Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: 5 things to watch — Nevada Democrats grapple with winning governorship — Viral politics in Virginia
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Jun 2018 08:04:33 -0600
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By Daniel Strauss | 06/12/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro, Scott Bland and Elena Schneider
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
WHAT TO WATCH - "Trump's clout in the GOP is driving Tuesday's primaries. Here's what to watch" by POLITICO's Steven Shepard and Elena Schneider: "The full scope of President Donald Trump's influence on the Republican Party will be on display in Tuesday's primaries, as one of his original 2016 supporters and one of his biggest Republican detractors in Congress fight for their political lives. Rep. Mark Sanford's (R-S.C.) frequent criticism of Trump's policies and rhetoric has landed him in an unexpectedly competitive House primary against a state representative touting herself as a staunch Trump partisan. But at the top of the ticket in South Carolina, Trump's support is one of the biggest
 things going for South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who was the first statewide elected official to back Trump in 2016 but faces questions over his ties to corruption in state government. ...
 
"Also on the ballot: A crowded Democratic primary for a heavily contested House seat in Northern Virginia, packed primaries for two competitive congressional districts in Nevada and a race for governor of Nevada that has drawn national attention and big money." Full story.
 
WHAT IT TAKES - "Virginia primary tests impact of viral politics" by Elena: "Dan Helmer spoofed a scene out of 'Top Gun,' bought an assault rifle without a background check while undercover and compared President Donald Trump to Osama bin Laden. Helmer, an Iraq War veteran turned congressional candidate in Northern Virginia, has become the most determined practitioner of a new political strategy: going viral. It has worked wonders for a handful of House candidates around the country, like Democratic pilot Amy McGrath in Kentucky, allowing them to break through cluttered primaries and Trump-dominated political news - at less cost than saturation TV advertising, which is unrealistic for many
 primary candidates. 
 
"But virality can come at a cost, too. Some of Helmer's opponents and strategists observing the race say his strategy could cost the party a prime opportunity to boot Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock from Congress, in a suburban district that appears to be shifting hard against Trump and the GOP. 'Flashy TV ads and the outrageous comments' are 'just noise,' said Lindsey Davis Stover, another Democratic primary contender. They're not 'what people really want and need right now.'" Full story.
 
PATH TO VICTORY - "Nevada Democrats grapple with how to win the governorship" by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "It has been 20 years since a Democrat was governor of Nevada. Just how to make that happen again has been the animating question of Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani's primary. Sisolak, a businessman and former member of the Nevada Board of Regents, has shaped his candidacy around Democratic accomplishments but cast himself as a moderate who can cut deals across the political spectrum. He has the support of former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and has poured over $4 million of his own money into advertising to keep himself atop the polls. Giunchigliani, by contrast, has
 focused her campaign on highlighting liberal bona fides and drawing support from EMILY's List and prominent unions including the Nevada State Education Association." Full story. 
 
NEW THIS MORNING - O'Connor pops first TV ad in OH-12 special: Democrat Danny O'Connor is calling for "new leadership on the Democratic side of things, too," in his first TV ad, citing a March POLITICO story when he announced that he would not support Nancy Pelosi. O'Connor's ad mirrors Rep. Conor Lamb's strategy, who won a deep-red Pennsylvania district and rejected Pelosi's leadership in a direct-to-camera ad. "Paul Ryan isn't doing anything for working families, but we need new leadership on the Democratic side of things too," O'Connor says in the TV ad, a 30-second positive spot that also features his personal story. Check out the ad here. 
 
MORE FROM OHIO - "Pence heading to Ohio for latest special election scare" by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Elena: "Vice President Mike Pence is heading to Ohio on Friday to throw his support behind a Republican candidate in a critical upcoming special election contest. Pence is slated to host a fundraiser for state Sen. Troy Balderson, who's competing in an Aug. 7 special election in a district President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2016, according to a person familiar with the vice president's plans. The seat was recently vacated by former GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi. ... National Republicans are starting to engage in the contest in Ohio, fearful of another special election loss in a red
 seat. Balderson's bid against Democrat Danny O'Connor presents another special election challenge for Republicans, still grappling with recent special election losses in Pennsylvania and Alabama, races deep in the heart of Trump country." Full story. 
 
- Monmouth OH-12 poll shows Balderson up 7-10 points in special election, via Elena: "A new Monmouth University poll has found Republican Troy Balderson with leads ranging from 7 to 10 percentage points, depending on the turnout model, in Ohio's upcoming special House election. Balderson leads Democrat Danny O'Connor 43 percent to 33 percent among "all potential voters," which includes those who have voted since 2010 or are newly registered. Another 21 percent are still undecided. Under a "historic midterm" turnout model, Balderson still holds a 9-point lead over O'Connor, 48 percent to 39 percent. Modeled for a turnout surge in Democratic areas in Franklin County, Balderson's edge shrinks
 slightly, to a 7-point lead." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 147 
 
Upcoming election dates - June 12: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia primaries. June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Connecticut: June 12, New Hampshire: June 15. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @danielstrauss4, @maggieseverns and @jamesarkin. 
 
How can Washington help the financial well-being of future American retirees? POLITICO convened leading thinkers and policymakers to identify some solutions. Read the full report. Presented by Prudential
 
RIPPLE EFFECT - "Republicans fear down-ballot drag from Stewart in Virginia" by Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "The final stretch of Virginia's GOP Senate primary has turned into a high-volume back-and-forth about racism - leaving state Republicans concerned about down-ballot drag in 2018 and the future of their party if front-runner Corey Stewart manages to win. 'Honestly I'm tired of the Republican Party getting painted of this caricature like we're racists when we're not,' state Del. Nick Freitas said in an interview slamming Stewart, who has taken controversial immigration positions and once praised Paul Nehlen, a self-described 'pro-White' candidate from Wisconsin. 'I don't like it when a
 candidate does things that makes it easier for [Sen.] Tim Kaine and the Democrats to caricature us.'" Full story. 
 
AD WARS - "CLF adds to fall TV reservation," by Elena: "The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC closely aligned with GOP House leadership, announced its second round of fall TV ad reservations [Monday], totaling an additional $15 million and signaling a wide battlefield in 2018. CLF added three districts to its list of broadcast TV ads in the fall: NJ-07 (Rep. Leonard Lance), NY-19 (Rep. John Faso) and CA-39, an open GOP-held district in which Republican Young Kim finished first in her primary last week. The group also increased its buys in several districts to help members, including Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Mike Bost (IL-12), Andy Barr (KY-06), Bruce Poliquin (ME-02), Erik
 Paulsen (MN-03), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01). CLF also increased its buy slated to back Republican candidate Dino Rossi (WA-08)." Full story. 
 
- Maryland Gov. Hogan releases ad highlighting bipartisan approach: The 30-second ad, "The Aisle," is part of the Hogan campaign's $1.3 million primary buy. It is airing statewide. Watch the ad here. 
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp releases ad highlighting Trump voting record: In the 30-second ad, Heitkamp said she "voted over half the time with President Trump and that made a lot of people in Washington mad. But when I agree with him, I vote with him. And if his policies hurt North Dakota, he knows I'll speak up." It's a six-figure buy on broadcast and digital. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown releases ad on trade: In the 30-second ad, Brown highlights his opposition to NAFTA, TPP and other trade deals. "Night and day they work making the best steel in the world, and Ohio workers should have a senator who works hard for them," Brown says in the ad. Watch the ad here. 
 
- Rosendale releases first general election TV ad: Republican Matt Rosendale, who's challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), launched his first general election TV ad on immigration, promising to build Trump's wall along the border. "Liberals from California to Washington are fighting President Trump on illegal immigration," Rosendale says in the ad. "Jon Tester had a chance to stop sanctuary cities but he voted with them." Watch the ad here. 
 
- Balter attacks Perez Williams in TV ad in NY-24: Democrat Dana Balter is going after her primary opponent, Juanita Perez Williams, for her "history of standing against a woman's right to choose" and her "pro-life advocacy," the TV ad's narrator says. Balter and Perez Williams are competing to take on GOP Rep. John Katko. Watch the ad here. 
 
WEB WARS - DCCC releases digital ads in 20 GOP-held districts: The DCCC announced on Monday that it will attack Republican House members with a round of digital ads, focusing on health care. The digital ad attacks Republicans for finding "a new way to GUT protections for people with pre-existing conditions." The full list of targeted districts: AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, IA-01, IA-03, IL-06, IL-13, IN-02, KY-06, NC-13, NJ-03, NJ-07, OH-01, OH-10, PA-01, PA-17, TX-07, TX-23 and TX-32. 
 
BAD HEADLINE - "'Diversity is a bunch of crap and un-American,' South Jersey congressional candidate Seth Grossman says," via The Philadelphia Inquirer: "Seth Grossman's surprise victory in the Republican primary in New Jersey's Second Congressional District has brought immediate national scrutiny of the Trump purist from Democrats who see a November victory by Democrat Jeff Van Drew as essential to their plans to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives. ... 'The whole idea of diversity is a bunch of crap and un-American," Grossman said at a GOP campaign forum held April 21 in Pittsgrove, Salem County." Full story. 
 
GETTING THE NOD - NRCC adds 9 Republicans to Young Guns 'contenders' phase: The NRCC announced that it added 9 Republicans to its "contenders phase" of its Young Guns program. The full list: Justin Fareed (CA-24), Sean Flynn (CA-31), Mark Harris (NC-09), Jay Webber (NJ-11), Yvette Herrell (NM-02), Cresent Hardy (NV-04), James O'Donnell (NY-18), Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16) and Marty Nothstein (PA-07). 
 
- Brady Campaign endorses 5 Democrats: The Brady Campaign, a gun control group, announced that it's endorsing a handful of Democratic candidates, including Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine and two Senate challengers, Rep. Beto O'Rourke in Texas and Rep. Jacky Rosen in Nevada. Two Democrats running in House races also got an endorsement: Rep. Stephanie Murphy in Florida's 7th District and Susie Lee in Nevada's 3rd District. 
 
- ECU adds 6 House challengers: End Citizens United announced endorsements of six Democratic House challengers: Mike Levin (CA-49), Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50), Lucy McBath, (GA-06), Cindy Axne (IA-03), Deb Haaland (NM-01) and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (TX-07).
 
PERSONNEL NEWS - West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey, the GOP nominee to take on Sen. Joe Manchin, has hired Brielle Appelbaum as his finance director. Appelbaum previously worked on the finance team at the Republican Attorneys General Association and was Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-S.C.) campaign manager.
 
- Renacci hires deputy campaign manager and senior communications adviser: Rep. Jim Renacci's campaign for Senate has hired Sarah Clamp as deputy campaign manager and Leslie Shedd as senior communications advisor. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Have you ever watched the video? It's obscene." - Rep. Kevin Cramer complaining, in an interview with The Washington Post, about Sen. Heidi Heitkamp positioning herself near President Donald Trump during a bank bill signing. 
 
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