's touring the state to talk about how Washington is broken." Full story.
 
NEW THIS MORNING - UP ON THE AIR - Pannill Fletcher launches first TV ad in TX-07 runoff: Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher released her first TV ad of the Democratic runoff. "When Houston families are threatened, we fight back," Fletcher says, adding that she fought for "employees fighting discrimination at work." But "now Donald Trump is threatening every Houston family, and I approve this message because I'm ready to fight back," Fletcher says. The ad is airing on cable stations in the district. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Giunchigliani pops TV ad in Nevada governor's race: Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani released her first ad in the Democratic primary. The ad, "Teaching," highlights her work as a lawmaker. She also vows to "fix the school funding formula, reduce class sizes, and increase teachers' salaries." Giunchigliani's campaign is boosting the ad with a six-figure ad buy this week. The ad is airing in the Reno and Vegas media markets. 
 
- Newsom releases first TV ad in California governor's race: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom's gubernatorial campaign released its first tv ad, "First," highlighting his time as mayor of San Francisco where he fought the NRA and pushed legislation to expand health care and recognize marriage equality. The ad is airing statewide. 
 
- RGA affiliate ad highlights Ducey teacher pay increase proposal: "A PAC set up by the Republican Governors Association released a new ad praising Republican Gov. Doug Ducey for his announcement of a plan to boost teacher pay in the state." Watch the ad here. Full story. 
 
** A message from MarketPredict: Political campaigns can change on the fly so your data and media buys need to be nimble as well. Introducing MarketPredict, live predictive modeling that helps you deliver smart media campaigns and convert voters! Get in touch with us so you can get in touch with your voters. [email-masked] | 202-408-2713 | Market-Predict.com **

DONOR WATCH - "The Bros of the Ultimate Fighting Championship Are All In On Trump," by Buzzfeed's Tarini Parti: "Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta III, who sold UFC for $4 billion in 2016, have quickly become among the president's biggest, early re-election supporters. ... The Nevada-based Fertittas have been active in their political giving for years, but Federal Election Commission records show they've significantly increased their contributions since Trump became involved in politics, and even more so since he took office. The brothers, who used to give regularly to the former Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid and Senate Democrats' campaign arm, have also become more overtly partisan, giving
 big to Republicans and no longer contributing as much of a share of their contributions to Democrats." Full story.
 
- "Koch network success in Trump era draws Democratic pushback," by The Associated Press's Lisa Mascaro: "The sprawling network funded by the billionaire Koch brothers is having a very good run with President Donald Trump in the White House and Republican control of Congress. ... That success is starting to get attention. Democrats are increasingly questioning how far the network's influence extends into the White House, casting the groups' backing by industrialists Charles and David Koch as puppeteers behind Trump's agenda and hoping to rouse their own donors to fight back. The network in turn is ratcheting up its focus on areas where it aligns with Democrats - most notably immigration
 legislation - and reviving calls for bipartisanship." Full story.
 
WOMEN TO WATCH ON THE PLAYBOOK POWER LIST - Playbook published its most recent Power List on women on the forefront of politics and policy. Some interesting campaign-related honorees: Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner's campaign manager Betsy Ankney, embattled Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), DCCC independent expenditure director Jessica Mackler and Florida Gov. Rick Scott's Senate campaign manager Jackie Schutz Zeckman. The full list.
 
2020 WATCH - "Kamala Harris changes course, says she'll reject corporate PAC cash," by CNN's Gregory Krieg: "California Sen. Kamala Harris will join other leading Democrats in rejecting corporate PAC money, she announced in an interview on Monday. The decision marks a reversal from Harris, who refused at a town hall in Sacramento earlier this month to swear off corporate donations. Harris publicized her new position during a visit, taped Friday, with 'The Breakfast Club,' a New York radio show. When asked by co-host Charlamagne Tha God about her earlier response, Harris said she had reconsidered." Full story.
 
- "Bernie Sanders to announce plan to guarantee every American a job," by The Washington Post's Jeff Stein: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will announce a plan for the federal government to guarantee a job paying $15 an hour and health-care benefits to every American worker 'who wants or needs one,' embracing the kind of large-scale government works project that Democrats have shied away from in recent decades." Full story.
 
MCDANIEL RERUN - "U.S. Senate candidate Chris McDaniel shows weak start to fundraising," by The Clarion-Ledger's Anna Wolf: "U.S. Senate candidate and tea party darling state Sen. Chris McDaniel, R-Ellisville, raised less than $100,000 since announcing his candidacy in March. The donations technically came during his run for incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker's seat, though they'll be transferred to his new campaign for the seat vacated this month by former U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran. ... He received the maximum donation for a primary race, $2,700, from seven mostly Mississippi-based individuals. McDaniel also loaned his campaign $55,000, bringing his total funding to $154,290." Full story. 
 
FEC COMPLAINT FILES - "CREW sues American Action Network over alleged campaign law violation," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "The watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has sued the nonprofit American Action Network in the District Court for the District of Columbia today, after unusual maneuvering at the Federal Election Committee opened a door for CREW to take a campaign law complaint to the court system. CREW is alleging that American Action Network violated campaign law by registering as a nonprofit instead of a political committee even while spending a large ratio of its expenses on election-related ads during the 2010 election." Full story.
 
GETTING THE NOD - Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC backs five House candidates: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC announced that it's endorsing five House Democratic challengers: Ammar Campa Najjar (CA-50), Greg Edwards (PA-07), Jess King (PA-11), Leslie Cockburn (VA-05) and Lisa Brown (WA-05). 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - Hawley pops digital ad in Missouri: Attorney General Josh Hawley's Senate campaign released a new 30-second digital ad urging Sen. Claire McCaskill to support Mike Pompeo's confirmation for secretary of State. Watch the digital ad here. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Some people I've spoken with have said this is a David vs. Goliath race, but they're wrong. I'm not Goliath. Washington, D.C., is Goliath." - Former Gov. Mitt Romney on running in the Republican primary for Senate in Utah, The Associated Press reported. 
 
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