Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats — GOP braces for more brutal Senate primaries — Here's how many women have won or lost so far
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 10 May 2018 08:08:28 -0600
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By Maggie Severns | 05/10/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Scott Bland
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
RISKY BUSINESS - "'When gerrymandering backfires': Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider: "Republicans redrew congressional districts across the country in 2010 in an attempt to consign Democrats to a semi-permanent House minority. But in 2018, the long-successful GOP insurance policy is at risk of backfiring in a big way - not only carving a path for a takeover, but possibly allowing for bigger Democratic gains.
 
"In many states, Republicans maximized gains in the House by spreading GOP voters across as many districts as possible. Typically, that left Democrats with around 40 to 45 percent of the vote in those districts, making them difficult under normal circumstances for the minority party to contest. But this election year is anything but normal. Many of the once-secure 55-45 Republican districts are very much in play, even in states that have not had competitive congressional races since 2012, the year new maps were installed." Full story. 
 
- "GOP braces for more brutal Senate primaries," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "This much we can say: Mitch McConnell is less toxic than a criminally convicted coal baron who was blamed for the death of 29 people in a mining disaster. But the Senate majority leader's headaches in 2018 are far from over. Less than a day after triumphing over Don Blankenship in West Virginia, the Republican leader is bracing for a flurry of anti-McConnell barrages in two critical primaries in Arizona and Mississippi that will test whether McConnell can effectively be used as a foil by conservative candidates. Candidates there are already attacking him and using his name generously to raise money, signaling
 that McConnell will face another round of insults from conservatives in his bid to keep the Senate in Republican hands." Full story.
 
GIVE IT A CLICK - POLITICO's new candidate tracker of women running for office: "Women gained seats in the House and Senate from the early 1990s through 2013 before the growth in their representation stalled. Now, women make up nearly 20 percent of Congress, but with record numbers of women running, they could be on track to claim an even larger share of seats," reports POLITICO's Sarah Frostenson. See the tracker here.
 
PAC WATCH - "Is Krystal Ball's PAC a fresh approach or a get-rich scheme?" by McClatchy's Alex Roarty: "When the People's House Project launched last May, founder Krystal Ball billed it as an organization that would defy old conventions and show Democrats a new model for winning campaigns. The former MSNBC host said her political action committee would support longshot candidates who embraced economic populism and lacked a political background - the kind of office-seekers who normally don't receive support from party leaders. But thus far, nobody has benefited more financially from the group than Ball herself. Of the $445,000 Ball raised for the group, she paid herself more than a third of
 that - $174,000 - in salary, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission. ... 
 
"Her most ardent supporters are the campaigns that have received her group's endorsement. In interviews, each described Ball and her group's executive director, John Moffett, as invaluable allies in their uphill fights to win primaries." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 180
 
Upcoming election dates - Idaho, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Oregon primaries: May 15 - Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky primaries, plus Texas primary runoffs: May 22 - Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: June 5 - Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia primaries: June 12.
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Washington: May 18 - Arizona: May 30 - Vermont: May 31 - Alaska, Kansas, Wisconsin and Wyoming: June 1 - Hawaii and Minnesota: June 5 - Connecticut: June 12.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
BIG BUNDLERS - "Big Donors Form New Alliance to Seize House From Republicans," by The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher: "Major Democratic donors in New York have discreetly formed a new political alliance to raise roughly $10 million that would be injected into as many as two dozen key House battlegrounds in an effort to wrest control of Congress from Republicans. Admission to be an official partner in what's being called the House Victory Project comes with a $108,000 price tag. ... The $108,000 pledge allows each donor to effectively give the maximum $5,400 contribution to 20 different House candidates. With nearly $9 million in commitments amassed so far, each Democratic recipient could
 see a windfall of as much as $432,000 - an amount that, for many House candidates, equals months of fund-raising in one fell swoop." Full story.
 
POLL POSITION - In New Jersey: Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew's campaign released a poll showing him leading Republican Hirsh Singh 52 percent to 34 percent in NJ-02, despite a generic Democrat trailing a generic Republican in the district. The TargetSmart poll reached 500 voters from April 19-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
 
- In California: Democrat Josh Harder's campaign released a Benenson Strategy Group poll showing him in a neck-and-neck race for a general election slot against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in CA-10. The survey has Denham at 42 percent, Harder at 13 percent, 2016 Democratic candidate Michael Eggman at 10 percent, and another two Democrats at 6 percent each. Eggman, who was involved in a tough battleground campaign in 2016, has higher unfavorable ratings than Harder, according to the poll. 
 
WAY DOWNBALLOT - "Controversial immigration jail policy could end as Mecklenburg sheriff concedes race," by the Charlotte Observer's Jane Wester: "Incumbent Mecklenburg County Sheriff Irwin Carmichael conceded the sheriff's race Tuesday night as former Charlotte-Mecklenburg police detective Garry McFadden cruised. ... The sheriff's primary race attracted national attention as a referendum on immigration, because the candidates were split on the jail's controversial 287(g) program. Carmichael has supported the program, which involves screening everyone arrested in the county to see whether they are here illegally." The race gained national attention, and the ACLU aired issue ads against
 Carmichael before the primary. Full story.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If you can't trust Gavin with his best friend's wife, why would you trust him with your state?" California gubernatorial candidate Travis Allen asked about fellow contender Gavin Newsom during a televised debate on Tuesday.
 
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