Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: 5 things to watch in July — Anti-abortion Republicans going extinct in House — Trump to travel to Montana next week
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2018 08:03:14 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Zach Montellaro | 06/29/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
AS JUNE TURNS OVER INTO JULY, campaign season will be heating up (both literally and figuratively). For the last Score of June, here's five things I'm watching next month.
 
- Who will win the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff? Republican Lt. Gov Casey Cagle and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp will face off July 24, after neither secured 50 percent of the vote in May. The primary has been nasty, with Kemp accusing Cagle of being a "puppet" and "fighting for those that have the deep pockets" - a not-particularly veiled reference to a secret recording of Cagle talking about why he backed a controversial education bill. The primary will be fought over immigration and gun rights - Kemp ran an ad in which he said he'll "round up criminal illegals and take them home myself" in his truck - while Cagle has been touting his NRA endorsement. The winner will face off
 against Democrat Stacey Abrams, who is vying to be the first black woman governor in America, and whose turnout strategy will rely on rallying the Democratic base and turning out black voters.
 
- Can Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.) hold off a primary challenge? Roby was forced into a primary runoff against former Rep. Bobby Bright, the Democrat-turned-Republican, after Roby got 39 percent in the primary - well short of the majority threshold to win the nomination. Roby has trouble with the base over perceived disloyalty to President Donald Trump, after she distanced herself from the then-candidate in 2016 after the "Access Hollywood" tape. However, Roby received a huge boost from the president when he tweeted an endorsement. Meanwhile, she has been running ads attacking Bright's vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker when he was a congressional Democrat in 2009 - an especially tough hit in a
 Republican primary.
 
- The next big FEC filing deadline lands right in the middle of the month. Books will close tomorrow, June 30, and the filing deadline is July 15. Will House Democratic candidates continue to rake in big bucks? At the last big FEC filing deadline in April (which doesn't include pre-primary reports), 43 House Republicans were outraised by a challenger. Will disappointing Senate candidates up their game? Keep an eye on Score next week for a more detailed breakdown of who we're watching as reports come in.
 
- Will more outsider Democrats catch fire in primaries? After Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset of Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) in New York's 14th District, some Democrats are taking a second look at their primaries. Ayanna Pressley, who is challenging Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), said her campaign has seen a surge of activity since Tuesday night. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi downplayed Ocasio-Cortez' win, saying voters "made a choice in one district." Ocasio-Cortez herself said more races like hers could be coming up: "There are a lot of really exciting races with extremely similar dynamics as mine. It's not just one district."
 
- Will SCOTUS politics overwhelm the Senate? As I wrote in Score yesterday, Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy's retirement has shaken up the midterms. Just about every 2018 Senate incumbent and candidate weighed in, and the issue isn't going away anytime soon.
 
AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT TOMORROW'S SPECIAL! - Voters will head to the polls in Texas' 27th District on Saturday to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas). There are nine candidates on the ballot (including Michael Cloud, who won the GOP's nomination for the general election in November), and if none can get a majority, there will be a runoff to finish the remainder of Farenthold's term, according to The Texas Tribune.
 
Happy Friday! An all-time great name for the "leftist film production + post-capitalist entertainment coop" that filmed Ocasio-Cortez's viral announcement video: "Means of Production," according to the Detroit Free Press. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @MaggieSeverns, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 130. (Update for 6/29)
 
Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.
 
Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Delaware: July 10. - Louisiana: July 20.
 
ENDANGERED SPECIES - A rare breed of Republicans - those who support abortion rights - will finally go extinct in the House next year. With the retirements of Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) and no Republican running in a competitive race to take up that mantle, the House won't have any Republicans left who support abortion rights, POLITICO's Jennifer Haberkorn and Didi Martinez report. And anti-abortion Democrats are rare, too: "In the House, there are three remaining members who vote against abortion rights to varying degree: Reps. Dan Lipinski, Collin Peterson and Henry Cuellar. The elimination of the last House GOP members to support abortion rights stands to
 have far-reaching effects, ranging from intensifying the partisan battles around government spending to making it significantly harder for those who hold moderate positions on abortion to get elected to Congress - from either party." 
 
- Some political analysis from retiring Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.), who has a genuinely interesting Twitter account that I suggest you follow: "Leaving issue aside, just politics here - [Supreme Court] appt means abortion politics front & center. Not ideal for GOP branding in suburban swing House districts. Can't expect voters to distinguish Senate from House races - Eg., I regularly get asked why I voted for Devos, Pruitt, etc."
 
MORE RED TO BLUE ADDS - The DCCC added two more candidates to its "Red to Blue" program: Antonio Delgado in NY-19 and Betsy Rader in OH-14.
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president will travel to Montana on July 5, White House Deputy Press Secretary Lindsay Walters said in a gaggle on Air Force One. The Great Falls Tribune reported that "it was not immediately known whether he was coming to Great Falls," but "Great Falls officials were alerted recently about a potential visit by the president and local law enforcement planned to meet with federal officials soon to learn more."
 
HE'S BACK? - Former President Barack Obama could soon end his (mostly) silent streak. CNBC's Brian Schwartz reported that 44 could soon hit the campaign trail: "The most high-profile member of the Democratic Party is expected to hit the campaign trail for House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates running in the midterm elections while getting guidance from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter. The timeline is fluid but the former president is expected to start making an impact in September, according to two sources familiar with his team's plan. One source close to Obama said
 his team has not decided when the former president will start campaigning or which districts he will focus on."
 
DEBATE NIGHT - Florida's two GOP gubernatorial candidates, Rep. Ron DeSantis and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, met for a debate last night that was nationally televised on Fox News. It quickly turned nasty, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo report: "Casting DeSantis as a Washington creature who spends more time on Fox News than the state he now wants to lead has been a frequent narrative that Putnam has wanted to establish with voters. Putnam has been in Florida elected office since he was 22. DeSantis, a former JAG officer in the United States Navy, pivoted from that hit from Putnam by focusing on his military service and the fact that he has been away from even his own
 family in Florida."
 
- The Michigan gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, met for their last televised debate. The Detroit Free Press' Kathleen Gray: "Three of them - Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, Sen. Patrick Colbeck and Saginaw Township physician Jim Hines - often jabbed at Attorney General Bill Schuette, trying to chip away at the consistent lead in the polls he has enjoyed since getting into the race last year. ... Schuette, instead of turning on his GOP challengers, attacked the Democrats running for governor in virtually every answer and specifically named Gretchen Whitmer, the front-runner among Democrats in recent polls, saying they would raise taxes, take away guns from law-abiding citizens and close charter
 schools." 
 
BLUE TEAM BLUES - Coalitions of urban liberals and rural Democrats are getting harder and harder to hold together for the party in the Midwest. BuzzFeed News' Molly Hensley-Clancy takes a look at this struggle in Minnesota: "Unlike in many other parts of the Midwest, the Democratic Farmer-Labor Party, as Democrats are known in Minnesota, is still unusually strong in rural parts of the state. It has a long history of knitting together a coalition, however fragile, of city liberals, miners, environmentalists, and union workers. ... If Democrats can win here in Coleraine and other small towns, they could chart a path for a rural Democratic Party that has faded in many other rural Midwestern
 counties. One major problem, according to Cyndy Martin, the chair of the Itasca County Democrats: 'Nobody cares about us.'" 
 
- Plus, could Democrats still win statewide in places like Minnesota if they only focused on rural voters? An analysis from MinnPost's Greta Kaul said that they probably could - but that it'd be risky.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) launched a new statewide ad called "Not for Sale," touting his stance on public lands and featuring video of Tester speaking with hunters and fishermen.
 
BIG MONEY - Republican groups and campaigns have spent millions at "Trump Organization-managed and branded hotels, golf courses and restaurants" since he declared his candidacy, according to new data from ProPublica. Campaigns and political groups have spent over $15.6 million - with the lion's share coming from Trump's own presidential campaign.
 
STAFFING UP - Nick Bouknight will helm House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy's political operation, The Washington Examiner's David M. Drucker reported: "The California Republican has assumed more fundraising responsibilities since [Speaker Paul Ryan] Ryan in April announced plans to relinquish the gavel and retire from Congress at year's end. Hiring Bouknight as executive director, a role that has sat unfilled and mostly handled by senior McCarthy adviser Jeff Miller, beefs up the majority leader's political team at a critical period. ... In Bouknight, whose first day on the job is Monday, McCarthy is getting a seasoned operative with deep political and policy experience - on Capitol Hill
 and off."
 
CODA - "Harley Davidson, please build those beautiful motorcycles in the USA, please, OK? Don't get cute with us," President Donald Trump at the groundbreaking of a Foxconn plant in Wisconsin.
 
CORRECTION: Due to an editing error, the June 28 edition of Morning Score misidentified NARAL's position. NARAL is pro-abortion rights.
 
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