Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Labor reveals midterm turnout targets — Two more candidates added to DCCC’s ‘Red to Blue’ program — Trump goes all in for McMaster
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2018 08:05:26 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 06/22/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Maggie Severns and Elena Schneider
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
FIRST IN SCORE - LABOR REVEALS MIDTERM TURNOUT TARGETS - The AFL-CIO, the nation's largest labor federation, was caught off guard (like much of the Democratic coalition) when Donald Trump was elected president, in part due to his strong showing (and Hillary Clinton's weak numbers) among union members. After some soul searching, labor leaders believe they figured out what went wrong: They had stopped listening to rank-and-file union members.
 
"When we don't talk to our members, they don't vote their interests," said Julie Greene, who is leading the AFL-CIO's campaign efforts this cycle, in an interview with Morning Score. "In 2016, in 2014 cycles, we invested in a lot of general public communications. We didn't do our due diligence with knocking on the doors, and making the phone calls and showing up at the work sites of our members.
 
"And what we saw as the result of that, that played out in very real time, much to our surprise, [was our] members weren't voting at levels we saw them in the past." 
 
To combat that, the group is kicking off its Labor 2018 campaign Saturday, with events in at least 26 states. The campaign's purpose, previewed in a call to local union members by AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka and Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) earlier this week, is to make more "member to member" contacts and to listen more to union members -- and ultimately to get them to the polls for labor-backed candidates.
 
The federation is hoping to significantly increase turnout for union members in the midterms, Score has learned. The AFL-CIO wants to drive union member support for labor-endorsed candidates up to 70 percent, an increase from 62 percent in 2014. It also wants to increase union member turnout overall by 5 percent - from 57 percent in the last midterms - and increase the percentage of union members who are registered to vote by 5 percent, up from 72 percent in 2014. The AFL-CIO comprises 55 unions representing 12.5 million people, according to its website. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - The DCCC added two candidates to its 'Red to Blue' program, a list that denotes top-tier races. Jared Golden, who just won the Democratic primary to take on Maine GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, and Richard Ojeda, who's running in the open race to replace West Virginia Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins, are both on the list. A Monmouth University poll released earlier this week found that Ojeda leads Republican candidate Carol Miller. 
 
Good Friday morning. Thanks for reading my first week of Score. I want to hear your feedback! You can reach me at [email-masked] or DM me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Today I had help from Maggie Severns ([email-masked]/ @MaggieSeverns) and Elena Schneider ([email-masked]/ @ec_schneider).
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4 and @JamesArkin. 
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman and Playbook Florida author Marc Caputo for a special Playbook Elections event in the battleground state of Florida to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. Part of the POLITICO-AARP Deciders series, this event will feature exclusive interviews with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies and campaign efforts to address the issues that matter most to voters. The event will take place Friday, June 29 at InterContinental Miami. Doors will open at 8 a.m. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 137.
 
Upcoming election dates - June 26: Colorado, Maryland, New York (congressional), Oklahoma and Utah primaries and Mississippi and South Carolina primary runoffs. 
 
Upcoming filing deadlines - Rhode Island: June 27. - Delaware: July 10.
 
FUTURE OF THE PARTY - The battle between Ben Jealous and Rushern Baker is more than just a fight over which Maryland Democrat will face popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in November - it is a proxy battle in the war over who will control the future of the party. HuffPost's Kevin Robillard dives in on how this race represents a trend: "The clash's fundamentals have repeated themselves again and again in Democratic gubernatorial primaries this election cycle. National Democrats and organizations have backed progressive insurgents, who suggest bold ideas and an expanded electorate are the way to victory. Meanwhile, state party establishments have lined up behind politicians they consider
 safer bets with agendas seen as more palatable to middle-of-the-road voters."
 
- The DNC is also spending millions of dollars to engage voters who usually sit out midterm elections. The New York Times' Astead Herndon: "The plan ... is likely the largest and most comprehensive effort ever by the Democratic Party to motivate minority voters in a midterm election year, according to aides and party insiders briefed on the new efforts. It includes $1.2 million split across 16 state parties to hire community organizers targeting groups who have been historically unlikely to vote - including black, Latino, Asian, millennial and rural voters. The plan also introduces a new database that seeks to identify 25 million likely Democratic voters who are currently unregistered and
 seemingly removed from the political process. The nearly $2.5 million total investment telegraphs the Democratic Party's strategy in November's midterm elections." 
 
McMASTER AND COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF - The president once again pumped up South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who is just days away from what could be a tight primary runoff against businessman John Warren. Trump said the governor "has my full and complete Endrosement [sic]" and signaled what he valued in candidates: "Henry worked so hard & was so loyal to me that I look forward to reciprocating!"
 
- Team Trump is also in damage control mode in Louisiana. The day after POLITICO reported that Rudy Giuliani was backing an obscure primary challenger to Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) who employs his new girlfriend, the president endorsed Higgins with a statement from Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law. The statement, per The Times-Picayune: "We are pleased to announce our support for Rep. Clay Higgins in his race for reelection to the 3rd District of Louisiana today following a personal endorsement by President Trump ... Clay Higgins is a law-and-order congressman who has been a great supporter of President Trump".
 
NEW FLORIDA GOV POLL - Adam Putnam is leading Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) in the GOP gubernatorial primary in a new Fox News poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research. The live caller poll of 901 likely Republican primary voters found Putnam leading with 32 percent to DeStantis' 17 percent. However, a plurality of voters, 39 percent, are undecided, and 12 percent say other or none. The poll was in the field June 15-19.
 
- Both Putnam and DeSantis decided to accept public matching funds, via the Tampa Bay Times.
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **

INSIDE BASEBALL - A fissure between Club for Growth and a prominent GOP firm could have ripple effects for a slew of Republican candidates, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported: "The anti-tax group Club for Growth has split with the prominent Republican advertising firm Jamestown Associates, a rare breakup in the tight-knit world of conservative politics. ... On March 20, Club for Growth President David McIntosh sent a memo to his staff effectively severing its relationship with the firm, which it had previously endorsed at a time when mainstream Republican Party groups were blacklisting Jamestown Associates.
 
"McIntosh's memo, which was obtained by POLITICO, alleged that Jamestown Associates had promised prospective clients that hiring the firm would put them in line to receive an endorsement from the Club for Growth". A partner at Jamestown denied the charges outlined in the memo.
 
"[The memo] could have implications for down-ballot Republican hopefuls - potentially forcing them to choose between the Club for Growth and Jamestown Associates, which produced TV commercials for President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign," Alex writes.
 
BUCKLE UP - The FEC will host a two-day hearing on a proposed internet disclaimer rule. The hearing is next week, on June 27 and 28, on its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking focused on internet disclaimers for digital ads. The commission is tackling the rules in response to foreign election interference during the 2016 elections. Eighteen people are scheduled to testify at the hearing, including several key GOP party officials: RNC Chief Digital Officer Doug Hochberg, NRCC Digital Director Theodore Peterson and NRSC Deputy Digital Director Thomas Reiker. More information here.
 
TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING? - Democrats have been cheering activists' energy across the country. But the downside for some incumbent Democrats is that that very same energy has kicked up a primary challenge of their own. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Jeffery C. Mays take a look at the trend, highlighting New York City races: "While national Democrats have celebrated the President Trump-inspired surge of activist energy coursing through the party in their efforts to take control of the House, many of those same leaders have moved to tame that energy, from Colorado to Massachusetts to New York, when it has turned against them. Beyond [Joe] Crowley and [Carolyn] Maloney,
 Representatives Eliot L. Engel and Yvette D. Clarke also face unusually spirited rivals. All four are Democrats in safely Democratic districts, and all four are heavily favored." (Stick around in the story until you hit the "Tinder banking" anecdote.)
 
CRUZ CONTROL - Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is still easily the favorite in his re-election fight, but his relationship with the president is complicating things - and making his long-term path in the GOP harder to chart. In an interview with the The New York Times' Matt Flegenheimer, Cruz said he was taking his Senate reelection "very seriously," saying "these are strange and volatile times." More: "Asked if he feared the party had become defined more by fealty to Mr. Trump than conservative ideology ... Mr. Cruz did not answer directly. He did allude to the assassination of Julius Caesar. 'There are always raw emotions in the ups and downs of politics,' he said. 'That was true on the Ides of
 March, and it's true today.'"
 
- Cruz's 2018 opponent, Rep. Beto O'Rourke will make a highly anticipated speech today at the state Democratic convention, which was previewed by The Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers Jr.
 
2019 OR BUST? - Democrat Jason Kander, who is frequently mentioned as a dark horse 2020 presidential candidate, could be mulling a run ... for mayor of Kansas City, according to the Kansas City Star. The newspaper reports that he could launch his bid for the April 2019 primary as early as next week, but a Kander spokesman wouldn't confirm it to the paper.
 
CAMPAIGN FINANCE TIDBIT - Former FEC chairman Michael Toner is joining the defense team of William Tierney, an Arizonan facing federal charges for allegedly running a scam PAC scheme. More from Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "Toner, a Republican election lawyer who was an FEC commissioner from 2002 to 2007, has joined Tierney's legal team, according to federal court filings last week. The defense team also includes one of Toner's partners at Wiley Rein, Ralph Caccia, as well as Robert Walker, who is of counsel at the firm. Christopher Mead of London & Mead is representing Robert Tierney, William's brother and co-defendant. Mead, Caccia and Walker are all former federal prosecutors." 
 
DANCING KING - Eric Brakey, the Republican senate candidate in Maine, saw a video of him dancing in a speedo for a commercial go viral last week, drawing jeers from his opponents (and Twitter). His campaign doubled down with a lighthearted digital video of Brakey (in a suit) and his supporters dancing that ends with a message from Brakey: "Whether you dance, or not, I'm going to fight for your right to live free."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "They are not playing it safe with their views. So why should they play it safe with their clothes?" Sonya Gavankar, who gave a lecture on how what women wear plays an outsized role in campaigns at the 2018 Women's Campaign School, to The New York Times.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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