Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: McConnell allies jump into Arizona — Labor braces for Janus — Shrinking Senate map boosts Democrats
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Jun 2018 08:01:21 -0600
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By Daniel Strauss | 06/15/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
ALL IN ARIZONA - "McConnell allies jump into critical Senate primary" by Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dove into the middle of a major Senate race Thursday, airing ads to help remake Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) as a border hawk ahead of her August primary with two prominent immigration hard liners. The ads, from the McConnell-aligned nonprofit One Nation, don't explicitly reference the Senate race. But they quote McSally saying, 'We've got to build the wall,' just as the two-term Republican has been tacking to the right on immigration. 
 
"She recently pulled her support from legislation that would have offered a pathway to citizenship for young immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally, instead backing a more conservative immigration bill, and McSally's office also recently took down a video from last year that featured her defending DACA, the Obama-era program that protected young undocumented immigrants from deportation. ... Steven Law, the president of One Nation and its affiliated super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, said in an interview earlier this week he thought McSally is well positioned to win the primary. He didn't discuss his group's plans to invest in the race, saying that was something 'everyone is still
 evaluating.'" Full story.
 
GETTING READY - "Labor 'tightening their belts' in preparation for Janus decision" by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Public sector unions are readying for a slump in membership and shrinking political budgets as they await a near-certain decision against them in the Janus v. AFSCME case before the Supreme Court. Unions have been bracing for months, and in some cases years, for the decision, which could come as soon as Monday. The Supreme Court deadlocked 4-4 in 2016 when it considered a similar case, regarding the mandatory collection of fees from non-union members, and public sector unions have tried to storm-proof in the years since, anticipating another challenge. AFSCME has held close
 to a million one-on-one conversations between union representatives and members about the value of union membership; the American Federation of Teachers set aside money in a rainy-day fund in case it sees a drop in revenue." Full story.
 
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES - "Shrinking map boosts Democrats in battle for the Senate" by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and James: "The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks - a net-plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November. Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Donald Trump carried in 2016 - Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. 
 
"Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are. ... Opportunities to snag GOP-held seats are so scarce that Democrats could easily see multiple incumbents lose if the Trump backlash turns out to be weak. But for now Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agrees the Senate is in play and has not been bullish on knocking off senators like Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), who have both opened up double-digit leads, according to
 polls released this week." Full story.
 
ANOTHER DEFECTION FOR PELOSI - "Higgins says he will no longer back 'misguided' Pelosi," by The Buffalo News' Jerry Zremski: "Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo said Wednesday that he will not back House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California for another term as the top Democrat in the House. ... Higgins cited the lack of a clear Democratic agenda as an alternative to President [Donald] Trump, as well as Pelosi's lack of interest in his bills to expand Medicare and invest in infrastructure, as the key sources of his frustration. 'She's listening, but this is my conclusion: She's aloof, frenetic and misguided,' Higgins said." Full story.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 144. 
 
Upcoming election dates - June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - New Hampshire: June 15. - Rhode Island: June 27. - Delaware: July 10.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @danielstrauss4, @maggieseverns and @jamesarkin. 
 
REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE - "Alabama House Republicans hosted Roby fundraiser," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Members of Alabama's Republican congressional delegation have rallied around Rep. Martha Roby in the congresswoman's primary runoff fight against former Rep. Bobby Bright. On Wednesday, Alabama Republicans held a fundraiser for Roby on Capitol Hill, according to multiple Republicans who attended the event. Reps. Robert Aderholt, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer and Mike Rogers were listed as headliners for the event, according to the invitation, which was obtained by POLITICO." Full story. 
 
- "Johnson supporters form 527 for Minnesota governor's race," by Daniel: "Supporters of Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, the Minnesota Republican Party-endorsed candidate for governor, have formed a new outside group to support his campaign ahead of a primary against former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The group, Minnesotans for Bold Reform, was established on Wednesday, according to IRS filings. Phil Lindau, the group's chair, formed the group along with Republican operative Chris Tiedeman, attorney David Asp and treasurer John Swanson. Lindau said he, Tiedeman and Asp set up a similar organization four years ago, when Johnson last ran for governor." Full story. 
 
THE NOMINEES - "GOP Senate nominees Kevin Cramer, Corey Stewart sought support of extreme anti-gay group," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski: "Two Republican Senate nominees sought and received the support of an anti-LGBT group that links homosexuality to pedophilia and defends conversion therapy. North Dakota's Kevin Cramer and Virginia's Corey Stewart, who both won the Republican nomination in their respective states on Tuesday, filled out a 'Senate Candidate Survey' for the group Public Advocate of the United States." Full story.
 
FROM THE COURTS - "Supreme Court strikes down law banning political clothing at polls," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The Supreme Court on Thursday struck down a Minnesota law that banned voters from going to the polls while wearing T-shirts, buttons and similar items containing politically charged messages. In a 7-2 decision, the justices held that limits on polling place attire are generally constitutional, but Minnesota's statute ran afoul of the First Amendment because it offered too little clarity about what slogans and what kinds of clothing qualify as too political to be worn as people vote." Full story.
 
DIGITAL WARS - The NRSC is launching a new digital ad Friday attacking Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema on immigration. "It has to stop. Deadly drugs pouring across the Arizona border. Opioid abuse skyrocketing. But Kyrsten Sinema isn't getting serious about it," a narrator says in the 40-second digital spot. The ad also knocks Sinema for leaving early from a field hearing in Arizona on combating the opioid crisis last month. Watch it here. 
 
MISSOURI MATTERS - Missouri Rising hits McCaskill with new ad: The Republican-aligned Missouri Rising group is releasing a new ad today attacking Sen. Claire McCaskill by pegging her as an out-of-touch Democrat prone to extravagant spending. Watch the ad here. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I think that's ridiculous. I think, you know what? If it's a cult, it's because they like what my father's doing." - Donald Trump Jr., responding on "Fox & Friends" to Sen. Bob Corker's charge that the GOP is becoming "a cult-like situation" in terms of loyalty to President Donald Trump.
 
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