Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: House leadership hits the recess fundraising circuit — The next primaries to watch — Trump, RNC pump cash into midterms
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2018 08:03:50 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 07/27/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
THE CASH DASH - The House is gone for August recess, so party leaders, aspiring or otherwise, are hitting the fundraising circuit. POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle: "[House Majority Leader Kevin] McCarthy, who wants to replace [Paul] Ryan as speaker in January, will do more than 30 events in a dozen states during the recess, according to his aides. His itinerary includes stops in Ohio, Tennessee, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, New York and Maine, as well as a visit to the Pacific Northwest. ...
 
"Ryan, who is a retiring, will spend part of the month in Wisconsin. His home-state primary is on Aug. 14, and while Ryan is not on the ballot, he's doing events with the Badger State GOP delegation, said a Ryan aide. Ryan will then travel to Illinois, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado for fundraisers for Republican incumbents. More stops may be added to Ryan's itinerary.
 
"[House Majority Whip Steve] Scalise will be holding more than 30 fundraisers and political events during the recess. The Louisiana Republican will be traveling throughout the Southeast, in addition to events in Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, New York and Colorado. ...
 
"[House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi will kick off the recess with a swing through the Southwest, appearing with Democratic candidates in Texas, Arizona and New Mexico. Pelosi will travel the country for the rest of the month, with stops in Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Boston, New York, Chicago, Houston, Las Vegas, San Diego, Indianapolis and San Francisco. The California Democrat will also host her annual donor retreat in Napa in mid-August".
 
- And keep in mind, leadership has already brought in massive hauls already. Bres and Heather reported that McCarthy's fundraising network brought in $12 million in the second quarter. Ryan's joint fundraising committee raised $10 million in the second quarter and my compatriots at Playbook report that Pelosi "raised $20.7 million for Democrats in the second quarter, including $19.9 million to the DCCC." The usual caveat: different members have different ways of counting what they "raised" when they make these announcements. But any way you cut it, that's some big piles of dough.
 
THE NEW LOOK DEMS - Some of the more liberal Democratic primary hopefuls remain emboldened by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset victory in June. But across the 19 states that will hold primaries in the next six weeks, House candidates looking to run in her image face some challenges. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: The remaining primaries "include a handful of progressive-versus-moderate contests as well as some insurgent campaigns that divide more along local politics than party-wide ideological lines. ... Ocasio-Cortez 'showed that the energy is with the base, even though entrenched officials are still supporting the cookie-cutter, hyper-poll-tested talking-points candidates, when all the
 voters - especially Democratic primary voters - want is authenticity,' said Matt Heinz, a Democrat locked in a tough battleground primary with former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.). ...
 
"And critically, candidates and some operatives said that even if left-wing candidates don't win their primaries, their campaigns have shaded the party's platform bluer in 2018, pushing the eventual nominees to adopt policies like Medicare for all." Elena's districts to watch include MA-07, KS-03, AZ-02, FL-05 and MI-13.
 
- One positive datapoint for that wing of the party: Democrat Brent Welder's (KS-03) campaign said Thursday night that he has raised just under $110,000 since a rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ocasio-Cortez last Friday.
 
Good Friday morning. Did this week seem slow to anyone else? Let's enjoy it while it lasts. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Playbook On The Road: Where are you reading Playbook this summer? Tweet pictures of you and others reading Playbook on your summer getaways to #PlaybookLoyal or email them to [email-masked] for the chance to be featured in Playbook on Friday each week this summer. Learn more at politico.com/playbookontheroad.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 102.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.
 
AND DON'T FORGET TRUMP - The president's campaign and the RNC is also kicking money down ballot. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "The president has signed off on plans for his reelection campaign to funnel contributions to 100 Republican candidates running in House and Senate races, the campaign said Thursday. ... And during a meeting with fellow GOP lawmakers on Thursday morning, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced that Trump was slated to appear at a September event benefiting House Republicans, who are trying to protect their 23-seat majority. Additionally, as part of the financial decision, the Republican National Committee, which Trump has been aggressively raising money
 for, will transfer $4 million apiece to the National Republican Congressional Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committee."
 
- Some context: The DCCC almost doubled up the NRCC in fundraising in June, while the DSCC just narrowly beat out the NRSC.
 
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin's pre-primary FEC report will show she raised nearly $1.2 million from July 1-25 alone, according to a source close to her campaign.
 
HACK ATTACK - Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) is the first publicly revealed target of Russian hackers in the 2018 cycle. The Daily Beast's Andrew Desiderio and Kevin Poulsen: "The Russian intelligence agency behind the 2016 election cyberattacks targeted Sen. Claire McCaskill as she began her 2018 re-election campaign in earnest, a Daily Beast forensic analysis reveals. ... The attempt against McCaskill's office was a variant of the password-stealing technique used by Russia's so-called 'Fancy Bear' hackers against Clinton's campaign chairman, John Podesta, in 2016."
 
"The hackers sent forged notification emails to Senate targets claiming the target's Microsoft Exchange password had expired, and instructing them to change it. If the target clicked on the link, he or she was taken to a convincing replica of the U.S. Senate's Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) login page, a single sign-on point for e-mail and other services. "
 
- She said in a statement that the attack was unsuccessful: "While this attack was not successful, it is outrageous that they think they can get away with this. I will not be intimidated. I've said it before and I will say it again: Putin is a thug and a bully."
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - After some foot dragging, Ohio Gov. John Kasich endorsed Republican Troy Balderson in the special election in OH-12, the district Kasich used to represent. "For over three decades the voters of Ohio's 12th Congressional District have voted for common-sense, pragmatic conservative representation," Kasich said in a statement. "I believe Troy Balderson will continue that tradition." Balderson is a bit of a rarity, picking up an endorsement from both Kasich and President Donald Trump.
 
HANGING ON - Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, an architect of the 2010 GOP takeover of the House, has a fight on his hands to keep his seat. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: Sessions, "a longtime party leader and former House GOP campaign chief, is confronting a treacherous political landscape back at home - a well-funded Democratic opponent with a boffo resume, a rapidly diversifying and more liberal district, and, perhaps most critically, a constituency of well-educated and upper-income suburban voters who increasingly are turning on the president.
 
"His predicament underscores the grave danger confronting Republicans this fall. As the party braces for an electoral drubbing that threatens to wipe out the majority they won eight years ago, the list of incumbents under duress is growing ever longer - and even powerful lawmakers like Sessions, a sharp-elbowed tactician who hasn't faced a serious reelection contest in over a decade, are suddenly trying to survive a Trump-fueled bloodbath. In Texas alone, Democrats are targeting three Republican incumbents who've been in office for over a decade."
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic outside group, will spend at least $20 million to "mobilize voters in the Republican-leaning states," The New York Times' Alex Burns reported: "The initiative by Senate Majority PAC - which will run through an affiliated nonprofit group, Majority Forward - will span more than a dozen states where Senate seats are at stake. But it is to focus on four states above all: Missouri and Indiana, where endangered Democrats are seeking re-election, and Arizona and Tennessee, where strong Democratic challengers are running for open seats currently held by Republicans."
 
PAC TO THE RESCUE - A super PAC backing GOP Rep. Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race has gotten some national help. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Arizona businessman Michael Rutherford was 'contacted by [donor] Jim Click and Karl Rove for a conference call' this spring and told, along with a group of other donors to McSally, that any donation he made to the DefendArizona super PAC would be matched by a group of wealthy supporters. Rove, who also fundraises for the network of outside spending groups aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, 'was in charge' of the call, Rutherford said." The super PAC said it has lined up $5 million to back up McSally.
 
POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - Republican gubernatorial candidates are slipping while Democratic senators look strong in the Midwest in a new NBC News/Marist poll. Campaign Pro's James Arkin and Daniel Strauss: "The poll showed Wisconsin state education superintendent Tony Evers, the Democratic primary front-runner, taking 54 percent to [GOP Gov. Scott] Walker's 41 percent in a head-to-head match-up. ... NBC and Marist also surveyed the governor's races in Michigan and Minnesota, with the results showing Democrats in commanding positions in both open races. ...
 
"Democrats also performed well on the Senate ballot in all three states polled. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin held a substantial lead over both potential Republican challengers. She led businessman Kevin Nicholson by 15 percentage points among registered voters, and led state Sen. Leah Vukmir by 17 percentage points. Nicholson and Vukmir were neck and neck in the Republican primary, according to the poll, which echoed recent findings from Marquette University and other polling outfits." Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) also led their challengers.
 
THE SHOW-ME STATE - A headline that Missouri Republican Josh Hawley just can't seem to shake: Is he doing enough in the race? POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt picked up on this in May, and now a story from KCUR's Aviva Okeson-Haberman strikes a similar tune: "[T]o county GOP vice chair Jennifer Finch, it's part of a larger trend of the establishment's handpicked candidate passing on local events. And it's something she and others say is making it hard for Hawley to earn the trust of voters ahead of the Aug. 7 primary. 'We have a little game statewide called 'Where's Josh'? Kind of like Where's Waldo. Josh is only showing up to the things that are pre-scripted and pre-approved,' Finch said." 
 
FUTURE ENDEAVORS - New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has never been particularly subtle about his desire to shape the liberal movement beyond the borders of the five boroughs. He's taking his latest step, setting up his own federal leadership PAC. POLITICO New York's Laura Nahmias and Gloria Pazmino: "The new political action committee, called 'Fairness PAC,' will pay for both the mayor's travel and that of his wife Chirlane McCray, and will give direct support to both federal and state candidates, de Blasio told POLITICO in an interview Wednesday. The mayor, who has struggled to define his national profile since he was elected, said Wednesday he felt it was his 'obligation' to support
 national Democratic candidates in their efforts to retake the House, Senate and New York state Senate". 
 
SPEED BUMP - The West Virginia secretary of state denied Don Blankenship's attempt to get on the ballot as a Senate candidate for the Constitution Party. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Secretary of State, Mac Warner, said Blankenship's bid would violate the state's 'sore loser law' preventing a candidate who lost a primary from running again in the general election. Blankenship ran in the May GOP primary but finished a distant third, and submitted signatures earlier this week to run in November as the Constitution Party candidate. ... The decision is expected to kick off a legal battle over the law itself as Blankenship seeks to continue his campaign."
 
GERRYMANDERED - Emails from a federal lawsuit over Michigan's congressional map suggest districts were drawn "to maintain an advantage over Democrats, despite years of claims the lines are drawn without political bias," Bridge's Joel Kurth and Lindsay VanHulle reported: "The lawsuit references private emails that allegedly show one Republican aide saying a Macomb County district is shaped like 'it's giving the finger to (Democratic U.S. Rep.) sandy levin. I love it.' Another email from a GOP staffer was said to brag about cramming 'Dem garbage' into four southeast Michigan congressional districts. In a third email, a longtime Michigan Chamber of Commerce executive predicts the maps will
 keep Republicans in power for years - and implies the 4th Congressional District in the central Lower Peninsula was drawn to the wishes of Dave Camp, a longtime Republican congressman from Midland who has since retired."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It dawns on me: They don't think I'm Beto, they think I'm Joe Kennedy, or at least some Kennedy." - Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) on running into a group at a bar in Cambridge, Mass., in 2012 who wanted to take pictures with him, to Town & Country.
 
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