Subject: POLITICO Playbook, presented by Chevron: Understanding what Joe Crowley’s drubbing means for D.C.
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 27 Jun 2018 04:32:16 -0600
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Today's POLITICO Playbook presented by Chevron 
            
By ANNA PALMER ([email-masked]; @apalmerdc), JAKE SHERMAN ([email-masked]; @JakeSherman) and DANIEL LIPPMAN ([email-masked]; @dlippman)
        
Listen to today's Audio Briefing
                  Driving the Day         
ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ's double-digit drubbing of HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS CHAIRMAN JOE CROWLEY in last night's New York primary is as seismic of a defeat in the House since Eric Cantor lost to Dave Brat in 2014. (It's kind of different than Cantor, but keep reading, we'll get there.) 

THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS -- which Crowley chairs -- was beginning, for the first time, to allow a conversation about a transition toward a new leadership structure, which he could've led. Some allies and friends of NANCY PELOSI were even envisioning a scenario -- far off, for sure -- in which she served as speaker for some period of time in a Democratic majority, and set up a situation in which Crowley could take the reins.

NO LONGER. Just like when Cantor was turned out of office in 2014, the Democratic leadership structure is going to be confronted with serious upheaval. To be sure, Crowley was not perfect for House Democrats. He was a middle-aged white man as the party turned more diverse. He was a big-city party boss in an age of insurgency. But, like Cantor -- who also ran counter to party trends at the time -- Crowley was seen as safe and stable. 

NOW, the race for the Democratic leadership will be wide open. It's too early to say definitively what this means for PELOSI, JIM CLYBURN and STENY HOYER, the 78-, 77- and 79-year olds who have been in Congress a combined 93 years. 

IS THE MESSAGE you got from last night that the party wants leaders in their upper 70s who have been in Washington for three decades? Seventy-something year old leaders, have a laundry list of votes and positions they've taken and been part of the machine the base is railing on. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE: 63 Democrats voted against Pelosi in the last leadership election. More than a dozen candidates this cycle have said they would follow suit.

A SENIOR HOUSE DEMOCRATIC AIDE, however, pushed back on the idea that Crowley's defeat has any bearing on Pelosi: "Tonight's developments have little practical impact on the race for the top Democratic slot since Pelosi has made clear that she's staying put. Real question is which younger Members of leadership will step up in their leadership roles. One real way to do that now is to raise money now. We literally are in a position of where we cannot afford the opportunity that exists on the map."

WHY THIS IS NOT EXACTLY LIKE ERIC CANTOR'S DEFEAT. Cantor lost to Dave Brat in 2014, but Brat was emblematic of the tea party wave that had come ashore four years earlier. The Republican Party had already been struggling with -- and confronting -- the rightward-shifting elements of its party. Democrats -- especially elected Democrats in Congress -- have not had to do that yet. 

-- CHARTING THE FALL ... GLORIA PAZMINO and LAURA NAHMIAS: "From future speaker to primary loser: Inside Crowley's crushing defeat": "Ocasio-Cortez pounded the pavement and never wavered from her message: Crowley was out of touch with his district and could no longer represent a community of Latino, Asian and African immigrants whose families and friends face an existential threat from the Trump Administration." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c238a8eaa8f461cf7a3b736064661f709cefe83838575b2a37dc2c7b0db8fd0850ba4e2195598bda1c 

GREG GIROUX -- Bloomberg's Hill election expert (@greggiroux): "Congress has never had a woman under 30 in its membership. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is 28. #ny14 ... The youngest woman ever elected? Elise Stefanik (R-NY) at 30 in 2014. She's seeking 3rd term in #ny21".

-- "Who Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? A Democratic Giant Slayer," by NYT's Vivian Wang: "She has never held elected office. She is still paying off her student loans. She is 28 years old. 'Women like me aren't supposed to run for office,' Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in a viral campaign video released last month. They certainly weren't supposed to win." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2aa86985dce301b79d1bedf72a96fe964a65e6830c3ad97b1a092c7ccc2a7264a23d539c6b1ae8995 ... CBSN interview with Ocasio-Cortez  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c24e3bfce653b69a0ddcf67a7d3d58c952dcaf501328225fe400577dbf15493e89d1d164a43f7b7b1d ... Intercept profile  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2cd5d157363b55a4f54f2bde2cf79bc5964b55de4bfc980787d50ab2c9fd86979ed43119971df614c 

-- WAPO'S DAVE WEIGEL: "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: The Democrat who challenged her party's establishment - and won" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c29a65c0a247a8a7b979adb15fdc9ee7395ace4542c2093321878d2ed627626f5015eb8afaf12d5d72 

STAT OF THE DAY ... OCASIO-CORTEZ spent $128,140 from the beginning of April to June 6. Crowley spent $1.1 million over the same period.

REP. STEVE STIVERS (R-OHIO), the chairman of the NRCC, weighs in with an 11 p.m. message to Team Playbook: "2018 Democratic Primaries require a major investment from establishment D's, or the results wildly favor progressive candidates. 

"When they spend, they take money from the General Election. ($10 million spent in California - that's 5 less races in the Fall) When they don't spend, they get less electable candidates (Eastman, Balter & Delgado). 

"Either outcome is good for us. And Crowley losing means there is no clear alternative to Nancy Pelosi."

****** A message from Chevron: This is a story about DOERS Country, jobs, and jump-starts. See how Chevron and local partners are helping DOERS like Bo Hampson get the hands-on technical training for today's jobs. Learn more. ******

THINK OF THIS ... EVERY SINGLE "next" House Democratic leader is gone. Joe Crowley lost. Xavier Becerra is AG of California. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is a senator. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida to the DNC, where she was pushed out of the chairmanship.

-- HEATHER CAYGLE ON THE LEADERSHIP MACHINATIONS: "Crowley's defeat could put pressure on other members of the caucus to declare their ambitions now, given that spots rarely open up in House Democratic leadership without an assumed successor.

"Chief among them is Rep. Linda Sanchez, vice chairwoman of the caucus and No. 5 behind Crowley. The California Democrat had been seen as the most vulnerable member of the leadership team after publicly calling last fall for Pelosi, Hoyer and Assistant Minority Leader James Clyburn (D-S.C.) to move on to make way for a new generation.

"Sanchez could declare her intentions to run for House Democratic Caucus chair now that Crowley is no longer in the picture. But the opening could also prompt other younger, ambitious members to vie for the post. Lawmakers including Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) were being floated by Democratic members and aides Tuesday night." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2b4ef627d96629ed08d781cd54f2cc54c8cae4a4a76a2609793d4c2d1a95a3d1581f8579022b937e0

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION? Tough to say. Republicans were gleeful that they can focus their party's attention on Pelosi, whose approval ratings are at their lowest point since October of 2010. 

... BUT, BUT, BUT: Yes, Ocasio-Cortez's message was a progressive one, but it was also anti incumbent. "It's time we acknowledge that not all Democrats are the same. That a Democrat who takes corporate money, profits off foreclosure, doesn't live here, doesn't send his kids to our schools, doesn't drink our water or breathe our air cannot possibly represent us," she said in her much ballyhooed campaign video. 

-- THAT'S a message that could fell longtime Republicans or Democrats across the country. The video http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2aedbcd8bb4107410e22fba3f07f0c8ab35ae8e63fcc653e8f8d5934e3d7e19910ddb135d39236eaa 

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR 2020 ... THE LEFTWARD LURCH ... If you thought Democrats were already leaning left, look now for the lurch. After last night, can you envision the forces running the Democratic Party today anointing a Joe Biden-type candidate?

PRESIDENT TRUMP ON CROWLEY -- @realDonaldTrump at 10:18 p.m.: "Wow! Big Trump Hater Congressman Joe Crowley, who many expected was going to take Nancy Pelosi's place, just LOST his primary election. In other words, he's out! That is a big one that nobody saw happening. Perhaps he should have been nicer, and more respectful, to his President!"

THIS TAKE is unlikely to get repeated by many people who understand what happened last night. Crowley got beat by a woman who ran to his left.

Good Wednesday morning. LIVESTREAM our event with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) this morning around 8:15 a.m. Livestream link  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2a628e511eaa3145937eb7127576429fbb9490e3d834f90cadca749ef479b4a64e64760038a899207 

THE HOUSE will vote today on the "compromise" immigration bill, which is likely to fail.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: THE DCCC is already going up with a digital ad buy against New York GOP Rep. Dan Donovan -- who beat ex-con Michael Grimm last night -- as a tool of Republicans, namely President Donald Trump. "I've supported the president 90 percent of the time in my votes ... I voted seven times to repeal Obamacare." The spot ends with Donovan holding up photos of President Trump and VP Mike Pence, with Donovan saying they should be in every post office, with the text "desperate" on the screen. The 30-second spot  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2921753f42f9e9640cd8f92b909ef26299fecffe13e87d89811dc754a4c8e6ab73edeb6c8f8919935 

-- DONOVAN faces Democrat Max Rose, an Army veteran, in the district, which includes Staten Island and Brooklyn. Trump won the district by 10 in 2016, but Democrats carried it in the past. Democrats are hoping it's a competitive race after Donovan ran to the right to beat Grimm. 

IMPORTANT NUGGETS AS YOU START YOUR DAY ... 

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: THE AMERICAN ACTION NETWORK is spending $2 million on an ad campaign thanking Republicans and Democrats for supporting legislation that fights opioid addiction. The 30-second spot http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2631cbfa2930796bb1bc9f97643301b7257b9d2f01c94e9e87461d2ec3333ce7036333ed093857529 ... The list of members who will get ads http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c28a49693ef56aef9a8c6aec87492aee39041fa17a0ecd0e5cfeb8a0da3bebaca53b30c6a5c9989e2c 

-- STAKEOUT ALERT ... TRADE WAR UPDATE ... Freshman Republicans will get a private briefing from USTR Robert Lighthizer today at 10:30 a.m. in 340 Cannon. "This briefing will be an opportunity to discuss the importance of NAFTA to our nation's farmers, manufacturers, and families," the notice from Pennsylvania Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) reads. Photo of the invite http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2a45bc47ab91138af03f478d65ade21d8c9365fab7a1d863dc170487fef8af56289a01960da2f39f5 

MEGAN CASELLA: "'This would widen the trade war tenfold': U.S. automakers say no to Trump's car tariffs" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c27139651fe125516eba7e1cf7f4411799828a18a19e6dbe2e1f4296069d350421567dec3996cf2fd1 

THE PRESIDENT'S NEW ECONOMIC TEAM? ... CNBC'S KAYLA TAUSCHE: Larry "Kudlow is considering Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners, for the role of deputy director, according to three people familiar with the matter. He is also considering bringing on Stephen Moore -- economist, conservative commentator and close personal friend of Kudlow's -- for a senior advisory role, these people said." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c26aa3efb27fc9cd2610659e3ed1437ffa0eea578da0c9a5edea3a40d68f629cc05c1b0089979617e3 

-- WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE -- FT'S SHAWN DONNAN: "Another top Trump trade adviser to leave White House": "Everett Eissenstat served as the president's representative to the G7, G20 and Apec summits, and was the top international economic policy mind on both the national economic and security councils. 

"He was the official left to sit in the president's chair after Mr. Trump left an acrimonious G7 summit in Quebec early this month. In his role Mr. Eissenstat, who was a key adviser to former National Economic Council head Gary Cohn and previously served as the top trade staffer on the powerful Senate Finance Committee, was a major player in discussions on trade and China policy. 

"A pro-trade Republican, he was seen by many in Washington as an important balancing voice to trade hawks in the administration - including Peter Navarro, the former academic economist who has become one of Mr. Trump's most influential protectionist advisers." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2955a2828f6a52b1762c4836f4a44ab832a9f7c81a01f67a3238b4e08429cdb7ce9a48a4f6a442f9d 

BREAKING... IMMIGRATION -- "Federal Judge in California Halts Splitting of Migrant Families at Border," by NYT's Mike Shear, Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Tom Kaplan and Robert Pear: "A federal judge in California issued a nationwide injunction late Tuesday temporarily stopping the Trump administration from separating children from their parents at the border and ordered that all families already separated be reunited within 30 days.

"Judge Dana M. Sabraw of the Federal District Court in San Diego said children under 5 must be reunited with their parents within 14 days, and he ordered that all children must be allowed to talk to their parents within 10 days. "The unfortunate reality is that under the present system, migrant children are not accounted for with the same efficiency and accuracy as property," the judge wrote." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2f0372093f8f162e54a8558701627042b14f3be92312bd8a904e42e8f642bc0e6e55ab16d1108ae7b

-- ABC NEWS' JOHN SANTUCCI (@Santucci): "NEW - First Lady Melania Trump planning another trip to a detention center housing immigrants. Spokesperson tells @ABC News - 'Mrs. Trump plans to visit additional facilities sometime this week.' No further details provided - would me Mrs. Trump's second trip after last week".

-- ELANA SCHOR and BURGESS EVERETT: "Immigration outcry spurs Trump 2020 challengers": "Democratic Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey cracked the door open to running in 2020 over the past week, while Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon, the first Democrat to visit the border and a much longer shot for president, said that he's 'exploring' a 2020 bid.

"Of course, Merkley, Booker, and Harris didn't choose the current moment to edge forward - the moment seems to have chosen them. Bipartisan criticism of Trump's immigration policy has given ambitious Democrats an opening to present themselves as leaders against the president's polarizing agenda, as polls show independent voters siding with Democrats against the splintering of migrant families." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2208b010a7e1debd1024056a69a475c6da29d93ebaec21835b19e6800b50b51ab409827721f80974d

-- POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL: "Poll: Voters back Trump's about-face on family separations" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c203b8e3f99369c1a10f726be6ec20843f151a2cab30cae3b64538849342e8b68db87326667f064416 

WHAT THE TRAVEL BAN RULING MEANS ... "Travel-ban ruling could embolden Trump in remaking the U.S. immigration system," by WaPo's David Nakamura: "President Trump's victory Tuesday in the Supreme Court's ratification of his travel ban marked a milestone in his attempt to paint broad swaths of immigrants as dangerous - a rhetorical strategy that has underpinned the administration's sweeping efforts to unilaterally curtail immigration. Since taking office 18 months ago, Trump has amplified, and attempted to codify into policy, his campaign-trail warnings of the threats posed by foreigners who attempt to enter the United States, including those who come through legal channels.... 

"Critics expressed fears that the court's ruling would embolden Trump to further test the limits of his statutory authority to enforce border-control laws without explicit approval from lawmakers." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2a6bda4eb308bbe4ea7186ce20a50f9a51faca9966091b7af9b710f4fac9acd0a4087a730579b2a5d 

-- AXIOS' JONATHAN SWAN (@jonathanvswan): "Steve Bannon texts, unprompted, responding to news of Supreme Court upholding Trump's travel ban: 'Travel ban vindication big deal for his psyche--reinforces his instincts are right and the haters are wrong.' (original punctuation preserved.)"

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "U.S. Toughens Stance on Future Iran Oil Exports," by WSJ's Ian Talley: "The U.S. threatened to slap sanctions on countries that don't cut oil imports from Iran to 'zero' by Nov. 4, part of the Trump administration's push to further isolate Tehran both politically and economically, a senior U.S. State Department official said. Buyers of Iranian crude had expected the U.S. would allow them time to reduce their oil imports over a much longer period, by issuing sanctions waivers for nations that made significant efforts to cut their purchases.

"That expectation was partly based on previous comments from top Trump officials, as well as the Obama administration's earlier effort to wean the world off Iranian oil over several years. But the senior State Department official said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump's administration doesn't plan to issue any waivers and would instead be asking other Middle Eastern crude exporters over the coming days to ensure oil supply to global markets." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c251e405f7dff0c0e78e9bf66e3d177cc8ca10c662ae5210f6f4aa3f759efd211c706c7e8ec6adf5dc 

JOE BIDEN speaks to WaPo's JOSH ROGIN in Copenhagen: "European leaders see President Trump as increasingly unpredictable, antagonistic and disrespectful, both in public and private, and that is having a devastating effect on the U.S.-European relationship and the transatlantic alliance, according to former vice president Joe Biden. 'The things that are the most debilitating from the perspective of most of the Europeans is the way he conducts himself when he is with allies,' Biden told me in an interview at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, a gathering of Western leaders to discuss the plight of democracy worldwide. 'Several of them have said to me the degree of disrespect shown is
 debilitating.'

"One European diplomat told me that in a private White House meeting in March, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven explained to Trump that Sweden, although not a member of NATO, partners with the alliance on a case-by-case basis. Trump responded that the United States should consider that approach. A senior administration official told me Trump was joking. I asked Biden whether this crisis in the democratic world makes him want to run for president in 2020. He said no. 'It makes me feel guilty about not wanting to [run for president],' he said. 'But it doesn't make me want to. I'm not looking to live in the White House, I've seen it up close.' He then added: 'But all kidding aside, I don't
 know what I'm going to do.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2a8f84ca1321e77480c39411a68cc7e9a1db193c8e1e9e37a9ddcb250b3dd8b2ea0eca16f00e622f6

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... 

-- "House panel pushes resolution for DOJ to hand over Russia probe documents," by Kyle Cheney and John Bresnahan: "The House Rules Committee is preparing to advance a resolution demanding that the Justice Department turn over reams of documents connected to special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing investigation, a move that would put the measure on the cusp of consideration by the House as soon as this week.

"The committee is slated to consider the proposal on Wednesday afternoon, a day after it was approved by the Judiciary Committee. The proposal, offered by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), demands that the Justice Department turn over a broad slate of documents by July 6.

"The measure, a so-called resolution of inquiry, is unenforceable but would, for the first time, put the Republican-led House on record demanding sensitive documents, escalating a confrontation that has so far been relegated to a handful of powerful House committees." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2dcea0c0f5524d7f1ac1cb4e483ffafb2dae88e0f865a0bee70507e7548dbc16f0471c270e49e529a

TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY -- The president will speak at the "Face-to-Face With our Future" event in the afternoon. He is having lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. In the afternoon, he is meeting with Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. He will then travel to Fargo, North Dakota, where he will participate in a campaign rally. 

YOU'RE INVITED -- Join us, along with Playbook Florida co-author Marc Caputo, for a Playbook Elections event FRIDAY at the InterContinental Miami. It's part of the POLITICO-AARP "Deciders" series. We'll talk with Nelson Diaz, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies. Doors open at 8 a.m. RSVP http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2f08cca9614f2b0472757fa71bbd717d284046e5a2a3cd06983ea3f86b384519487e0fc496906841d

          Playbook Reads         

PHOTO DU JOUR: U.S. Ambassador to United Nations Nikki Haley talks to media during a tour of the tomb of Mughal Emperor Humayun in New Delhi on Wednesday. | Manish Swarup/AP Photo 

WEDNESDAY LISTEN -- ANNA spoke with the founding members of the BLACK WOMEN'S CONGRESSIONAL ALLIANCE in the latest "Women Rule" podcast. Via REENA FLORES: "'We literally show up with our binder full of women'": "There is little comprehensive information about the gender and racial makeup of congressional staff offices. But according to 2015 data from the Joint Center for Political and Economic studies, a nonprofit think tank, only about 7 percent of senior Senate staffers (a chief of staff, legislative director, communications director or staff director for a committee) were minorities.

"And even when black women do make it into the halls of Congress, it can be difficult to thrive there. 'In my boss' office when we came in ... the expectations weren't high,' [Rhonda] Foxx recalled. 'People were like, 'If you want to be taken seriously, maybe you should hire a white man as your LD,' or legislative director.'

"There are always micro-aggressions, the chief of staff said, but her solution to them is to view it as fuel for her ambitions. 'When you are with your boss and they ask you, 'Are you the secretary?' or, 'Are you the scheduler?' - because no one assumes that we're chief of staffs or comms directors - let that be your fire,' Foxx said." Listen to the full convo with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) chief of staff Jennifer DeCasper (whose birthday is today) and Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.) communications director Meaghan Lynch http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2f100d145125a6a79b4b72bc88dbda9522b4b4331db0a37cc27b9caababea3f9e568078e3ddca2895

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "White House eyes Helsinki for Trump-Putin sitdown," by Annie Karni and Andrew Restuccia: "The White House is blocking off three days on the back end of President Donald Trump's mid-July trip to the United Kingdom and Brussels, leaving room for a potential summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

"Plans for a potential sit-down are still being finalized, White House sources warned. But the current front-runner venue under consideration for the meeting, a source familiar with the planning said, is Helsinki, the capital of Finland. 

"The location would offer Putin his desired neutral ground in a country close enough to Russia that he could return to Moscow in time for the final World Cup match on July 15. While nothing final about a potential summit has been put in writing, 'everyone's preparing as if it's Helsinki,' said a person familiar with the planning." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c21922c70d092f0f57e81c16d0de29dd1853d0786a6e54656152279a9d9e6e631b87a09b1f7b6c3dd6 

SCHOCK UPDATE ... "Top Aaron Schock prosecutor off the case," by Josh Gerstein: "The federal prosecutor who has led the investigation into former Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.) for more than three years is officially off the criminal corruption case, just as it appears to be finally heading for trial.

"Timothy Bass, a veteran prosecutor who heads the public-corruption unit for the U.S. Attorney's Office for Central Illinois, notified the federal court there on Tuesday that he was formally withdrawing from the prosecution team." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2be9ec498ef8ba11d6df1c9afa64ccdc25e44b0e72ed937d5c685fce3372978ceb0d11928bf840d82 

TOP-ED - ASHRAF GHANI in the NYT, "I Will Negotiate With the Taliban Anywhere": "For the first time in nearly four decades of fighting, the Afghan government announced a unilateral cease-fire for eight days. The Taliban reciprocated shortly after with a cease-fire for three days over the Eid holiday. ... Both international and national observers and analysts argued that almost four decades of conflict had fragmented Afghanistan to the extent that reconciliation and acceptance of each other were going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible. ... 

"Another assumption was that Taliban fighters would never stop fighting and accept their fellow citizens. But our cease-fire was endorsed by the Taliban leadership and relished by their fighters. Ordinary people welcomed them warmly and demonstrated that every Afghan is tired of war and desires an end to it at any cost." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c222bf4294d963783acacef0d37bffca860f03d2d4655c22aca9f4bdbf7c3884772de733aed4c7df66 

****** A message from Chevron: Chevron and local partners are helping to provide DOERS with the hands-on technical training needed for today's jobs in the manufacturing and energy industries. Watch the video. ******

DATA DU JOUR -- "Women underrepresented in key jobs at FBI, DEA, ATF and Marshals Service," by WaPo's Devlin Barrett: "Female FBI agents, DEA agents, ATF agents and deputy marshals are still distinct minorities in the ranks of law enforcement, according to a new audit that also found women are rarely promoted to key jobs at the nation's premier law enforcement agencies. Justice Department Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz issued a report Tuesday detailing stark differences between how women and men are employed in federal law enforcement.

"In 2016, women comprised just 16 percent of criminal investigators employed at the agencies - even though women account for 57 percent of the rest of the agencies' workforce. Within the work cultures of those agencies, criminal investigators - special agents or deputy marshals - are widely regarded as the most important and influential employees, and the ones most likely to receive big promotions. The numbers vary by agency. At the FBI, about 1 in 5 special agents are women. The ratio is about 1 in 10 for deputy marshals." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c2f84144cd4df5f78c6faab03e72eb93e1d4f2b1bf0b842cd6cfa81d3d49a9f9b0863785dd1eeb35e2 

K-STREET FILES - "Former Trump chief of staff Reince Priebus offered advice to T-Mobile," by Theo Meyer, Marianne Levine and Daniel Lippman: "Former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus has offered advice to T-Mobile, according to three people familiar with the situation, making him at least the second Trump insider in contact with the company in recent months. Two of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss it, said Priebus had communicated with T-Mobile about its merger with Sprint, which requires approval from the Justice Department. The people familiar with the conversations could not say whether any formal arrangement existed
 between Priebus and the company. Priebus declined to comment. T-Mobile didn't respond to multiple requests for comment." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c252be2cdfc1360549374a174f5062cc823158534a002be5e3e62f16faac943627dc0ce2df270de470 

DANIEL'S POSTCARD FROM ASPEN -- KORI SCHAKE, of the Hoover Institution, on a panel called "Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy," talked about the strategies foreign leaders have used to influence Trump: "Prime Minister Netanyahu and also to some extent the heads of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are indulging President Trump's worst excesses in order to gain near term tactical achievements: the Jerusalem Embassy, support for the war in Yemen.

"That may prove a Pyrrhic victory, because in the case of Israel, it may politicize support for Israel in a way that we haven't seen before. ... The Gulf states believe they see an American administration that looks a lot like the Gulf states ... There's no difference between the person and the business of the state."

-- TOM WRIGHT of Brookings: "The real moment is the election in 2020 because if he's re-elected, I think it's game over for the post-war strategy, the post-war liberal international order. At that stage, countries say, it was a good run."

MEDIAWATCH ... JOSH LEDERMAN to NBC - He is joining as a national political reporter on the network's national security and politics investigative team. He most recently has covered foreign policy, national security and the State Department for The Associated Press.
                  Playbookers         
SCOTT MULHAUSER is launching Aperture Strategies, "a new strategic advisory and communications firm." Mulhauser most recently served as chief of staff for the U.S. embassy in Beijing under Ambassador Max Baucus, who he worked for in the Senate, as well. 

-- MULHAUSER'S note to friends: "Aperture's launch stems from discussions with many of you and the opportunities that followed. Providing friends - and their friends - help on the communications front and perspective on the many developments in Washington, D.C., Beijing, the interplay between the two and beyond, drove my eagerness to focus formally in this space." Aperture's website http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c26b7a605fe1ee612f258face8ed9ca8a803aead9c8335f7dd2738ad26d10697fbfb865b57a716cf44 

HAPPY 25th ANNIVERSARY to Jeff Goldberg and Pamela Reeves, celebrating in Aspen.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ilya Shapiro, senior fellow in constitutional studies at the Cato Institute and EIC of the Cato Supreme Court Review, is 41. A trend he thinks deserves more attention: "Thanks to capitalism and globalization, the number of people in extreme poverty around the world fell by about 137,000 since yesterday-and every day in the last 25 years. Relatedly, we seem to have solved hunger, with no famines outside of warzones and Africa developing an obesity problem." Read his Playbook Plus Q&A:  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f6ce02240f5c08c20fb0c727851216dc6bacb2278bbda54926e5e8b4bde452d8645c84293b920904b272a5da65ff60e0 

BIRTHDAYS: Kelly Ayotte is 5-0 (hat tip: Liz Johnson) ... Ross Perot is 88 ... former Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt is 8-0 ... Carolina Hurley, WH director of regional media ... Hunter Morgen, special policy analyst for the WH senior adviser and a Trump campaign alum ... Sarah Habansky of DOE ... Tony Fratto, partner at Hamilton Place Strategies (h/t Ryan) ... former Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) is 77 ... former Rep. Jeff Miller (R-Fla.) is 59 ... Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) is 73 ... Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.) is 39 ... FP1 Strategies founding partner Terry Nelson is 49 ... twin bros Bob and Louis Boorstin ... Josh Rubin ... Reuters' David Shepardson (h/ts Mitchell Rivard and Andrea Bitely)
 ... George Malkin, who recently graduated from Stanford GSB ... Politico's Eleanor Mueller ... France Latremoliere ... Casey Davis-Van Atta ... Brent Roske ... Jesse Lehrich ... Jennifer DeCasper, COS for Sen. Tim Scott (h/t Christopher Gahan) ... Kathleen Welch (h/t Jon Haber) ... Caroline Adler Morales, comms director for Michelle Obama ... 

... Ron Kirk, senior of counsel in Gibson, Dunn, is 64 ... Sarah Bovim of Whirlpool (h/t Kelley McCormick) ... PBS' Jennifer Rankin Byrne (h/ts Paula Kerger and Jeremy Gaines, filing from Aspen) ... Scott Livingston is 5-0 ... The New Yorker's Anna Russell is 28 ... RoseAnn Gerson ... Paul Tencher, COS for Sen. Ed Markey, is 38 ... Robert Schlesinger ... Jon Cardinal ... Geoff Gilson ... Jim Nussle, president of America's Credit Unions and a former congressman and OMB director, is 58 ... NYT's Lisa Friedman ... Ditto PR, focusing on crypto and blockchain PR, is 6 (h/t Blain Rethmeier) ... Isaac Reyes, lobbyist for Target ... CNN's Carrie Stevenson and Justin Lear ... Alex Barniea ... Gordon
 Gerstein ... Matthew Tilghman is 31 ... Matt Letourneau ... Teresa V Wells ... ... Kerri Toloczko ... Barry Blackman ... David Kelley ... Mike Sanders ... Monica Showalter ... Steve Beste ... Susan Firey ... Eve Galanter ... Rachelle VanGalder ... Reva Bottles ... Taylor Lane (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

****** A message from Chevron: See how Chevron, with local partners, is helping DOERS get the hands-on technical training needed for jobs in the energy and manufacturing industries. Watch the video. ******

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