Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Trump family separation policy roils swing-district Republicans — Supreme Court punts on partisan gerrymandering — Latest in CA-48 has Rouda in second by 40 votes
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2018 08:10:40 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 06/19/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Daniel Strauss and Elena Schneider
 
NATIONAL OUTRAGE OVER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY on separating children from parents at the border has reached a boiling point, drawing rebukes from across the political spectrum - including from the Republicans charged with keeping the House, both at the NRCC and in numerous battleground districts.
 
Heartbreaking images of children held in what are functionally cages have been released by the government, and ProPublica published gut-wrenching audio of a young girl pleading to be reunited with her family while other children cry in the background.
 
The pushback from Democrats came swiftly. Every single Democrat in the Senate - including red-state incumbents in reelection battles like Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) - signed onto a bill that would prevent minors from being taken away from their parents. House Democrats also roundly criticized the move.
 
But resistance also came from the Republican Party. NRCC chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) placed the blame squarely on the Trump administration. In a statement, Stivers said he will "ask the Administration to stop needlessly separating children from their parents" and that if "the policy is not changed, I will support other means to stop unnecessary separation of children from their parents." Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-08) called the policy "heartless and inhumane" and said "this extreme measure must end," while border-district Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23) told CNN that it is "something that as Americans we shouldn't be doing" and said that "this is clearly something that the administration can
 change." Rep. Kevin Yoder's (KS-03) statement to the Kansas City Star spoke to the "lasting, and sometimes even irreversible toll on the child's well being" from separation from their parents, and he urged the administration to change its policy.
 
The White House's policy is also widely unpopular among Americans. A poll of adults from CNN/SSRS found that just 28 percent of Americans approve of the Trump administration's decision (58 percent of Republicans support it, while just 27 percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats do). The Daily Beast/Ipsos poll of adults found similar numbers - 27 percent said they agree with the statement that "it is appropriate to separate undocumented immigrant parents from their children when they cross the border in order to discourage others from crossing the border illegally," with a plurality of Republicans agreeing at 46 percent but just 29 percent of Independents and 14 percent of
 Democrats saying the same.
 
But the White House is seemingly standing behind the policy, which could further open a rift between the president and those Republicans who have criticized family separation. Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen repeatedly lied from the podium at Monday's White House press briefing, incorrectly blaming the separation on a loophole within the country's immigration system and not instead on a deliberate policy choice from the Trump administration. The president has taken to Twitter to try to blame Democrats - and not his own administration's policies - for the move.
 
- Also on the immigration front: POLITICO's Nancy Cook reported that the Trump administration, spearheaded by Stephen Miller, wants additional immigration crackdowns ahead of the midterms: "The goal for Miller and his team is to arm Trump with enough data and statistics by early September to show voters that he fulfilled his immigration promises - even without a physical border wall or any other congressional measure, said one Republican close to the White House." 
 
PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING REMAINS UNRESOLVED - The Supreme Court largely punted on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Steven Shepard report: "Ruling in a pair of cases from Wisconsin and Maryland - one brought by Republicans and one brought by Democrats - the justices gave little clarity to when so-called partisan gerrymandering may go further than the law allows. In the Maryland case, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld a district court judge's decision not to grant a preliminary injunction blocking the state's 2011 congressional map. The justices said the legal uncertainty around the issue justified the judge declining to grant that unusual
 order. ...
 
"In the Wisconsin dispute, the justices ruled unanimously that the Democratic voters challenging a state legislative map drawn in 2011 failed to prove they were injured by the drawing of the new boundaries. However, seven justices agreed to give the challengers another shot at making their case in the lower courts."
 
AN UPDATE ON CA-48 - Democrat Harley Rouda has pulled into second place as move provisional votes are counted in this tight primary. He's now 40 votes ahead of fellow Democrat Hans Keirstead, according to a count from the Orange County registrar of voters that was posted Monday at 8 p.m.
 
- And in another California battleground, Democrats tell McClatchy's Alex Roarty they plan on taking down incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham in the state's 10th District by focusing on his votes on health care: "GOP votes for Obamacare repeal make Democrats think they have a message that will stick in 2018 in California's 10th district and 11 others like it across the country, seats where the party faces uncommonly strong incumbents. 'We're going to make sure as many people as possible there know that Denham owns that health care bill,' said Charlie Kelly, executive director of the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC. 'He voted to jack up costs and take away coverage. Good luck explaining that.'"
 
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to another edition of Morning Score. Here's one fun story from The Mercury News' Julia Prodis Sulek on the spot that the proposed "three Californias" would converge: an area that includes an old saloon and "clothing optional" hot spring. You can reach me at [email-masked] and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Today I had help from Daniel Strauss ([email-masked]/ @DanielStrauss4) and Elena Schneider ([email-masked]/ @ec_schneider).
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @MaggieSeverns and @JamesArkin. 
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman and Playbook Florida author Marc Caputo for a special Playbook Elections event in the battleground state of Florida to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. Part of the POLITICO-AARP Deciders series, this event will feature exclusive interviews with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies and campaign efforts to address the issues that matter most to voters. The event will take place Friday, June 29 at InterContinental Miami. Doors will open at 8 a.m. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 140. 
 
Upcoming election dates - June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Rhode Island: June 27. - Delaware: July 10.
 
WHERE ARE THEY NOW? - Former Virginia gubernatorial candidate and RNC chair Ed Gillespie has signed on with a top Republican digital consulting firm, Campaign Pro editor Scott Bland reports: "Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie has joined the board of directors of the GOP consulting firm IMGE. The move puts Gillespie among the leadership of the digital agency - a first for an ex-RNC chairman, the firm said in an announcement. ... Gillespie said in an interview that his experience running for office in Virginia, first for Senate in 2014 and then for governor in 2017, sharpened his belief in the growing importance of digital communications."
 
FLOODING THE AIRWAVES - Television ads are up 50 percent this cycle when compared to 2014, the last midterm election. Bloomberg's John McCormick: "Through June 11, more than 128,000 House campaign spots had run on broadcast TV, according to data from Kantar Media's CMAG, which tracks political advertising. That's up 54 percent from the same period in 2014 and represents estimated spending of just shy of $40 million. The San Diego market, which includes a California district where 12 candidates were vying for an open Republican-held seat that's expected to be competitive in November, had the biggest barrage of ads in the nation so far." 
 
 - FIRST IN SCORE: Democrat Andy Levin is up with his first television ad in MI-09, where he pledges to fight for Medicare for All and cut prescription drug prices. The buy is $80,000 over two weeks and will also run online.
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **

NEW GENERIC BALLOT POLL - 48 percent of registered voters said they would vote for a generic Democrat, versus 41 percent who say they would vote for a Republican in a new Monmouth University poll. The telephone poll was in the field June 12-13 and sampled 806 adults. The generic ballot remains functionally unchanged from Monmouth's poll in late April.
 
- A rare North Dakota Senate poll from Valley News Live/Mason-Dixon Polling has Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) leading incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) 48 percent to 44 percent. 625 likely voters were surveyed by telephone from June 13-15.
 
RYAN ENDORSES HIS REPLACEMENT - Speaker Paul Ryan waded into the primary battle to be his replacement in Wisconsin's 1st District by endorsing Bryan Steil, an attorney and former aide to Ryan. More from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Mary Spicuzza: "Steil is a member of a powerful Janesville political family with close ties to Ryan. He touts himself as a 'problem solver' and his experience as an attorney for manufacturing companies to represent the southeastern Wisconsin district in Congress." Steil, who is viewed as the favorite in the primary, is facing off against white nationalist Paul Nehlen among other candidates in the primary.
 
ANOTHER HEADACHE FOR CUOMO - New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo drew another challenge from his left yesterday, after former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner announced she would create her own party (the "Serve America Movement" party) to challenge him in November. Cuomo is already (fairly successfully) holding off a primary challenge from actor and activist Cynthia Nixon, who has already secured the Working Families Party nod in addition to mounting her bid for the Democratic nomination. More from POLITICO New York's Jimmy Vielkind: "Sherman Jewett, a former top official with the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee, will manage Miner's run. According to The New York Times, she has discussed
 financial support with Joe Rose, a former aide to Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, as well as the larger Serve America Movement, which was formed by people upset with the 2016 elections."
 
DON'T CALL IT AN UPSET, BUT... - MoveOn announced it was endorsing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in her primary challenge against House Democratic Caucus chair Joe Crowley in New York's 14th District.
 
FUNDRAISING CIRCUIT - Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolfe held a fundraiser earlier this month at a law firm his administration has filed a suit against in May. PennLive's John Micek: "Back in May, amid much fanfare, the Wolf administration announced it was filing suit against a group of legal, professional and financial firms for their role in a controversial upgrade to the city's trash incinerator that nearly plunged Pennsylvania's capital city into bankruptcy. Among the defendants was the white shoe law firm Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney P.C. ... Still, about a month later, Wolf's re-election campaign held a $1,000-a-head fundraiser at Buchanan, Ingersoll's offices on Second Street in Harrisburg.
 PennLive obtained a copy of the invitation."
 
CAMPAIGN FINANCE DEPT. - More than half of the money Women Vote! took in last month came from selling over $5.4 million in shares of Baidu, a Chinese tech company. EMILY's List's super PAC arm got the shares from California physician Karla Jurvetson, per the group's FEC report.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We saved the Great Danes, we saved the bears, now we've honored the chickens. What's next?", New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu after naming the New Hampshire Red the official state poultry.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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