Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by MarketPredict: California House races still uncalled, but Democrats positioned to avoid lockouts — Roby to runoff in AL-02 — Rosendale wins GOP nod to take on Tester
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 06 Jun 2018 08:02:26 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider and Scott Bland | 06/06/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Daniel Strauss
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
CALIFORNIA - As of (very) early Wednesday morning, Democrats were in position to avoid lockouts in key House races - but only just, in some cases, and there are still plenty of votes to count. (None of them have been called by the Associated Press yet.) See live results here.
 
- CA-10: Democrat Josh Harder is in position to take on GOP Rep. Jeff Denham, with about 1.5 points between Harder and another Republican challenging for the second-place spot.
 
- CA-25: Democrat Katie Hill is just ahead of Democrat Bryan Caforio in the race to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight.
 
- CA-39: Republican Young Kim has advanced to November and appears set to face Democrat Gil Cisneros, who has a cushion in second place.
 
- CA-45: Democrat Katie Porter leads Democrat Dave Min for the second general election slot against GOP Rep. Mimi Walters.
 
- CA-48: Democrats Harley Rouda and Hans Keirstead are neck and neck for the second slot behind GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, with Republican Scott Baugh about a point behind the two Democrats.
 
- CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin is currently in second, with two Democrats behind him, and Republican Diane Harkey has advanced to the general election.
 
- BEHIND THE SCENES - "Republican super PAC secretly promoted candidates in California," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Elena Schneider: "A House GOP leadership-backed super PAC secretly picked favorites in three high-profile California primaries to be decided Tuesday that could help to decide control of the chamber. Republican leadership typically stays out of contested primaries where incumbents are not seeking reelection. But in April, Congressional Leadership Fund, a group closely aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, funneled about $1.5 million to American Future Fund, an Iowa-based outside Republican organization, according to a CLF official." Full story. 
 
ROBY TO RUNOFF - "Republican primary voters in Alabama will have to decide which is worse: a vote against Donald Trump, or a vote for Nancy Pelosi," Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider and Daniel Strauss report. "That will be the key question in a July primary runoff involving GOP Rep. Martha Roby ... She will face former Rep. Bobby Bright, an ex-Democrat, in a head-to-head race for the Republican nomination in July. Roby spurned Trump in 2016, promising not to vote for him and calling for him to quit the presidential race after the Access Hollywood tape ... Roby's rejection of the president hurt, siphoning votes to a write-in candidate in the 2016 general election and drawing four Republican
 opponents into this year's primary. ... But Bright has his own baggage: a vote for Pelosi as speaker of the House from 2009, at the beginning of Bright's one and only term in Congress as a Democrat. Roby attacked Bright over the vote when she beat him in a general election eight years ago, and the charge can only be more potent in a Republican primary." Full story.
 
ROSENDALE TO FACE TESTER - Montana state Auditor Matt Rosendale took about 34 percent of the primary vote on his way to the GOP nomination to face Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in the fall. James Arkin has a preview of the race.
 
MENENDEZ GETS A MESSAGE - Democratic primary voters served Sen. Robert Menendez a showing of political weakness Tuesday night, giving him just 62 percent of the primary vote ahead of his bid for another term. More here from POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman.
 
GUV RACES - Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey navigated her Republican primary and avoided a runoff with 56 percent of the vote, and will face Democrat Walt Maddox in November. In California, Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom will face GOP businessman John Cox, as Antonio Villaraigosa failed to make it a top-two Democratic battle. Iowa Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell won the nomination to take on GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds, and congressional colleagues Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and Steve Pearce (R) will go head to head for the governorship in New Mexico. Another colleague, Rep. Kristi Noem, convincingly won the Republican nomination for governor of South Dakota.
 
** A message from MarketPredict: Need live political data that is easy to understand and implement to help you win? With the launch of MarketPredict's live predictive modeling, data will be delivered to you when you need it. Covering Gubernatorial, Senate or Ballot and staffed with political-data and media experts to support your campaigns. Just consider us your extended team! [email-masked] | 202-408-2713 | Market-Predict.com **

MORE HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS - Democratic women ran away with the battleground nominations in Iowa, with state Rep. Abby Finkenauer getting the nod in IA-01 against GOP Rep. Rod Blum and businesswoman Cindy Axne winning in GOP Rep. David Young's IA-03.
 
- In New Jersey, Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew will face Republican Seth Grossman for open NJ-02, while Democrat Mikie Sherrill will go up against Republican Jay Webber in open NJ-11. Former Obama State Department official Tom Malinowski won the Democratic primary in GOP Rep. Leonard Lance's NJ-07.
 
See all the June 5 election results here: ALABAMA | CALIFORNIA | IOWA | MISSISSIPPI | MONTANA | NEW JERSEY | NEW MEXICO | SOUTH DAKOTA
 
Days until the 2018 election: 153. 
 
Upcoming election dates - June 12: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia primaries. June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Connecticut: June 12. - New Hampshire: June 15. - Rhode Island: June 27.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @danielstrauss4, @maggieseverns and @jamesarkin. 
 
Join the Global Public Affairs Club, a new global community dedicated to C-level public affairs professionals launched by POLITICO's sister company, DII. Members receive the GPAC weekly newsletter, including original reporting and analysis on new transparency standards, recent lobbying regulation, risk management and industry best practices. In addition, members have access to the Global Public Affairs Forum on Sept. 28 in Paris. For additional information on GPAC, email Chlo&eacute; Mimault-Talagrand at [email-masked]. 
 
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BIG MONEY ALERT - "David Koch leaving business, political network," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Billionaire David Koch is retiring from his family's business and political network, citing health issues. Koch's departure was announced in a letter sent by his brother, Charles Koch, to Koch Industries employees on Tuesday. ... David Koch is leaving both Koch Industries and his role as chairman of the Americans for Prosperity Foundation, the charity arm of the sprawling Koch network." Full story.
 
- "PAC readies pro-Whitmer ads in Michigan," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "A Democratic 527 group supporting Democrat Gretchen Whitmer in the Michigan gubernatorial race is planning to start airing ads in the next few weeks, according to multiple Democrats with knowledge of the group's plans.
 
The outside group, Build A Better Michigan, was set up by Mark Burton, a longtime top aide to Whitmer. The aim of the TV ad blitz is to also increase Whitmer's name recognition ahead of the August primary, when Whitmer will face opponents including entrepreneur Shri Thanedar and physician Abdul El-Sayed.". Full story.  
 
- "Vice President Pence expected at mid-June Schuette fundraiser," by the Detroit News' Jonathan Oosting: "Pence is set to attend the June 15 event at the Townsend Hotel in Birmingham, Schuette strategist John Sellek confirmed Tuesday. The fundraiser will start at noon.The vice president first backed Schuette for Michigan governor in November, when his new political action committee announced it would donate the maximum $6,800 to the Midland Republican's campaign." Full story.
 
MINNESOTA SHAKEUP - "Ellison launches bid for Minnesota attorney general," by POLITICO's Isaac Dovere: "Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison jumped into the race for Minnesota attorney general today, the final day candidates were allowed to file. Ellison won't leave Congress immediately, but he will not run for reelection. He will also remain deputy chairman of the DNC during his campaign." Full story.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - DGA knocks Pearce: The Democratic Governors Association is releasing a new 30-second ad dinging Rep. Steve Pearce in the New Mexico governor's race. The DGA is promoting the ad online digitally. Watch the ad here. 
 
POLLING DATA - "Pro-Vukmir PAC poll shows her leading Wisconsin GOP primary," via Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "A new internal poll from a super PAC backing state Sen. Leah Vukmir shows her leading Marine veteran and businessman Kevin Nicholson in the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary. The Tarrance Group survey on behalf of Wisconsin Next PAC, an outside group backing Vukmir, had Vukmir at 36 percent support among primary voters, compared to 29 percent for Nicholson, with 35 percent undecided." Full story. 
 
GETTING THE NOD - AFP backs Freitas in Virginia GOP Senate primary: "Americans for Prosperity, the main arm of the Koch brothers' outside group network, is backing state Del. Nick Freitas in next week's Virginia Senate GOP primary. Freitas, a veteran and second-term delegate, is running in the primary against two conservative firebrands: Corey Stewart, a former member of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary last year, and minister E.W. Jackson, who was the party's lieutenant governor nominee in 2013." Full story. 
 
- Blue Dog PAC endorse 5 House challengers: The Democratic Blue Dog Coalition added five House challengers to its roster of endorsed Democratic candidates, including Mel Hall (IN-02), Chris Hunter (FL-12), Kathy Manning (NC-13), Matt Reel (TN-07) and Clarke Tucker (AR-02). 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My name was left off the polling registry today on Los Angeles." - A tweet from actor Henry Winkler, who was one of over 118,000 voters who were accidentally left off the voting rolls in Los Angeles on Tuesday, sparking concern during California's primaries.
 
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