Subject: Playbook PM: Dems hit 12-point margin on Quinnipiac generic ballot, and Economist sells CQ-Roll Call
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Jul 2018 11:13:04 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

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 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Akela Lacy and Eli Okun 
             
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BULLETIN ... QUINNIPIAC'S GENERIC BALLOT HAS DEMS UP 12 POINTS ... WAVE TERRITORY ... 

THE QUESTION: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?"

-- REPUBLICANS GETTING CLOBBERED ... 51% say Democrats, 39% say Republican. 

-- WOMEN FOR DEMOCRATS ... 57% of women say they'll vote for Democrats, 32% say they'll vote for Republicans ... 

VOTERS SAY NO TO IMPEACHMENT ... 39 PERCENT of voters say Democrats should impeach Trump, 55% say they shouldn't. The Q poll 

BREAKING -- WAPO's ANN MARIMOW, JONATHAN O'CONNELL and DAVID FAHRENTHOLD: "Federal judge allows emoluments case against Trump to proceed": WaPo

THE ECONOMIST SELLING CQ-ROLL CALL ... MICHAEL CALDERONE: "The Economist Group plans to sell CQ Roll Call to technology and data company FiscalNote, with the acquisition expected to close later this year, the companies announced Wednesday.

"Following the deal, the Economist Group -- publisher of The Economist magazine -- would take on an 18 percent equity stake in the combined company, and its chief executive, Chris Stibbs, would join FiscalNote's Board of Directors. Tim Hwang, the founder and CEO of FiscalNote, would continue to lead the company.

"The Economist Group, which purchased Capitol Hill-focused newspaper Roll Call in 1992, added CQ, the congressional news and policy publication, in 2009 in a deal reported to be around $100 million. No price was announced Wednesday." POLITICO

KENNEDY CENTER HONORS, via NYT's Sopan Deb: "Reba McEntire, Cher, Philip Glass and Wayne Shorter will receive this year's Kennedy Center Honors, the annual Washington distinction for artists who have made extraordinary contributions to culture.

"And in a first for the 41-year history of the awards, which have always gone to individuals, the Broadway musical 'Hamilton' will receive a special honor." NYT 

COMING ATTRACTIONS ... THE BUZZ in the House is that REP. MARK MEADOWS (R-N.C.) will offer a motion to impeach DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL ROD ROSENSTEIN tomorrow on the House floor. Meadows hasn't said what he'll do. Republicans can move to send that motion to committee, which will surely infuriate the Freedom Caucus. (Kyle Cheney and John Bresnahan wrote about this last night.)

-- BTW: This follows a long pattern of pre-August floor moves by the HFC. In 2015, Meadows dropped the motion to vacate, which would've forced a vote on whether to keep John Boehner as speaker. In 2016, they moved to force a vote on impeaching the IRS commissioner. In 2017, they pushed for an Obamacare repeal vote. 

JASON SEHER (@jhseher): "New, from @jimsciutto: A European diplomat who's been briefed by the State Department told CNN that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected [to] make a formal declaration the US will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia."

THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING THIS AFTERNOON with members of Congress is about trade and agricultural issues. It begins at 4 p.m. in the Cabinet room. Media plan: There will be pool spray .... 

-- THE ATTENDEES, all Republicans: Sens. John Boozman (Ark.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Steve Daines (Mont.), John Hoeven (N.D.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), James Lankford (Okla.), Pat Roberts (Kan.), Reps. Diane Black (Tenn.), Kevin Brady (Texas), Mike Conaway (Texas), Dan Newhouse (Wash.), Kristi Noem (S.D.) and Dave Reichert (Wash.).

HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES CHAIRMAN JEB HENSARLING to CNBC'S KAYLA TAUSCHE on the $12 billion government ag payment program: "It is a bail-out. It is a bail-out based upon these policies. And -- listen, I say this as one who grew up on a farm. My dad was a farmer. My granddad was a farmer. Believe it or not, you can make a living out of agriculture and not get taxpayer subsidies. You can do it. My family is proof of it. And when I look at a federal debt -- I -- I gotta tell you. You didn't ask the question. 

"But as I get ready to leave Congress, don't have too many regrets. But my inability to convince my colleagues of the peril of an unsustainable national debt, that -- that will be the top of my regrets. And every single bail-out ultimately is gonna be borne by our children and our grandchildren. Again, the answer is trade not aid. So yes, this is a bail-out. I'm opposed to it."

Good Wednesday afternoon. REMEMBERING GUY MOLINARI ... THE STATEN ISLAND ADVANCE: "Guy V. Molinari, a giant of Staten Island political and civic life, has died, the Advance has learned. Molinari, 89, a political force here for half a century, had been ill and housebound for several years.

"He was in NYU Medical Center where it is said he passed away. Molinari began his political career as a state assemblyman 1974 before winning Staten Island's congressional seat in 1980. He then ran for borough president and won in 1989. Along the way, he became an intimate of and advisor to stellar political figures like Vice President George H.W. Bush, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and U.S. Sen. John McCain." S.I. Advance
       
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ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 7:01 a.m.: "Every time I see a weak politician asking to stop Trade talks or the use of Tariffs to counter unfair Tariffs, I wonder, what can they be thinking? Are we just going to continue and let our farmers and country get ripped off? Lost $817 Billion on Trade last year. No weakness!"

... at 7:08 a.m.: "When you have people snipping at your heels during a negotiation, it will only take longer to make a deal, and the deal will never be as good as it could have been with unity. Negotiations are going really well, be cool. The end result will be worth it!"

... at 7:20 a.m.: "China is targeting our farmers, who they know I love & respect, as a way of getting me to continue allowing them to take advantage of the U.S. They are being vicious in what will be their failed attempt. We were being nice -- until now! China made $517 Billion on us last year."

... at 8:34 a.m.: "What kind of a lawyer would tape a client? So sad! Is this a first, never heard of it before? Why was the tape so abruptly terminated (cut) while I was presumably saying positive things? I hear there are other clients and many reporters that are taped - can this be so? Too bad!"

FLASHBACK -- WaPo's Marc Fisher on May 12, 2017: "Trump has a long history of secretly recording calls, according to former associates": WaPo

HMM -- CNN'S HADAS GOLD: "Trump slams his own administration's actions on Sinclair-Tribune deal": "Another government official appointed by President Donald Trump now finds himself in the all-too familiar position of having to defend his actions against his boss. ...

"Trump's tweet puts FCC chair Ajit Pai, a Republican appointed by Trump, in the awkward position of having to defend the commission and assert its position as an independent regulatory agency that is not directly accountable to the president or other elected officials. A spokesperson for the FCC and Pai did not respond to a request for comment, but one of its commissioners, Democrat Jessica Rosenworcel, replied to Trump's tweet on Tuesday with one word: 'Disagree.' Inside Sinclair, there were bewildered reactions to the president's defense of the company." CNN

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "China Targets Economy, Not Trump, With Weaker Yuan," by WSJ's Lingling Wei and Saumya Vaishampayan: "The slump in the yuan recently drew fresh ire from President Donald Trump, who in the past has accused China of manipulating its currency to gain a trading advantage by making its products cheaper. ... But the fast depreciation reflects bigger economic concerns among Chinese policy makers." WSJ

TRADE WARS -- "Trump pushes 25 percent auto tariff as top advisers scramble to stop him," by WaPo's Damian Paletta: "Several of President Trump's senior economic advisers believe he plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on close to $200 billion in foreign-made automobiles later this year, three people briefed on discussions said. ... 

"Trump has become increasingly defiant in his trade strategy, following his own instincts and intuition and eschewing advice from his inner circle. He has told advisers and Republicans to simply trust his business acumen." WaPo

-- "Japan and Germany Find Common Ground Opposing Trump on Trade," by WSJ's Peter Landers in Tokyo: "Japan and Germany said Wednesday they would step up their alliance to promote free trade and the Paris climate agreement, in a shot at the agenda pursued by the U.S. under President Donald Trump. ... 

"[Heiko] Maas's comments in a speech and on Twitter highlighted the movement among U.S. allies to patch up the post-World War II policies and institutions that have been undercut by Mr. Trump." WSJ

TOP-ED -- WAPO'S JOSH ROGIN in Aspen: "Russia fever is distracting the United States from the China threat": "The nation's top intelligence officials publicly declared last week that China is seeking to supplant the United States as the dominant world power and represents the number one economic and national security threat. But few took note: U.S. debate is focused so heavily on Russia at the moment that discussion over how to deal with China's rise has been muted." WaPo

DATA DU JOUR ... POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL ... STEVE SHEPARD: "Voters believe Russia more likely to meddle for GOP in midterms than Democrats": "President Donald Trump says he's 'very concerned' that Russia will meddle in this year's midterm elections - as part of an effort to help Democratic candidates. But a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows very few voters agree. 

"While a majority in the poll think Russia will try to influence the election - a combined 52 percent say it's at least somewhat likely - just 13 percent say Russia would be more likely to try to help Democrats win. Nearly four times as many voters, 47 percent, say Russia would be more likely to try to help Republicans.

"The poll was in the field July 19-23, after Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Finland." POLITICO

MORE ON MARIA BUTINA -- "Before her arrest as an alleged Russian agent, Maria Butina's proud defense of her homeland drew notice at American University," by WaPo's Rosalind Helderman, Moriah Balingit, Shane Harris and Tom Hamburger: "Butina's cellphone case was emblazoned with a famous photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin riding shirtless on a horse. 

"She would buy friends rounds of vodka at the Russia House, the Dupont Circle restaurant popular with the Russian diplomatic set, sometimes challenging male friends to down horseradish-infused shots. She bragged to classmates that she had worked for the Russian government.

"Butina's arrest last week on charges that she was acting as an unregistered Russian agent and allegations that she has ties to Russian intelligence rattled those who knew her at American University, where she spent two years in the global security program at the School of International Service. ... To others, however, her indictment on federal charges validated their own unsettling suspicions." WaPo

MCFAUL WATCH -- REBECCA MORIN: "McFaul to meet with U.S. officials about possible indictment from Russia": "Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul on Wednesday said he's planning on meeting with officials from the State Department, Justice Department and members of Congress following his visit with the National Security Council's director for Russia. 

"McFaul said on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' that he's meeting with additional officials to discuss 'the possibility that the Russian government will indictment and convict me and the other 11 U.S. government officials of a crime that, of course, we had nothing to do with.' He added that he is going to be sending the same message that he also sent to the White House: the possibility that Russia is going to indict Americans for a crime he said they didn't do is a matter of national security. POLITICO

-- MCFAUL: HELSINKI "WAS A DISASTER": The former U.S. ambassador to Russia on Tuesday night discussed last week's summit on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Watch

LUNCHTIME READ -- JULIA IOFFE in GQ, "The Spy Who Drove Me": "Last week, as America's top national security experts convened in Aspen, a strangely inquisitive Uber driver showed up, too. And caused a minor freak-out. Was the mystery woman some kind of covert agent-or simply a figment of these hyper-paranoid times?" GQ

MORE MICHAEL COHEN FALLOUT -- "Trump's Former Lawyer Michael Cohen Formed Delaware Company to Purchase Ex-Playboy Model's Story," by WSJ's Joe Palazzolo, Michael Rothfeld and Rebecca Ballhaus: WSJ

WAR REPORT -- "More than 180 dead in IS attacks on southern Syria" -- AFP: "A string of suicide blasts and raids claimed by the Islamic State group killed more than 180 people in southern Syria on Wednesday, in one of the jihadists' deadliest ever assaults in the country. ... 

"Syria's south is ostensibly protected from fighting by a ceasefire brokered by world powers last year, but violence has risen dramatically in recent weeks." AFP

-- "Two Americans, transferred to U.S. from Syria, will be tried in federal courts," by WaPo's Ellen Nakashima and Missy Ryan: "Two U.S. citizens, charged in separate cases with federal crimes, have been transferred from the custody of the Syrian Democratic Forces to the United States, the Justice Department announced Tuesday. 

"Ibraheem Izzy Musaibli, 28, of Dearborn, Mich., faces charges of providing and attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State. ... Samantha Elhassani, 32, of Elkhart, Ind., faces lesser charges of making false statements to the FBI. Elhassani, who also goes by Samantha Sally, was charged in the Northern District of Indiana.

"The charges ... reflect a willingness to use the criminal justice system to prosecute defendants captured on the battlefield overseas by an administration that has voiced skepticism about using the federal courts in foreign terrorism cases. The decision to prosecute the individuals in federal courts also is an indicator of widespread reluctance among government officials to add new cases to the military commissions used to try prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba." WaPo

BUZZFEED'S VERA BERGENGRUEN: "These Emails Show What Happens When The White House Keeps The Pentagon Out Of The Loop": "The emails document two days of the aftermath of an unusual, and seemingly sudden, statement released by the White House late on the night of June 26 last year. It warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that he and his military would 'pay a heavy price' if they carried out another chemical weapons attack. ... 

"[T]he channels at the Pentagon that usually would have coordinated such a release were in the dark. ... The communications black hole that resulted from the White House moving without coordinating its plans with the Defense Department would become a familiar pattern." BuzzFeed News
           
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BORDER TALES ... "Trump admin was warned a policy change could strengthen MS-13. They did it anyway," by CNN's Tal Kopan: "The Trump administration was warned that ending US protections for more than 300,000 Central Americans would strengthen and grow MS-13 and gangs that President Donald Trump has called 'animals,' according to an internal report obtained by CNN.

"But the administration went on to end the protections for citizens of El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua regardless. The warnings came from experts at the State Department in October 2017." CNN

-- "They Fought Terrorists, But Can't Get Visas Congress Promised: In the past year, there's been a sudden drop in arrivals under the special immigrant visa program for Afghan and Iraqi citizens," by The Atlantic's Priscilla Alvarez: "While Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border has sparked outrage across the country, far less attention has been paid to the current controversy surrounding visas allotted for the immigrants who've served the U.S. government.

"Two months into the Trump administration, then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson directed American embassies around the world to double down on visas and 'increase scrutiny of visa applicants for potential security and non-security ineligibilities.' Since then, there's been a stark decline in SIV arrivals. From January to June of 2017, 10,267 immigrants came to the U.S. on special immigrant visas. Over the same period in 2018, the number had fallen by more than half, to 4,166." The Atlantic

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION -- "Mike Isabella's Graffiato DC Appears to Have Closed," by Washingtonian's Anna Spiegel: Washingtonian

2018 WATCH -- "Republicans Largely Abandon Running on Trump's Tax Cuts," by The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick: "[T]he sweeping tax reform package passed at the end of 2017 has gone largely unmentioned by Republican outside groups funneling money into the race to retain the seat vacated by Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH). Two weeks out from an unexpectedly tight contest in Ohio's 12th Congressional District-which President Trump won by 11 points-Republican outside groups have, instead, turned to topics like 'open borders,' 'amnesty for illegals,' and the composition of Democratic leadership. ... 

"The ad spending patterns are the latest evidence that the tax bill has not been the electoral panacea that some Republicans predicted it would be." The Daily Beast

-- "Millennial women aren't that excited about 2018 midterms. This company is working to change that," by USA Today's Eliza Collins: "TheSkimm -- a nonpartisan membership company which targets millennial women ... wants to get 100,000 people, with a focus on millennial women, to vote in this year's midterms ... TheSkimm's polling showed that despite three-fourths of millennial women, 73 percent, being unhappy with the direction of the country, the majority weren't committed to voting. ... That bloc puts them behind all other demographics." USA Today

KENNEDY WATCH -- San Francisco Chronicle's Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross: "All attention at the Bohemian Club's annual redwood forest retreat in Sonoma County on Friday was on Camel's Camp, where retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy took center stage. ... And the response from the largely conservative group of 150 campers was rather tepid, we're told. ... 

"'There was a lot of talk that Kennedy sold out,' allegedly having agreed to retire from the bench in exchange for President Trump's picking his conservative former law clerk Brett Kavanaugh to succeed him.

"In contrast, over at the Owl's Nest encampment, we're told TV pundits Chris Matthews, David Gergen and David Brooks lit up the crowd, especially when Brooks lamented the 'loss of honesty, truth and civility' during the Trump era, calling it a 'disaster and threat to democracy.' 'The entire camp erupted into applause,' says our spy." San Francisco Chronicle

YIKES -- "Former Trump official: No one 'minding the store' at White House on cyberthreats," by Yahoo News' Michael Isikoff: "'On cyber, there is no clear person and or clear driver, and there is no clear muscle memory,' said Tom Bossert, who served as White House homeland security adviser until last April, in an interview with the Yahoo News podcast Skullduggery. ... 'And so, yes, if you're asking me do I have any concerns? The concern would be who's minding the store in the coordination and development ... of new and creative cyber policies and strategies.'" Yahoo News ... The podcast Skullduggery

MEDIAWATCH -- GERRY SHIH is WaPo's China correspondent in Beijing. He was most recently a reporter for the AP, and is a Reuters and NYT alum. The announcement

SPOTTED: Joe Hagin walking into Union Station this morning ... former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson last night at the quadrant bar and lounge of the Ritz Carlton, where he held a reunion with members of his DHS front office staff.

OUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED having dinner together last night at the Trump hotel: Donald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, Tony Sayegh, Sergio Gor, Andy Surabian, Alexandra Preate, Charlie Kirk and Gentry Collins.

-- SPOTTED at the Washington Kastles charity classic tennis tournament last night: participants Mark Ein, Peter Alexander, Bob Cusack, Michelle Kosinski, David Gregory, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Reps. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), Tom Rooney (R-Fla.), Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), former Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.); and spectators Andrea Mitchell, Patrick Steel, Craig Gordon, Michael Falcone, Brooke Lorenz, Ryan Williams, Tom Quinn, Larry Duncan, Robyn Bash and Jane Harman.

-- SPOTTED at Tuesday night's #Milwaukee2020 pop-up at the DNC to promote Milwaukee's bid for the 2020 convention: Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), Milwaukee 2020 bid chair Alex Lasry, senior staff for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.).

WEEKEND WEDDING -- HOYER ALUMNI: Amanda Ott, senior governmental and political outreach manager at the American Society of Anesthesiologists and an alum of Steny Hoyer's press staff and former Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) (who attended the wedding), married Kristopher Cate, an engineer at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab. The couple got married in Lockerbie, Scotland. Pic
               
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