Subject: Making Mexico Great Again: July 1st Election Report DHGE June 26, 2018
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2018 18:19:22 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

There are several black swan events that could occur in the second half 
of this year-a coup in North Korea, devaluation of the Chinese yuan in 
response to a trade war, a change of leadership in Germany or an Italian 
Brexit. We're not predicting that any of these will occur, but each is 
possible and could have enormous effects on geopolitical stability and 
the global economy.

Of all of these possibilities, an economic and political crisis in 
Mexico seems the most probable, and the least expected in terms of 
severity. $8T of emerging market equity markets are already in a bear 
market, including China's. Mexico's likely abandonment of both macro and 
micro reforms, a social spending spree, and enmity towards its northern 
neighbor could all prove highly destructive to its economy by 2019.

We have asked two political scientists who specialize in Latin America, 
Evan Ellis and Isidro Morales Moreno, to contribute their thoughts on 
the probable outcomes of Sunday's elections in Mexico. You will find my 
report attached, with links to their articles and biographies.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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