Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Ocasio-Cortez unseats Crowley in NY-14 shocker — McMaster, Donovan ride Trump train to victory — Good polls for Senate and VA-10 Democrats
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Jun 2018 08:04:31 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Zach Montellaro | 06/27/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Maggie Severns
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
AN INCUMBENT NEW YORK CITY CONGRESSMAN WENT DOWN last night. It just wasn't the one that everyone was watching. In the upset of the cycle so far, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez took out Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) in decisive fashion in the Democratic primary in New York's 14 District. Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old Democratic socialist, ran on an unapologetically progressive platform that included Medicare for all and a federal jobs guarantee. "I think what we've seen is that working class Americans want a clear champion and there is nothing radical about moral clarity in 2018," she told local TV station NY1 shortly before the race was called.
 
Crowley, the no. 4 Democrat in the House, outraised Ocasio-Cortez more than 10-to-1 - but Ocasio-Cortez marshaled that against him, attacking the incumbent for accepting corporate and lobbying contributions. At the end of the day, she had more of what counts: votes at the ballot box. POLITICO New York's Jimmy Vielkind has more on Ocasio-Cortez's background and POLITICO New York's Gloria Pazmino and Laura Nahmias look at how Crowley missed the upset brewing in his own backyard.
 
Crowley conceded the race fairly quickly and his camp issued a statement congratulating Ocasio-Cortez. "I look forward to supporting her and all Democrats this November," he said (he also dedicated a performance of "Born to Run" to Ocasio-Cortez).
 
And what of the New York City congressman who saw gallons of ink spilled over his potential primary weakness? Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) skated by former Rep. Michael Grimm in the GOP primary in New York's 11th District in a race that ended up not being particularly close. On the other side of the aisle, Max Rose won the Democratic primary.
 
MCMASTER OF HIS DOMAIN - Gov. Henry McMaster beat back a challenge from businessman John Warren last night, dispatching him by just under five points. McMaster's win, combined with Donovan's, made President Donald Trump a happy man last night. He put some of his political clout on the line by endorsing both, and their victories further cements the GOP as the party of Trump. Trump tweeted his congratulations to both victors last night, and spiked the football over Crowley's loss, tweeting "perhaps he should have been nicer, and more respectful, to his President!" (I'm fairly confident Ocasio-Cortez won't be any nicer to him).
 
ELECTION ROUNDUP - The intrepid James Arkin and Scott Bland of Campaign Pro have takeaways from all across the seven primary states last night. If you're just looking for just the calls, check below or see the full results from Colorado, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah.
 
Gubernatorial:
 
- In Colorado, Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) and GOP state treasurer Walker Stapleton both comfortably won their primaries and will face off in November.
 
- In Maryland, former NAACP chair Ben Jealous topped Rushern Baker III in the Democratic primary and will face GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in the fall.
 
- In Oklahoma, Republicans Mick Cornett and Kevin Stitt advanced to a primary runoff. Democrat Drew Edmondson won his primary.
 
Senate: 
 
- In Utah, Mitt Romney cruised to victory in the GOP primary.
 
House: 
 
- In CO-02, Democrat Joe Neguse won the primary to replace Polis in his Democratic-leaning House district.
 
- In CO-06, Jason Crow handily beat Levi Tillemann for the Democratic nomination in this battleground seat, where he will face GOP Rep. Mike Coffman.
 
- In MD-06, millionaire businessman David Trone won the Democratic nod in this blue seat.
 
- In MS-03, Republican Michael Guest won the primary runoff in this safe red seat.
 
- In NY-01, Perry Gershon won the Democratic primary and will face Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) in November.
 
- In NY-09, incumbent Rep. Yvette Clarke's (D-N.Y.) narrowly won her race against Adem Bunkeddeko. She had just 52 percent when the AP called the race.
 
- In NY-12, incumbent Rep. Carolyn Maloney got just 59 percent against her primary challenger Suraj Patel.
 
- In NY-19, Antonio Delgado won the Democratic primary to face Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.).
 
- In NY-21, Democrat Tedra Cobb won the primary to face Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).
 
- In NY-23, Max Della Pia is leading by 26 votes over Tracy Mitrano in the Democratic primary with all the precincts reporting, but the AP has not called the race.
 
- In NY-24, DCCC-endorsed Juanita Perez Williams lost big to Dana Balter in the Democratic primary. Balter will take on Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) in November.
 
- In NY-25, Democrat Joseph Morelle won the primary in this safe blue seat.
 
- In OK-01, Republican district attorney Tim Harris advanced out of the runoff. The second runoff candidate has yet to been called by the AP.
 
- IN OK-02, incumbent Rep. Markwayne Mullin just dodged a runoff, winning 54 percent.
 
- IN SC-04, state Sen. William Timmons won the Republican primary runoff against former state Sen. Lee Bright in this safe GOP seat.
 
Good Wednesday morning. Send your tips, thoughts and denials about playing elaborate 2016-themed parlor games to [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. Maggie Severns ([email-masked]/@MaggieSeverns) contributed today. And just because this story is too fun to drop, here's the guy who actually designed that now infamous parlor game weighing in on Techdirt.
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman, and Playbook Florida author Marc Caputo, for a special Playbook Elections event in the battleground state of Florida to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. This event is part of the POLITICO-AARP "Deciders" series and will feature exclusive interviews with Nelson Diaz, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies and campaign efforts to address the issues that matter most to voters. The event will take place on Friday, June 29, at InterContinental Miami. Doors will open at 8 a.m. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 132.
 
Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.
 
Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Rhode Island: June 27. - Delaware: July 10.
 
HAPPENING TODAY - FEC beings two-day internet disclaimer hearing: The Federal Election Commission is holding two days of hearings on its proposed rules for online political ad disclaimers. Today's hearing begins at 9:30 a.m. More information here.
 
POLL-A-PALOOZA - A trio of NBC/Marist polls brings good news for Democrats. The polls found Democrats leading Senate races in Arizona, Florida and Ohio. Campaign Pro's James Arkin (click through if you want the methodologies): "In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema maintains a double-digit advantage over all three of her potential Republican opponents. Sinema leads Rep. Martha McSally 49 percent to 38 percent; she leads former state Sen. Kelli Ward 48 percent to 38 percent; and she leads former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio 57 percent to 32 percent. The Senate primary remains tight, with 30 percent of GOP voters backing McSally, 28 percent supporting Ward and 21 percent supporting
 Arpaio. ...
 
"In Florida's Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson had a narrow lead over Republican Gov. Rick Scott, 49 percent to 45 percent. Only 5 percent of voters said they remained undecided. ... In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown held a double-digit lead over Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, 51 percent to 38 percent." The Florida poll also breaks down the state's gubernatorial primary. Philip Levine is narrowly leading the Democratic primary with 19 percent to former Rep. Gwen Graham's 17 percent and Adam Putnam is leading Rep. Ron DeSantis 38 percent to 21 percent in the GOP primary.
 
- A new VA-10 poll from Monmouth University found incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) trailing her Democratic challenger Jennifer Wexton. Wexton leads Comstock 49 percent to 39 percent in the poll's "all potential voters" model, and has a similar lead in their "historical midterm model" and "turnout surge" model.
 
- A Virginia Senate poll from Quinnipiac, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is handily leading Republican Corey Stewart 54 percent to 36 percent.
 
BACK TO THE FUTURE - Senate passes bill that would create e-filing for campaign reports: The appropriations bill passed by the Senate on Monday night includes a provision requiring Senate candidates to file campaign finance disclosures online. It could easily get lost amid the legislative hustle and bustle: The bill passed by the Senate needs to be conferenced with a competing House bill before eventually getting re-passed and sent to the president's desk. But it was nonetheless a strong sign the chamber could be moving towards greater transparency. House candidates are already required to e-file their disclosures. See the bill here.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - The Senate Leadership Fund is reserving $24 million in fall airtime in battleground states. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "SLF will reserve $11.2 million worth of ads in Nevada, $10.5 million in Missouri and $2.3 million in North Dakota, three top-tier races as Republicans defend their 51-49 majority. The ads in Missouri and Nevada will run for seven weeks, while the ads in North Dakota will run for eight weeks."
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley's campaign is up with a new digital ad criticizing Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D-Mo.) use of a private plane. The ad has a conversation between an air traffic control tower and an airplane captain. "Air Claire things Missouri is just flyover country," the "captain" says in the ad.
 
- Freedom Partners Action Fund is up with a campaign in the Nevada gubernatorial election. They're launching two TV ads - one praising Republican Adam Laxalt's record and another bashing Democrat Steve Sisolak for being a "career politician" practicing "crony politics" - backed by a $1.5 million budget, which includes a digital component.
 
STAFF SHAKEUP - The NRCC split with Daria Grastara, who was the digital director for the NRCC's independent expenditure arm. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported that it was because of an interview: " [T]hree people briefed on the exit said it came after Grastara gave an online video interview to Campaigns and Elections, an insider journal that tracks the campaign industry. Grastara, these people said, didn't give her supervisors a heads-up before she gave the on-the-record interview."
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - The race to replace disgraced former Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) in Texas' 27 District is coming with a price tag of at least $157,000 - and local officials worry they don't have the money to foot the bill. POLITICO's Didi Martinez: "County officials say expenses associated with a special election are forcing them to reach into their contingency funds - accounts set up to cover government emergencies - or significantly downsize their operations." 
 
CODA - "Congratulations! I look forward to working together - there is so much good to do. A great and loving family will be coming to D.C." - President Donald Trump's tweet on his frenemy Mitt Romney's primary victory.
 
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