Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by MarketPredict: Lesko notches win, but a slim one, in Arizona special — Close polls in Tennessee, Nevada Senate races — Texas governor calls for special election in TX-27
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2018 08:03:07 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 04/25/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Daniel Strauss 
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - Lesko notches single-digit win in AZ-08, via Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Republican Debbie Lesko won the House special election in Arizona Tuesday night, holding off a closer-than-expected Democratic challenge in a district that President Donald Trump won by 21 points in 2016. Lesko had 53 percent of the vote when The Associated Press called the race an hour after the polls closed, with over 155,000 early votes tallied. Democrat Hiral Tipirneni had 47 percent of the vote. But Lesko's single-digit margin is the latest evidence that Republicans face a punishing midterm environment, even in Trump-friendly territory. Lesko's victory comes on the heels of losses
 for Republicans in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb beat Republican Rick Saccone in a district that backed Trump by nearly 20 points in 2016, and in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore last year."
 
- "'Republicans shouldn't be hitting the alarm, they should be slamming it,' said Mike Noble, a GOP pollster based in Arizona. He added: 'This district isn't supposed to be competitive, and so to see this margin, especially with the Republicans pouring in resources here -- again, it's a tough year.'" Full story. See the results here.
 
POLLING DATA - "Tennessee Mason-Dixon poll: Bredesen 46, Blackburn 43," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "Former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen holds a narrow, 3-point lead over GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the Tennessee Senate race, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll out today. The poll shows Bredesen, a Democrat, leading Blackburn, 46 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided. Bredesen dominates Blackburn among Democratic voters, 87 percent to 4 percent. But the former two-term governor wins 12 percent of Republicans, compared to 81 percent for Blackburn. Bredesen leads among independents, 49 percent to 35 percent." Full story. 
 
- "Poll: Heller 40, Rosen 39 in Nevada," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "Sen. Dean Heller and Rep. Jacky Rosen are running neck-and-neck in the Nevada Senate race, according to a new survey conducted by a Democratic polling firm for an independent media outlet. The poll, conducted by the Mellman Group for the Nevada Independent, shows Heller at 40 percent, and Rosen at 39 percent. More than two out of 10 voters, 21 percent, are undecided." Full story.
 
- "Jenkins 25, Morrisey 21, Blankenship 16 in West Virginia primary," by... guess who? POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "A new independent poll confirms former coal magnate Don Blankenship has slipped to third place in next month's GOP Senate primary in West Virginia. The Fox News poll, released late today, shows Rep. Evan Jenkins with a slight lead over state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, 25 percent to 21 percent. Blankenship, who spent a year in jail following a 2010 disaster that killed 29 miners at a Massey Energy-owned mine in West Virginia, is at 16 percent." Full story.
 
SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON FOREVER - Abbott schedules June 30 special election in TX-27: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Tuesday that the state will hold a special election on June 30 to replace former Rep. Blake Farenthold, who announced his resignation earlier this month. The candidate filing deadline is Friday, and early voting will run from June 13 to June 26, per the governor's proclamation. If no candidates reaches 50 percent, the race will go to a runoff in September, "at the latest," the statement said. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 195 (updated for 4/25)
 
Upcoming election dates - Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: May 8 - Idaho, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Oregon primaries: May 15 - Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky primaries, plus Texas primary runoffs: May 22.
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Michigan: April 24 - Florida: May 4 - Massachusetts: May 8 - Washington: May 18 - Arizona: May 30.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
POLITICO's Ben White is bringing Morning Money to the Milken Institute Global Conference to provide coverage of the day's events and evening happenings. The newsletter will run April 29 - May 2, 2018. Sign up to keep up with your daily conference coverage.
 
WINDY CITY BATTLE - "Battle-scarred Rahm stares down toughest election ever," by POLITICO Illinois's Natasha Korecki: "For the past 25 years, Rahm Emanuel has been involved in political trench warfare ranging from NAFTA to the 2006 Democratic House takeover to the Affordable Care Act. And yet it's Emanuel's bid for a third term as Chicago mayor that might be the toughest challenge he's ever faced. A slew of credentialed candidates has lined up to oust him from City Hall, and they're engaging in an almost daily assault on Emanuel's character and mayoralty. He's been cast as a bully who's raised taxes, closed schools in poor neighborhoods and driven minorities out of the city. This is all for
 an election that's still nearly a year away." Full story.
 
THE SWAMP - "Mulvaney, Watchdog Agency's Leader, Advises Bankers on Ways to Curtail It," by The New York Times' Glenn Thrush: "Mick Mulvaney, the interim director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, told banking industry executives on Tuesday that they should press lawmakers hard to pursue their agenda, and revealed that, as a congressman, he would meet only with lobbyists if they contributed to his campaign. 'We had a hierarchy in my office in Congress,' Mr. Mulvaney, a former Republican lawmaker from South Carolina, told 1,300 bankers and lending industry officials at an American Bankers Association conference in Washington. 'If you're a lobbyist who never gave us money, I didn't
 talk to you. If you're a lobbyist who gave us money, I might talk to you.'" Full story.
 
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NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "A Republican Running For Governor In Michigan Is Using Unfounded Conspiracy Theories Against A Muslim-American Rival," by Buzzfeed's Talal Ansari: "A Republican candidate for governor in Michigan used a typical and unfounded anti-Muslim conspiracy theory during a presentation about his Muslim-American Democratic rival, suggesting he is part of an unfounded Muslim plot to engage in "civilization jihad" that is subversively attempting to take over the country. The candidate, Patrick Colbeck, who is currently a state Senator of Michigan's 7th district, made the remarks about Dr. Abdul El-Sayed while delivering a slideshow at an event held by The United West in April
 2018." Full story.
 
HOUSE POLL - Internal memo shows McGrath leading in KY-06 primary: An internal memo released by Democrat Amy McGrath's campaign showed her leading the primary field with 42 percent support. Jim Gray follows her with 35 percent. Another 14 percent are undecided. Check out the polling memo here. 
 
WEB WARS - NRCC attacks 3 House Democrats on farm bill with digital ads: The NRCC is going up with digital ads to attack three House Democrats for voting against the farm bill, including Reps. Tom O'Halleran (AZ-01), Collin Peterson (MN-07) and Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18). The ad says the congressmen "promised to fight for farmers," but they "voted with Nancy Pelosi against the farm bill." Check out the AZ-01, MN-07 and NY-18 ads. 
 
STAFFING UP - Ward announces senior staff in Arizona: Republican Kelli Ward announced her senior staff on Tuesday, naming Shawn Dow as campaign manager and Ron Nehring as the senior communications adviser. Mark Campbell will serve as the research director. 
 
PERSONNEL CHANGES - AL Media adds new partner: AL Media named Andy Meyer, who joined the firm in 2010 and leads its digital work, as a partner, per a statement from the group. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We've been disappointed so far this year and it's going to cause us to closely evaluate the involvement we may or may not have in individual races." - Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillips told The Hill on evaluating their spending options ahead of November. 
 
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