Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Five races to watch on primary day — Ryan wades into Wisconsin Senate race — Kander out for 2020
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2018 08:02:27 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 06/26/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
TIME FOR ANOTHER PRIMARY NIGHT! Tonight, primary contests will be decided in Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, while Mississippi and South Carolina hold primary runoffs. There are a lot of big races on the map, but I've pulled out five that will have larger implications beyond tonight.
 
- In the South Carolina gubernatorial race, the clout of the Trump train is on the line. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence both hit the Palmetto State in the past 72 hours to campaign for Gov. Henry McMaster, who is trying to hold off businessman John Warren in the primary runoff. Trump urged voters to support McMaster at a rally in West Columbia, South Carolina, last night and brought back some hits from the 2016 campaign, The State reported. A win for Warren would be a setback for Trump and company - showing the president's inability to save a longtime supporter in a state he remains popular in. A win for McMaster would show the strength of the president's support (and
 would probably bring a crowing tweet, too).
 
- The GOP primary in New York's 11th District is a clash of two strong personalities, with Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) trying to fend off Michael Grimm, who is trying to reclaim his old seat. Grimm has tried to paint himself as the more Trumpian candidate, but the Trump machine has done its best to cut that claim off at the knees: Trump has endorsed Donovan, and The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher tweeted that Donald Trump Jr. recorded a robocall for Donovan on the eve of the primary, saying a Grimm win would "lose the seat to Nancy Pelosi." Shane's full story is worth the read. 
 
No matter who wins on the GOP side, Democrats say they're feeling good about their chances of flipping New York City's most Republican district. The DCCC blasted out a memo Monday arguing that Max Rose - an Army veteran in its "Red to Blue" program who will likely emerge from the Democratic primary - is in a good position come November because of his strong fundraising and the bruising primary battle on the other side of the ticket.
 
- The Democratic primary in the Maryland gubernatorial race also has the dynamic of national figures squaring off against the state machine. Former NAACP President Ben Jealous has garnered endorsements (and help on the trail) from national figures ranging from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), while state leaders like former Gov. Martin O'Malley and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) have lined up behind Prince George's County Executive Rushern L. Baker III. The winner will face off in November against Gov. Larry Hogan, one of the most popular governors in America who ran unopposed in his primary. Check out a profile of Jealous from The Atlantic's Adam Serwer and keep in
 mind that 80,000 voters were not properly registered due to a computer glitch, meaning they can only cast provisional ballots that won't be counted until July 5.
 
- The battle over the GOP nomination in South Carolina's 4th Congressional District has evolved into a proxy battle between the activist and main-street wings of the party. The race (which I wrote about last week) pits former state Sen. Lee Bright, a conservative bomb-thrower, against state Sen. William Timmons. The seat is in a safely Republican district being vacated by Rep. Trey Gowdy.
 
- A spirit of insurgency is challenging several New York City Democrats. I'm cheating it a bit by grouping a handful of races into one listing, but city Democrats including Reps. Joe Crowley, Carolyn Maloney and Eliot Engel all face primary challengers tonight. And while none of them are expected to lose, the fact that the more progressive wing of the party is willing to challenge incumbent Democrats speaks to the continuing resolve among left-wing activists. And remember, New York's primary elections for governor and other statewide offices will be held in September.
 
- And some grabbag races: Here's a guide to all of New York's competitive seats (keep an eye on the 19th and 24th), profiles from The Colorado Independent on all the remaining gubernatorial candidates in this blueish-purple state, plus a refresher Alex Isenstadt piece on Mitt Romney, who will likely be crowned Utah's senator in waiting after his primary tonight. There's also the Democrats' battle tonight in Colorado's 6th District to face Republican Rep. Mike Coffman. POLITICO's Steve Shepard has more trends to watch, including "Trump's swampy picks" and another Republican who's at risk of going down in a primary.
 
Good Tuesday morning and happy primary day. If anyone knows what a $185 sandwich tastes like, let me know. Send your tips, press releases and suggested rules for an elaborate 2016-themed parlor game to [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. James Arkin ([email-masked]/ @JamesArkin) contributed today.
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @MaggieSeverns, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman, and Playbook Florida author Marc Caputo, for a special Playbook Elections event in the battleground state of Florida to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. This event is part of the POLITICO-AARP "Deciders" series and will feature exclusive interviews with Nelson Diaz, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies and campaign efforts to address the issues that matter most to voters. The event will take place on Friday, June 29, at InterContinental Miami. Doors will open at 8 a.m. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 133. 
 
Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.
 
Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Rhode Island: June 27. - Delaware: July 10.
 
RYAN TRIES TO CEMENT WISCONSIN LEGACY - Speaker Paul Ryan waded into Wisconsin's sometimes ugly GOP Senate primary battle on Monday, endorsing state Sen. Leah Vukmir over businessman Kevin Nicholson. Ryan and Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.), the dean of the Wisconsin congressional delegation, co-wrote an op-ed on Right Wisconsin explaining their endorsement: "Leah is a longtime friend of ours and she has been a conservative partner among grass-roots Republicans for years. She has proven that in the face of opposition, she will never waver and will work relentlessly for the causes that she believes in." 
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Restoration PAC is launching a new $200,000 digital ad buy in support of Nicholson. The digital buy will run today until the Aug. 14 primary. The buy will initially run an ad launched in April on Nicholson's conversion from former Democrat to conservative, comparing him to Ronald Reagan.
 
FROM THE HIGH COURT - The Supreme Court again waded into district mapping, upholding one redistricting plan in Texas and largely punting on one in North Carolina. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein on Texas: "The Supreme Court on Monday upheld nearly all aspects of a Texas redistricting plan adopted in 2013, ruling that lower courts went too far in concluding that the maps were tainted by an intent to discriminate against Latino voters. The 5-4 decision split the court along its usual ideological lines, with all Republican appointees voting to allow the bulk of the Texas Legislature's plan and all Democratic appointees dissenting." 
 
And Josh again on North Carolina: "The Supreme Court on Monday said it is declining, for now, to wade into a dispute over a North Carolina redistricting plan that a lower court had found violated the Constitution by overly favoring Republicans. ... In January, the justices blocked a lower court's order forcing a redraw of the North Carolina congressional map. Monday's order returned the case to the lower court for further consideration of a legal standing issue the court addressed in the Wisconsin case."
 
MAKING IT PERSONAL - As Democratic activists confront Trump administration officials and other prominent Republicans in public, some - but not all - Democratic politicians are worried that it could hurt them at the polls in red states. POLITICO's Elana Schor, Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle: "Democrats don't want to let the GOP reclaim the high ground they've held since the crisis over the separation of migrants' families began. They also don't want to create a distraction that shifts public attention away from the negative consequences of Trump's policies. Their message to their base amounts to: Control and channel your anger with Trump; don't mimic his bare-knuckle style while trying
 to defeat him."
 
ISSUE SIGNALING - GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson donated to five Republicans who strongly opposed the Iran deal. CNBC's Brian Schwartz: "Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller, Virginia Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, California Congresswoman Mimi Walters, Utah Congresswoman Mia Love and Republican candidate for Congress in Nevada's 4th District Cresent Hardy all received campaign contributions from Adelson in May, according to Federal Election Commission records."
 
BUILDING AN ARMY - Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) is well on his way to building a network of like-minded Democrats with his super PAC, Serve America PAC. He told POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere in the latest Off Message podcast that he'll announce a new round of endorsements this week and that "he'll kick off a new phase of campaign travel by the end of the week on trips to Michigan and Ohio, with more stops to come. And he is trying to nurture a community of activism by hosting four in-person meetings of his endorsed candidates, collaborating on joint fundraisers and sharing donor lists" and more. He also told Isaac that he won't challenge Nancy Pelosi to be the leader of House Democrats, and
 didn't rule out a 2020 presidential run or a future Massachusetts Senate bid.
 
YEAR OF THE WOMAN - As we've noted in the past, women - especially Democratic women - have done exceptionally well at the ballot box so far this year. But why? McClatchy's Alex Roarty asked pollsters for their hypotheses: "Their success has intrigued Democratic pollsters, who say the data offer no singular explanations for this phenomenon. Instead, leading pollsters describe multiple factors boosting women this year, ranging from sweeping cultural forces to a subtle feeling among liberal-leaning voters that women are more progressive. The wins are also tied to President Donald Trump, they say, but not just because of his personal behavior. ... Nearly every pollster interviewed emphasized
 one point: Women running for office are benefiting just as much from male voters as female voters. It isn't just female voters (who make up between 55 percent and 60 percent of the primary electorate) who want the party to nominate women."
 
TURNOUT TEA LEAVES? - For those looking for signs of a blue wave, The New York Times' Adam Pearce and Alex Burns presents one: "In more than 20 of the most competitive House races of 2018, the share of Democrats voting in primaries notably increased, compared with 2014, the last midterm election cycle." Click through for a cool visual representation of the data (and the 123 districts where Democratic turnout has risen more sharply than the GOP's).
 
ONE OUT FOR 2020 - Democratic rising star Jason Kander made his bid for Kansas City mayor official on Monday, telling POLITICO's Dovere that he'll "speak out" against Trump from a different platform. If you had him in your 2020 Democratic presidential nominee pool, you're out of a luck.
 
CODA - "It's a love tap between friends," Axiom Strategies founder Jeff Roe on a Club for Growth ad attacking his firm as "a team of Trump bashers," to Campaign Pro.
 
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