Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Priorities USA’s big takeaways — O’Connor’s leadership comments kick up OH-12 storm — RGA lands on early messaging strategy
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2018 08:04:01 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 07/26/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
In a wide-ranging interview, Guy Cecil, the chairman of Democratic outside group Priorities USA, touched on the upcoming midterms and the state of the Democratic Party's infrastructure. "I think unlike the other side, the left does not have a history of consistent structural PACs or (c)(4)s, outside of issue PACs and candidate PACs," he said. "That's why we chose to exist." Here's three big takeaways from his interview:
 
- Democrats need to catch up digitally: "Any advantage that Democrats had online or digitally had not only been eviscerated, but in fact Republicans were doing a significantly better job" in 2016, he said. "Not just because they were smarter, but because Democrats were making bad decisions." He said in the top 17 House races in the 2016 cycle, Republicans spent 28 percent of their budget online, compared to just 4 percent for Democrats, with a similar trend in Senate races and on the presidential level. What's more, Cecil continued, top-level operatives have a "knowledge gap" about creating, buying and placing advertising online versus in traditional media: "Part of our existence is to
 push, encourage, incentivize, embarrass, shame progressives and Democratic campaigns into making better decisions around digital." 
 
Cecil said Priorities USA will spent about $75 million on "electoral and political activity" and about $50 million on digital advertising this cycle, with 100 percent of the group's political budget spent on digital. It has a creative team of about 45 people working in-house turning out content.
 
- The Priorities USA message revolves around health care, wages and jobs and will include a lot of positive ads: "One of the things that people expect is that all of our work is going to be anti-Trump work," he said. "In Alabama, 70 percent of our advertisements were positive and almost none of it talked about Donald Trump." He said you won't see a lot about the president's scandals because the messaging that has room for growth is "pocketbook issues," while Trump's troubles - like Russia and allegations of extramarital affairs and payouts - already saturate the news media and are not effective campaign issues.
 
- Stop looking at 2018 for 2020 hints: While big-name Democrats like Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) draw attention when they travel, it is hard to make a determination on who is the frontrunner for the 2020 presidential election. "We're in a name ID game more than we are what's going to happen in the election. I just think it's early," Cecil said. "Bill Clinton's name ID was pretty small in '91. ... Bernie Sanders [too]. All these people built name ID pretty quickly in the presidential."
 
Good Thursday morning. Some sad news: Staten Island political giant and former Rep. Guy Molinari died yesterday. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 103.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.
 
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SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - Democrat Danny O'Connor, who is running in the special election in Ohio's 12th District, has made his call for new leadership in Washington one of the planks of his campaign. He's run ads on that theme, and told POLITICO that he won't support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi because "we need changes in leadership on both sides of the aisle." But when pressed by MSNBC's Chris Matthews on what he'd do if he had to cast the decisive vote, he had a less definitive answer. The Columbus DIspatch's Darrel Rowland: "Questioned repeatedly by MSNBC Hardball host Chris Matthews if he would support Pelosi if a Democratic speakership depended on his vote, he finally said: 'I
 would support whoever the Democratic Party put forward'". 
 
In a statement, O'Connor said "no DC-style gotcha politics will change my resolve. I said on TV that we needed new leadership in Congress and I wouldn't vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker. I said it seven times, and I'll say it again - I'm not going to vote for her." His campaign said O'Connor responded that way because he believes Pelosi will not ultimately be the person the Democratic caucus chooses to put forward and that it is highly unlikely that he'd be the decisive vote for speaker. But some damage has already been done: The Congressional Leadership Fund went up with a new ad highlighting the Dispatch's headline and video of the interview as part of its existing $2 million buy.
 
- Another OH-12 ad trend: Republicans have been shying away from the recent tax bill in messaging in the district, The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick reported: "Republican outside groups have, instead, turned to topics like 'open borders,' 'amnesty for illegals,' and the composition of Democratic leadership. ... According to a Democratic strategist familiar with the ad buys, by July 30, the O'Connor campaign and the DCCC will have spent more going after [Republican Troy] Balderson on the tax bill than Republican groups have spent promoting it."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Republican gubernatorial candidates think they found their winning message in several races: Call the Democratic candidate a "radical." Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "That's the opening advertising theme in three key gubernatorial races across the country, where the Republican Governors Association and GOP nominees for governor are looking to cast opponents as too far left to win voter support - despite the difficult political environment for Republicans across the country. In Nevada, Attorney General Adam Laxalt's campaign has begun airing a new 30-second ad warning that 'the radical left has become unhinged.' The ad goes on to say Democratic nominee Steve Sisolak,
 Laxalt's opponent, has 'enabled the radical Occupy Las Vegas. Joined the fanatical resistance movement, and addressed an event that desecrated our American flag.'" Similar messages are airing in Georgia and Colorado.
 
THE RIGHT RESUME - Mayors are increasingly trying to make the jump from town hall to the governor's mansion. Governing's Louis Jacobson: "In 2018, a strikingly large number of current or former mayors have launched campaigns for governor: close to 20, from cities big and small. ... The new image of mayors as practical-minded technocrats has made them 'more appealing to a statewide electorate than in years past,' says [Marcia] Godwin of the University of La Verne. By contrast, 'state legislatures and Congress have low approval ratings, and members are often automatically judged as ideological partisans.'"
 
FORCE ON THE TRAIL - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez continues her tour across the country to pump up progressive candidates. She's hitting Michigan over the weekend, making stops with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who runs on a progressive platform that includes single-payer health care and the rejection of corporate cash for his campaign. And he thinks her surprise upset win has emboldened Democrats with a similar message. "I think Alexandria has validated our approach to politics," El-Sayed said in an interview with Score.
 
El-Sayed said that since he received Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement, he's seen a bump in fundraising (his campaign declined to share specific numbers; pre-primary campaign finance disclosures are due on Friday) and online engagement. He added that he expects more people at his events this weekend.
 
- Not everything is going to plan for the progressive wing, at least in the House, but Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and others are trying to change that. HuffPost's Kevin Robillard: "The establishment is winning more Democratic primaries than progressives are, and the type of earth-shattering upsets that signified the Republicans' tea party wing was becoming an electoral force in 2010 have been few and far between. With just 19 states still left to hold their primaries, opportunities to shape the Democratic Party are slipping away."
 
2020 WATCH - Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's continued evolution from a relatively moderate upstate New York representative to a senator adopting more liberal policies has drawn more attention as we inch closer to 2020. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher: "'Labels are hard,' Ms. Gillibrand said in a wide-ranging interview about her agenda. 'But I'm comfortable with 'populist.' Her leftward thrust on economics - coming on the heels of her progression from a first-term congresswoman with an A rating from the National Rifle Association and guns under her bed to a gun-free senator with an F rating - is likely to resurrect questions about where her convictions end and political convenience begins.
 ... Ms. Gillibrand, unsurprisingly, views her economic platform in more generous terms, with roots in President Franklin D. Roosevelt's 'second Bill of Rights' and Martin Luther King Jr.'s call for full employment. 'It's certainly a bolder idea, and it's larger in scale, than all the things I've worked on in the last 10 years," she said."
 
- In the "it's never too early" category, Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) is up with a television ad for his presidential campaign in Iowa focused on automation and how it can create "more jobs than it displaces, if we start preparing for it." His campaign said it will run in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Last week, One Nation abruptly canceled a West Virginia buy, saying they were just reorganizing. They're back on air in the state now, Campaign Pro's James Arkin reported: "One Nation originally booked $752,000 for a July ad going after [Sen. Joe] Manchin as weak on immigration, but abruptly halted the buy last week. The full remainder of that initial amount will run in the state for eight days starting Friday. The group is also booking $2.4 million worth of ads in West Virginia to run in August."
 
- End Citizens United, a pro-campaign finance reform group, is going up with $4 million worth of ads next week boosting Democrats in Montana and Nevada Senate races. The group will spend $1.5 million on TV from July 31 through Sept. 3 in Montana boosting Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, and another $300,000 on digital ads and $200,000 in direct mail. In Nevada, it will spend $1.7 million on TV from Aug. 1-17 aimed against Republican Sen. Dean Heller. The group will add $350,000 in digital spending for the month. The early buys are meant to push campaign finance as a key issue in these two battleground races.
 
POLL TEASE - NBC News released poll results in three battleground states in the Midwest late Wednesday. The data showed Trump's approval rating in the 30s in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin - brutal numbers for the president, albeit in states where he out-performed his pre-2016 election polls significantly. The survey also showed that on generic congressional ballots, Democrats are ahead between 8-12 points in the three states. NBC News said it would release statewide election numbers today, meaning we have to wait to find out how heavy an anchor Trump is on GOP candidates for governor and Senate, and where key primaries in those states stand with just weeks left.
 
CREATIVE ACCOUNTING - Indiana Republican Mike Braun, who's challenging Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, is the latest candidate to use funds raised to retire past campaign debts for his general election campaign. The Indianapolis Business Journal's Lindsey Erdody: "Braun indeed raised nearly $1.5 million since the primary, but in addition to that, he loaned the campaign about $350,000. From April 19 to June 30 - the dates of the latest campaign finance report - he has loaned the campaign nearly $1 million. ... About $270,000 of the donations Braun received from individuals and political action committees in this time period were intended to help him recoup the money he loaned himself in the
 primary. ... The campaign reported making four loan repayments to Braun totaling about $93,000 between May 29 and June 25. Within several days of each payment, he personally issued his campaign new loans for the same amounts."
 
CORRECTION: An earlier version of Score misidentified Lucy McBath's opponent in the GA-06 Democratic runoff. It was Kevin Abel.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sounds like he is as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rockers," Democrat Kim Olson, who is running for Texas commissioner of agriculture, on her Republican opponent not wanting to debate to The Dallas Morning News.
 
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