Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Breaking down the Arizona Senate race — Democratic group goes up with $5M to oppose Trump’s SCOTUS pick — SLF reserves $16M in fall airtime
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2018 08:02:59 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 07/03/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Wednesday, July 4, but will return Thursday, July 5. Enjoy the Fourth!
 
ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING RACES ON THE MAP is the battle in Arizona for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake. In one corner: Republican Rep. Martha McSally is trying to emerge from a brutal primary with two ultra conservative challengers, Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. In the other: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who faces no real primary challenge. 
 
McSally's primary opponents certainly aren't making it easy for her to ignore them. Campaign Pro's James Arkin traveled to Arizona last week to interview Ward and McSally. Ward relentlessly attacked McSally in her interview, as she has on the trail. "She claims to be this strong fighter pilot military woman," Ward told James at her campaign headquarters. "I thank her for her service. But if you're that strong, why are you afraid to stand up on a stage with your opponent and discuss the issues?"
 
McSally responded to those attacks in her interview ("fear is not in my lexicon"), despite her overall strategy to keep her eyes on the general election prize, James reports: "[S]he's aiming to avoid the very mistakes Ward is trying to goad her into by talking about the primary as little as possible. ... At the start of the interview, McSally pulled out her cellphone to show off an app counting down exactly 129 days, 10 hours and four minutes until polls close in November. Touting what she called her 'commanding lead' over Ward and Arpaio, McSally said she's not taking GOP primary voters for granted but that her focus is squarely on Sinema, whom she called 'the real threat' to the
 Republican majority."
 
Sinema's easy path out of the primary gives her a head start in both fundraising and messaging for the general. She is also making her mark by stepping out in front of most other Democratic Senate candidates and announcing that she won't back Sen. Chuck Schumer to remain on as Democratic party leader. She told POLITICO's Heather Caygle and Burgess Everett that "the Democratic leadership has failed Democrats across the country. ... I am unafraid to say what I believe about what I think our party needs to do and I think our party needs to grow and change." Schumer, who helped clear the field for Sinema's candidacy and whose IMPACT PAC gave $10,000 to her Senate campaign, did not comment on
 her plan to vote against him.
 
BACKUP FOR DEMOCRATS ON SCOTUS - A new group called Demand Justice is launching a $5 million counteroffensive to oppose President Donald Trump's eventual Supreme Court pick. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Demand Justice will invest in radio, TV, digital and voter mobilization, an official said. The campaign will focus on Maine and Alaska, home of moderate Senate Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, as well as Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia, where vulnerable Senate Democrats are facing reelection. TV ads will begin running in Maine and Alaska on Thursday focusing on abortion rights and Roe. v. Wade; radio ads will launch next week in those states."
 
- Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) said he would likely vote against Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Nelson, per the Tampa Bay Times: "Obviously I have to wait and see who the nominee is, but if, as President Trump has suggested, he's going to have a litmus test - and he said this over and over - on Roe v. Wade, then I'm not going to be voting for some justice who's going to overturn Roe v. Wade."
 
Good Tuesday morning. Not sure if there is something I want to own up to watching, but Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam popped up on an episode of "The Bachelorette" last night. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
You can email the rest of the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow us on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @MaggieSeverns, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 126.
 
Upcoming election dates - July 17: Alabama primary runoffs. - July 24: Georgia primary runoffs.
 
Upcoming primary filing deadlines - Delaware: July 10. - Louisiana: July 20.
 
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ON THE AIRWAVES - The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is up with an additional $16 million in fall television reservations. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "SLF will spend $7.1 million in Indiana, $4.2 million in Tennessee and $5 million in West Virginia, three top-tier races for Republicans as they defend their 51-49 majority. The ads in Indiana and Tennessee will run for six weeks after Labor Day, while the ads in West Virginia will run for seven weeks."
 
RUN LIKE A GIRL - In a political world still dominated by (mostly) older, white men, young women can face a unique set of struggles as they mount a campaign for office. NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben: "'I think when you're a young man and you're running for office, you're seen as this bright, energetic go-getter," [Deborah Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University] said. 'And I think when you're a young woman there's some stereotypes there about, well, 'You're new; you don't know enough yet.' That's one big drawback of being a young woman on the campaign trail. And there are several others: Voters worry whether mothers of young children, for example, can
 handle being in office and parenting at the same time. On the flip side, research has shown that voters fear that childless and unmarried candidates can't understand their lives."
 
- The wave of resistance-era Democrats are coming for Washington, the AP's Lisa Mascaro reports. One thing that differentiates them from older Democrats? The "younger generation of Democrats doesn't value fundraising the way leaders do. At a time when candidates like [Alexandria] Ocasio-Cortez can win a primary with a big social media presence and small-dollar donations, they don't need to cozy up to the party power structure."
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
HANGING ON - Rep. Mike Coffman remains one of the top targets for Democrats this cycle. The Republican has been able to hold onto his seat by positioning himself as a "renegade" in Colorado's 6th District, which has seen a drastic demographic shift. The New York Times' Jack Healy takes a look at Coffman's strength, and how Democrats hope to overwhelm him in an anti-Trump wave: "Activists are focusing not just on the district's Hispanic, African and Asian populations, but also on liberal white voters priced out of Denver who are following the expanding light-rail lines into Aurora and the other big-backyard suburbs that ring the city."
 
FRIENEMIES - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has traditionally been aligned with Republicans, is going on the offensive over Trump's tariffs. Reuters' Ginger Gibson: "The new campaign, detailed first to Reuters, is an aggressive effort by the business lobbying giant. Using a state-by-state analysis, it argues that Trump is risking a global trade war that will hit the wallets of U.S. consumers. 'The administration is threatening to undermine the economic progress it worked so hard to achieve,' said Chamber President Tom Donohue in a statement to Reuters. 'We should seek free and fair trade, but this is just not the way to do it.'"
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - A super PAC spent big money in Ohio to back GOP Rep. Jim Renacci's Ohio Senate campaign and skirted the rules to keep much of its operations secret. The Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay: "[Ohio First's] first expenditure came on April 1, when it began paying the Republican firm Majority Strategies to produce and place ads supporting Renacci's candidacy. The group spent more than $300,000 over the first three weeks of April, the period for which it was required to file a pre-primary disclosure report with the FEC. It spent another $160,000 supporting Renacci by early May. But Ohio First didn't file that pre-primary report, which was due on April 26. Neither did it file any
 disclosures of those independent expenditures, which were due within 24 hours of the expenditures being made. Instead, it waited to June 29 to alert regulators to its campaign activities." 
 
CODA - "I got endorsed by Emily's List as well. There's this woman in Milwaukee named Emily and she has a list," Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mahlon Mitchell joking to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about one of his primary opponents receiving the endorsement from EMILY's List.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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