Subject: EconVue Spotlight April 28, 2018 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2018 13:16:48 -0700 (PDT)

Image: 
To see the original, click here:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01f1-1804/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct28_0/1?sid=TV2%3AkIKHGFAPT
Target URL: http://www.econvue.com
 
EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Last week I attended the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington. 
Although the weather was cold, the mood was better than it has been for 
some time, buoyed by the unexpected US decision to contribute additional 
capital to the World Bank. The most amazing thing however was how many 
people were turned away from the Fintech panels. The organizers 
completely underestimated interest in blockchain and cryptocurrencies. 
It was fascinating to hear regulators, central bankers, and 
practitioners discuss cutting edge financial innovations, and what these 
might mean for emerging markets. EconVue expert Karim Pakravan

https://www.econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

reviews the two major reports issued at the meeting below.

At the Bretton Woods Committee meeting, World Bank President Jim Yong 
Kim described how he worked with private insurance companies to create 
catastrophe bonds to fund global disasters such as pandemics and famine. 
I first heard about this at the G7 meetings in Sendai in 2016 - the 
Japanese have been strong backers. Now this innovative approach has 
become reality and $450M has been raised. You can watch Kim's speech 
here

https://youtu.be/ATlsUYpdUdA

. The pandemic bonds are paying 8.7% and were twice oversubscribed. This 
is a terrific example of a public-private partnership which can provide 
readily available resources in times of need.

My overall impressions over the three days I spent in DC: although 
inflation is on the horizon, risks are moderate. No one really can 
forecast the effects of new technologies on finance, jobs, and markets 
efficiencies. The US is more of a rational global player than is being 
portrayed in the media. Concerns are rising about the US-China 
relationship, potential channels of contagion, and the collapse of 
private investment in China over the past two years. For more on this, 
I've included a link below to the Peterson Institute's China seminar, 
co-sponsored by Caixin. I especially recommend the second panel on 
reforms, and Nicholas Lardy's remarks.

Lastly, for those of you who are in the LA area, I will be speaking at a 
breakfast

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/city-national-bank-trade-policy-forum-registration-45007994122

sponsored by City National Bank on May 24th.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

The IMF Report: Short-Term Resilience, Rising Medium-Term Risks

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/imf-report-short-term-resilience-rising-medium-term-risks

Karim Pakravan

https://www.econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

The just concluded IMF Spring Meeting issued the semi-annual updates of 
its two major reports-the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global 
Financial Stability Report (GSFR). In these reports, the IMF remained 
upbeat about the short-term outlook for the global economy, but warned 
about rising downside risks, especially in the medium- to long-term.

Payments Potential

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/payments-potential

Collin Canright

https://www.econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

From realtime to person-to-person and crypto, digital payments continue 
to change the payments landscape in the United States. Even so, cash is 
back, to the detriment of one growing business, as covered in this 
issue's links.

How the 2018 Summit of the Americas can still make a difference

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/how-2018-summit-americas-can-still-make-difference

R. Evan Ellis

https://www.econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Although this article article on the Summit of the Americas in Peru was 
written before the missile strike in Syria, and doesn't capture the 
impact of the action on the summit agenda, I believe that the basic 
analysis of the conservative trend in the region is consistent with what 
happened at the summit, and the article's arguments about the agenda for 
the Americas may continue to be of use to you as a point of reference.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Global Financial Landscape

Animation: Global population by region from 1950 to 2100

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/animation-global-population-by-region-1950-2100/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare

Jeff Desjardins 4/25/2018 Visual Capitalist

Stunning animation that highlights imminent huge population growth in 
Africa as it catches up with Asia. What it doesn't show is the age of 
people in those two regions over that same period. Asia will be old, and 
Africa will be young.

Truculent view on Target-2:&nbsp;Greenspan points to 'destabilising' 
euro

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2018/april/truculent-view-on-target-2/

David Marsh 4/27/2018 OMIFF

Is Europe at risk? At the meeting of the World Gold Council, Alan 
Greenspan restates his views on the Euro, which he says is an 
unsustainable currency.

OPIC: Corporate welfare and foreign policy

https://www.mercatus.org/commentary/OPIC-corporate-welfare

Tad DeHaven 4/23/2018 George Mason Unversity

OPIC stays. The new head of OPIC, Ray Washburne was quite impressive- 
you can see his remarks here at the Bretton Woods meeting.

https://youtu.be/5Q9O0HBJOII

I asked him how China's One Belt One Road project compares in terms of 
investment: OPIC is only $40B compared to OBOR's $2T.

FinTech

IMF Quiz: How Much Do You Know About Fintech?

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/03/12/fintech-quiz-how-much-do-you-know/

This is fun. 10 questions and you will get a perfect score no matter 
what. But no more spoilers!

What has driven the expansion of the peer-to-peer lending?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2841316

Olena Havrylchyk 2/23/2018 SSRN

The rapid growth of peer-to-peer lending is another example of 
decentralization of financial services enabled by technology and spurred 
on by the effects of the Global Financial Crisis.

The case for central bank electronic money and the non-case for central 
bank cryptocurrencies

https://files.stlouisfed.org/research/publications/review/2018/04/16//the-case-for-central-bank-electronic-money-and-the-non-case-for-central-bank-cryptocurrencies.pdf

Aleksander Berentsen and Fabian Schar 4/16/2018 Federal Reserve Bank of 
St. Louis

Blockchain without an incentive-based payment system such as bitcoin is 
just a slow private distributed ledger database someone has to pay to 
maintain.

Why an investor is predicting Bitcoin could hit $700,000

http://

Jen Wieczner 4/25/2018 Fortune

Will bitcoin replace gold? There are seven ways to Sunday in terms of 
calculating its true value.

China

China and the world: Recalibration and realignment

https://piie.com/events/china-and-world-recalibration-and-realignment

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-china-insight/boiled-frog-syndrome-germanys-china-problem-idUSKBN1HM03J

4/20/2018 Webcast Peterson Institute/Caixin Media

In Washington, timely discussion between old & new friends, theorists, 
practitioners & policymakers. Perspectives on recent changes in China 
and future trends in the global economy. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-china-insight/boiled-frog-syndrome-germanys-china-problem-idUSKBN1HM03J

China's currency internationalization is failing; Oil futures won't 
rescue it

https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-currency-internationalization-failing-oil-futures-wont-rescue-it?utm_medium=social_share&utm_source=tw

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-china-insight/boiled-frog-syndrome-germanys-china-problem-idUSKBN1HM03J

Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca 4/18/2018 Council on Foreign 
Relations

In spite of the fact that China is the world's #2 economy, only 1.6% of 
the world's trade transactions are settled using the renminbi. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-china-insight/boiled-frog-syndrome-germanys-china-problem-idUSKBN1HM03J

'Boiled frog syndrome': Germany's China problem

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-china-insight/boiled-frog-syndrome-germanys-china-problem-idUSKBN1HM03J

Noah Barkin 4/15/2018 Reuters

This is a paradigm shift.

EU ambassadors band together against Silk Road

https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/eu-ambassadors-beijing-china-silk-road-912258

Dana Heide, Till Hoppe, Stephan Scheuer & Klaus Stratmann 4/17/2018 
Handelsblatt Global

EU report says China's Silk Road Project "runs counter to the EU agenda 
for liberalizing trade and pushes the balance of power in favor of 
subsidized Chinese companies." Tensions are rising not just between the 
US & China, but between the US & Europe.

Others

History and geography is not destiny: Poland's lesson for Africa'

http://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/article/history-and-geography-is-not-destiny-poland-s-lesson-for-africa/

3/2018 The Brenthurst Foundation

Fascinating paper-how Poland overcame both bad geography and a 
devastating history of rule by other powers. Lessons for Africa.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
https://www.econvue.com
Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/Econvue-1441609279386714/
  Twitter
https://twitter.com/lyrichues

Subscribe to Econvue
https://econvue.com/why-subscribe

My articles for Yale Books London
http://yalebooks.wordpress.com/?s=lyric+Hughes+Hale

"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
http://whatsnextbook.com/

©2018  EconVue, LLC. All rights reserved. This document may not be 
quoted, forwarded, disseminated, distributed, or published without the 
express written consent of EconVue, LLC. Any views or opinions expressed 
are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of 
EconVue, LLC.,  are economic in nature, and should not be relied upon 
for making investment decisions. 

This email and any attachments to it may be confidential and are 
intended solely for the use of the individual to whom it is 
addressed. If you are not the intended recipient of this email, you must 
neither take any action based upon its contents, nor copy or show it to 
anyone. Please contact the sender if you believe you have received this 
email in error.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2016 EconVue, LLC

  
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/rif/3037/s-01f1-1804/-/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/zout?sid=TV2%3AkIKHGFAPT
 if you do not wish to receive future email