Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by MarketPredict: What to watch for on Super Tuesday — Iowa House primary pits Sanders vs. EMILY's List vs. self-funder — Senate Majority PAC ad hits Braun’s business record again
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Jun 2018 08:03:05 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 06/05/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
WHAT TO WATCH - "The Super Tuesday of 2018 has arrived. Here's what you need to watch," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard, Elena Schneider, Carla Marinucci, David Siders: "Voters in eight states go to the polls today for the biggest single primary day of 2018. But the main event on this super Tuesday is in California. That's not just because California is the nation's largest state, home to 53 congressional districts, including some of the most competitive in the country. Tuesday's California primaries are potentially make-or-break contests for both parties." Breakdown: 1. Democratic lockouts. 2. 2016 re-runs. 3. Republicans grasp for statewide relevance. 4. How big is California's "blue wave?"
 5. All you need is a little patience. 6. Can House Republicans break their losing streak? 7. Who will take on Jon Tester? 8. Will struggling liberals turn things around? 9. Martha Roby on red alert. Full story. 
 
DON'T FORGET ABOUT IOWA - "Iowa House primary pits Sanders vs. EMILY's List vs. self-funder," by Elena: "The primary race to take on Rep. David Young (R-Iowa) features all the tropes of 2018 Democratic candidates: a self-funding outsider, an EMILY's List endorsee with establishment backing, and a Bernie Sanders acolyte. But unlike a number of other Democratic primaries around the country, the race for the Des Moines-based seat has stayed 'relatively sleepy and quiet,' said Norm Sterzenbach, a Democratic consultant in the state. ... A poll conducted by The Des Moines Register in late May showed a tight race between [Eddie] Mauro and [Cindy] Axne, neither of whom are topping 35 percent. Mauro
 had 27 percent of the vote, followed by Axne with 26 percent. [Pete] D'Alessandro lagged further behind the other two with 11 percent support." Full story.  
 
- "Bernie vs. Hillary war fizzles in Iowa," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Democratic presidential wannabes, take note: Iowa politics looks nothing like it did just two years ago during the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders smackdown. Ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary for governor - the first and only statewide Democratic race before the 2020 caucuses - the Clinton-Sanders dynamic has been a non-factor. It's not that the dynamic isn't there: A pair of candidates in the crowded primary have aligned themselves with the 2016 presidential hopefuls who fought bitterly to a razor-thin Clinton win. But it's a wealthy, white 67-year old man with a long history in business and state politics
 who's expected to win. And even the gubernatorial contenders in the Clinton and Sanders molds say that the Democratic divide is so 2016." Full story.
 
'LAST MINUTE ENTRY' - "Ellison, DNC vice chairman, expected to run for Minnesota AG," by Isaac: "Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) is expected to make a last-minute entry into the race for Minnesota attorney general on Tuesday, according to two people familiar with his plans. 'I will make a decision tomorrow because it's the filing deadline,' Ellison said, not disputing that he is likely to enter the election. Ellison has been in Congress since 2007, and served as deputy chair of the DNC since last year, as a leader of the Bernie Sanders wing of the party. But he's been chafing for months at both roles: being in the minority in Congress and being subsumed to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, who beat him
 for the top job." Full story.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - "Senate Majority PAC ad hits Braun's business record again," by Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Senate Majority PAC is launching a new statewide TV ad in Indiana today attacking Republican Mike Braun over his business record. The ad is SMP's second of the cycle hitting Braun by highlighting details from an Associated Press report that showed his company, Meyer Distributing, took government subsidies, imported goods from overseas and faced lawsuits over working conditions." Full story. 
 
- Rauner pops Pritzker attack ad in Illinois governor's race: GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner released the first TV ad in the Illinois gubernatorial general election, attacking Democrat J.B. Pritzker for the "actual FBI wiretap of J.B. Pritzker and Rod Blagojevich." The ad shows Pritzker and Blagojevich laughing over saying, "God damn America." Watch the ad here. 
 
ICYMI - "'The race for governor has turned into a scam,'" by David in Los Angeles: "... [It] has devolved into a king-size flop. One day before the primary election here, the leading candidates sit largely indistinguishable on issues of substance, with little evidence of any intraparty, values-laden clash. Rather, election day will culminate a contest that has morphed into a bizarre exercise in gaming California's unusual, top-two primary system." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 154
 
Upcoming election dates - June 5: Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries - June 12: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia primaries. June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Hawaii and Minnesota: June 5 - Connecticut: June 12.
 
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2020 WATCH - "Deval Patrick plans 2020 decision by end of the year," by POLITICO's Lauren Dezenski: "Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is inching closer toward deciding on a 2020 presidential run. The former two-term Democrat plans to hit the campaign trail in a handful of races around the country this fall, which would 'help him sort it out by the end of the year,' said John Walsh, a close adviser who managed Patrick's 2006 insurgent gubernatorial campaign and later headed up his leadership PAC." Full story.
 
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ANOTHER CANDIDATE IN FLORIDA - "Billionaire Jeff Greene files to run for Florida governor," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: "Palm Beach billionaire Jeff Greene has joined the crowded Democratic race for Florida governor, adding a new level of uncertainty to a wide-open and big-spending race. Greene, who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in 2010, filed his paperwork Friday after months of of behind-the-scenes discussions with consultants and no-so-subtle hints that he was considering joining the fray against former Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, Orlando businessman Chris King and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum." Full story.
 
- And in Minnesota - AG Swanson jumps into governor's race: "Democratic Attorney General Lori Swanson announced her candidacy for governor of Minnesota [Monday]. The surprise announcement follows Swanson's failure to win a reelection endorsement from the Democratic Farmer-Labor Party at its state convention last weekend." Full story.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - WEB WARS - The Tennessee Democratic Party is launching Google search ads attacking Rep. Marsha Blackburn, the state's Republican Senate candidate, by directing people to a microsite, marsha.foresale, where they highlight campaign donations and say she "sold out" to the opioid industry. 
 
- Giunchigliani releases ad on personal story: Nevada Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Giunchigliani revealed she was a victim of sexual abuse as a child in a new ad. "An eight year old girl was sexually abused for over a year. Her sister was kidnapped, held in a trailer and raped for three days. I'm Chris G and that eight year old girl was me. Now Steve Sisolak says I've let child molesters go free? It's untrue and it's offensive." Watch the ad here. 
 
ISSUE ADVOCACY - Koch network unleashes multimillion dollar trade blitz," via Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "The powerful network of outside groups founded by the Koch brothers is rolling out a multimillion dollar campaign promoting free trade, in the wake of new tariffs announced last week by the Trump administration. ... The campaign will include paid media, as well as lobbying and activist work, the Koch network said [Monday]. Three Koch network groups will participate in the drive: Freedom Partners, AFP and The LIBRE Initiative." Full story.
 
POLLING DATA - "Grimm leads Donovan by 10 points in new NY1-Siena poll," by POLITICO's Laura Nahmias: "Former Rep. Michael Grimm is leading his Republican primary opponent, incumbent Dan Donovan, by 10 points in his hard-fought battle to win back his congressional seat, despite Donovan's recent endorsement by President Donald Trump. A new NY1/Siena poll shows Grimm winning against Donovan by 10 points, 47 to 37 percent in New York's 11th Congressional District." Full story.
 
- PA-01 tight among likely voters, Monmouth poll finds: "A new Monmouth University poll found Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick with a 7-point lead over Democrat Scott Wallace among a wide sample of registered voters in Pennsylvania's 1st District, but the race is considerably tighter under a pair of different likely voter models. Fitzpatrick has 49 percent of the vote to Wallace's 42 percent among 'all potential voters,' which includes those who have voted since 2010 or are newly registered, while another 9 percent said they were undecided." Full story.
 
GETTING THE NOD - Brady Campaign backs eight House challengers: Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence announced that it endorsed eight House candidates in competitive Democratic primaries, including Bryan Caforio (CA-25), Gil Cisneros (CA-39), Josh Harder (CA-10), Andy Kim (NJ-03), Dave Min (CA-45), Katie Porter (CA-45), Harley Rouda (CA-48) and Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11). 
 
STAFFING UP - For Our Future hires new state director: For Our Future and For Our Future Action Fund, a Democratic group, announced that it hired a new state director, Michelle White, who served as the executive director of the Nevada state Senate Democratic Caucus.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'll be thinking about a range of options for myself, from philanthropy to public service, but I'm a long way from knowing what the future holds." - Howard Schultz, eying a run at public office in 2020, steps down as CEO of Starbucks, POLITICO reported. 
 
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