Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Kennedy’s retirement shakes up midterms — Moulton rolls out new endorsements — Unions lose out in key SCOTUS ruling
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Date: Thu, 28 Jun 2018 08:02:31 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 06/28/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
SUPREME COURT JUSTICE ANTHONY KENNEDY'S retirement throws another major campaign issue into play in an already volatile midterm, as all eyes now turn to control of the Senate.
 
The reactions are probably what you'd expect: Republicans want a speedy nomination for President Donald Trump's next pick, while Democrats demand Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wait until after the November elections. Here's a look at how Kennedy's retirement affects 2018 candidates from Campaign Pro's James Arkin.
 
Liberals at large quickly framed the upcoming vacancy as a battle over the fate of Roe v. Wade. "Many Senators claim to support and protect the fundamental rights of women, but with a Supreme Court vacancy, a women's right to control her own destiny hangs in the balance," pro-abortion group NARAL said following the announcement, which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer echoed in his own statement on the Senate floor.
 
But to their dismay, Democrats very well may not get the chance to make that case to voters. McConnell said "we will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy's successor this fall." POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Elana Schor report that vulnerable Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) may even peel off to ultimately support the president's pick, depending on who the nominee is - and remember that Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) all voted to approve Trump's first pick, Neil Gorsuch. The president hammered this point last night in a rally in Fargo, N.D.: "Heidi will vote no to any pick we make for the Supreme Court," he said. "And because of this she will be forced
 to vote yes. Who knows? And Justice Kennedy's retirement makes the issue of Senate control one of the vital issues of our time."
 
Conservatives have already kicked into hyperdrive to pressure those aforementioned vulnerable Senate Democrats to support Trump's pick. From Burgess: "The Judicial Crisis Network is beginning a seven-figure campaign on national cable and digital platforms intended to boost Trump's second court pick in as many years" with ads like this one, and Americans for Prosperity told Burgess that it "is prepared to commit $1 million or more if Trump selects a nominee in the mold of Gorsuch."
 
And while Democrats aren't exactly left high and dry (check out this now-prescient story from McClatchy's Lesley Clark last week about a liberal group targeting ads against a judge on the president's Supreme Court shortlist), they're left with few concrete options to slow any nomination down.
 
One final wildcard in the SCOTUS fight: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said he "would not say no" if the president nominated him to the Supreme Court, opening up another Senate seat.
 
MOULTON ANNOUNCES NEW ENDORSEMENTS - Rep. Seth Moulton's (D-Mass) Serve America PAC announced its latest round of endorsements, which hit several key swing districts. The list includes Josh Welle (NJ-04), MJ Hegar (TX-31), Abigail Spanberger (VA-07), Andy Kim (NJ-03), Abby Finkenauer (IA-01), Tom Malinowski (NJ-07), Aftab Pureval (OH-01) and Lauren Underwood (IL-14), along with four state candidates. Moulton previewed the announcement in a session with your host and a handful of other reporters, which also touched on his upcoming visits to battleground states and his frustration with Democratic party leadership.
 
Good Thursday morning. My POLITICO colleagues Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan have a good story on how Rep. Joe Crowley's shocking loss makes House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's path to the gavel even harder. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @MaggieSeverns, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman, and Playbook Florida author Marc Caputo, for a special Playbook Elections event in the battleground state of Florida to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. This event is part of the POLITICO-AARP "Deciders" series and will feature exclusive interviews with Nelson Diaz, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, David Richardson and Donna Shalala about their candidacies and campaign efforts to address the issues that matter most to voters. The event will take place on Friday, June 29, at InterContinental Miami. Doors will open at 8 a.m. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 131.
 
Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.
 
Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Delaware: July 10.
 
MORE FROM THE HIGH COURT - What turned into Wednesday's second most important news out of the Supreme Court, the justices ruled in a 5-4 decision that public-sector unions can't charge nonmembers mandatory fees. POLITICO's Ian Kullgren and Andrew Hanna break down the effect on organized labor: "President Donald Trump crowed about the victory on Twitter but misrepresented the purpose of the fees, claiming workers are now 'able to support a candidate of his or her choice without having those who control the Union deciding for them.' Under [a previous SCOTUS ruling], agency fees were already barred from being used to support political candidates." 
 
"What Trump did get right was that the decision was a 'big loss for the coffers of the Democrats.' Government unions account for about 6 percent of the money spent on Democratic candidates in federal elections, and that doesn't include significant in-kind contributions that these unions provide through such activities as phone banks, door-to-door leafleting, and driving voters to the polls on Election Day. The ruling means unions will have to redirect funds toward 'internal organizing' efforts to staunch the flow of workers who might want to leave the union."
 
- Conservative groups are already mobilizing to further weaken unions, Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns reported: "Groups including the Americans for Prosperity Foundation and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy will spend the coming months on a state-by-state blitz informing union members about their rights to leave the organizations, as labor groups work to keep members from fleeing their ranks. The Mackinac Center for Public Policy is operating a $10 million national campaign during 2018 to educate union employees about their 'opt out' rights, while AFP Foundation - part of the Koch network of political groups - has targeted New Jersey as its first state."
 
TWO MORE ELECTION CALLS - The candidates in two GOP runoffs in Oklahoma were called by the Associated Press on Wednesday. Former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and businessman Kevin Stitt advanced out of the gubernatorial primary, while former District Attorney Tim Harris and businessman Kevin Hern advanced out of the 1st District. The runoffs will be on Aug. 28.
 
NOT SO SUPER - The Democratic National Committee is closing in on a proposal that would cut the influence of superdelegates over the presidential nominating process. From POLITICO's David Siders: "The rule change, approved in concept by the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, would prohibit superdelegates from voting on the first presidential nominating ballot at a contested national convention. Only if a candidate had earned enough pledged delegates from state parties and caucuses to win the nomination would superdelegates be allowed to vote on the first ballot. The proposal, which is expected to be ratified by the committee in July, has been a priority of Sanders' supporters since the
 Vermont senator's defeat in a bitterly contested primary in 2016. If formally approved by the committee, the full DNC will take the measure up in August."
 
PAGING PELOSI - New York's upset victor Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seemed to hedge when asked if Pelosi should remain as the House Democratic leader. "I think it'd be inappropriate to commit to any one individual before we've even won back the House in November. Let's make sure we do that, and then we can have that conversation," she said in an interview with NPR's Steve Inskeep. But she did say she "looked forward" to new leadership.
 
WORRIED? ME? - New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is trying to downplay the strong showing of Democratic rebels in the state on Tuesday (which includes Ocasio-Cortez, who has endorsed and campaigned with Cuomo's primary rival, Cynthia Nixon). From POLITICO's Jimmy Vielkind: "'It's apples and oranges ... I think it's really more of a function of the specifics in that district, the issues, the dynamic, the demographics in that district,' said Cuomo, a Democrat seeking a third term. ... But even if Ocasio-Cortez's victory was but an isolated skirmish in the larger war over the locus of the Democratic Party, as its leaders contend, the same armies will be battling again later this year." 
 
NEW NJ-11 POLL - Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jay Webber are locked in a tight battle to replace retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) in a new Monmouth poll. In its "all potential voters" model, Sherill is up 40 percent to 38 percent. His lead grows slightly in its "historical midterm" model, 44 percent to 40 percent, and even slightly more in a "turnout surge" model, 45 percent to 39 percent. The poll took place from June 22-25 and polled 406 voters.
 
ON WISCONSIN - A massive factory from Foxconn - the company that manufactures iPhones, among other devices - will play a crucial role in the Wisconsin gubernatorial election. From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert: "With President Donald Trump due to attend Thursday's official groundbreaking in Racine County, Foxconn looms as an election wild card that could help seal GOP Gov. Scott Walker's re-election to a third term or badly complicate it. Right now, skeptics outnumber supporters in the Wisconsin electorate, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released last week: 46% of registered voters said the state is paying more than the plant is worth (the deal calls
 for up to $4.5 billion in state and local incentives); another 40% said the project is worth the cost. (Those numbers were slightly better for Foxconn than the ones in Marquette's February-March poll)." 
 
ENDORSEMENT WATCH - BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, announced a list of new endorsements: TJ Cox (CA-21), Katie Hill (CA-25), Jason Crow (CO-6), Brendan Kelly (IL-12), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), Sharice Davids (KS-03), Deb Haaland (NM-01), Aftab Pureval (OH-01), and Gina Ortiz Jones (TX-23).
 
CODA - "OMG! Just when you thought this week couldn't get more lit," Donald Trump Jr. reacting to Kennedy's retirement on Twitter.
 
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