Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Inside Paul Manafort’s lobbying world
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2018 04:06:06 -0600
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Presented by the PepsiCo Foundation: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington             Jul 31, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
THE TRUTH ABOUT PAUL MANAFORT ... Paul Manafort allegedly evaded taxes. That's what he is going on trial for beginning today. But his situation is instructive in thinking about the current corporate climate in D.C.

-- BEING A LOBBYIST AIN'T WHAT IT USED TO BE. Blue chip clients -- Fortune 500 companies, and the like -- used to shell out massive retainers to lobbyists for basic government-relations work. No longer. So many lobbyists who want to keep up their high-flying lifestyle or make their corporate overlords happy have gone overseas to represent despots and strongmen who are willing to pay piles of dough because they have massive reputational problems and have a hard time finding someone willing to take up their cause in the U.S. 

FOREIGN CLIENTS are often willing to pay ten times the fees for a sliver of the work. That's created a skewed incentive structure that encourages operatives to take work from unsavory figures.

-- WHILE UNSAVORY, IT'S ATTRACTIVE WORK. Countries fly American lobbyists all over the world in first class. They pay huge sums. They treat these influence peddlers like royalty. Tony Podesta saw himself as a man about the globe. Who wouldn't like that?

-- BUT ... THE BAD APPLES GET CAUGHT. Manafort had it good. Sixty-million bones from Ukraine is a lot of coin! Jack Abramoff got caught. He pleaded guilty to mail fraud, for trying to bribe public officials and, oh yeah, tax evasion. Some say that's what's about to happen to Manafort.

WHAT TO EXPECT TODAY -- DARREN SAMUELSOHN filled us in on the state of play: There is "one final pre-trial hearing at 9 a.m. in Alexandria where Judge Ellis is going to work through some late debate over some of the evidence both sides want shown during the case. Then it's time to pick the jury, with voir dire starting at 10 a.m. There are about 60 potential jurors still in the mix, with Ellis planning to tap 16 people - including four alternates -- for the trial."

HOW WE GOT HERE -- "How Alan Friedman, Italy's Professional American, Put Paul Manafort in Jail," by NYT's Jason Horowitz in Florence, Italy: NYT

IN RECENT DAYS, the general consensus among Republican operatives and aides seems to have shifted, and most people we talk to say that the GOP will lose the House, if the election were held today. Of course, the election is three months from now, but the political picture has darkened for the GOP. 

-- WSJ ED BOARD: "Does President Trump care if Republicans lose the House of Representatives this November? If that seems like an odd question, consider that Mr. Trump is running a campaign strategy that puts the House at maximum risk while focusing on the Senate. The latest evidence is Mr. Trump's threat to shut down the government in September if he doesn't get money for his border wall.

"It's always risky to use the word 'strategy' about Mr. Trump because he's so impulsive and capricious. Only last week GOP leaders thought they had his agreement to delay a wall-funding brawl until after the election. Then on Sunday Mr. Trump tweeted that 'I would be willing to 'shut down' government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall!'" WSJ

AS IF ON CUE ... "'It's a significant shift in our thinking': Business takes fresh look at Democrats," by Lorraine Woellert and Marianne LeVine: "Business groups, at war with President Donald Trump over trade and immigration, say they're taking steps to rebuild the political center - including taking fresh looks at moderate Democrats." POLITICO

NEW BOB WOODWARD BOOK ... "In a new book, Bob Woodward plans to reveal the 'harrowing life' inside Donald Trump's White House," by WaPo's Manuel Roig-Franzia: "In the worldwide capital of leaks and anonymous dishing that is Washington, secrets can be almost impossible to keep. But somehow over the past 19 months, the fact that America's most famous investigative journalist was quietly chipping away at a book that delves into the dysfunctions of President Trump's White House remained largely unknown. On Monday night, that veil of secrecy [was] lifted when Simon & Schuster [announced] that it will publish 'Fear: Trump in the White House' by Bob Woodward on Sept. 11 ...

"The hush-hush project derives its title from an offhand remark that then-candidate Trump made in an interview with Woodward and Post political reporter Robert Costa in April 2016. Costa asked Trump whether he agreed with a statement by then-President Barack Obama, who had said in an Atlantic magazine interview that 'real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence.' At first Trump seemed to agree, saying: 'Well, I think there's a certain truth to that. ... Real power is through respect.' But then he added a personal twist: 'Real power is, I don't even want to use the word: "Fear."' WaPo
       
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HOW ABOUT THAT ... WAPO'S ELLEN NAKASHIMA and JOBY WARRICK: "U.S. spy agencies: North Korea is working on new missiles": "U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country's first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.

"Newly obtained evidence, including satellite photos taken in recent weeks, indicates that work is underway on at least one and possibly two liquid-fueled ICBMs at a large research facility in Sanumdong, on the outskirts of Pyongyang, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe classified intelligence.

"The findings are the latest to show ongoing activity inside North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities at a time when the country's leaders are engaged in arms talks with the United States. The new intelligence does not suggest an expansion of North Korea's capabilities but shows that work on advanced weapons is continuing weeks after President Trump declared in a Twitter posting that Pyongyang was 'no longer a Nuclear Threat.'" WaPo

-- IRAN TO TRUMP: NAH, WE'RE GOOD ... NYT: "Trump Says He Would Meet With Iranian Leader, but Iran Rules It Out," by Mike Shear and Rick Gladstone: "Bahram Qassemi, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, made that clear on Monday during a news conference in Tehran.

"'With current America and these policies, there will definitely not be the possibility of dialogue and engagement, and the United States has shown that it is totally unreliable,' Mr. Qassemi said at the news conference, which was carried by Iran's state news media. Given the American repudiation of the nuclear agreement and the restored sanctions, Mr. Qassemi said, 'I think there are no conditions for such a discussion at all.'" NYT

TAX REFORM 2.0? -- "Trump Administration Mulls a Unilateral Tax Cut for the Rich," by NYT's Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley: "The Trump administration is considering bypassing Congress to grant a $100 billion tax cut mainly to the wealthy, a legally tenuous maneuver that would cut capital gains taxation and fulfill a long-held ambition of many investors and conservatives. 

"Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit meeting in Argentina this month that his department was studying whether it could use its regulatory powers to allow Americans to account for inflation in determining capital gains tax liabilities. The Treasury Department could change the definition of 'cost' for calculating capital gains, allowing taxpayers to adjust the initial value of an asset, such as a home or a share of stock, for inflation when it sells." NYT

PLAYBOOK SCOOP ... THE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND, the House GOP leadership aligned super PAC, has reserved $2 million in television advertising in Chicago to boost GOP REP. PETER ROSKAM. Republicans were down on Roskam a few months ago, so this might be a sign that Roskam's political standing is improving. CLF is making additional reservations throughout the week.

2018 WATCH -- JONATHAN MARTIN in Sarasota, Florida, "In Florida, Not All Politics Are Local, as Trump Shapes Governor's Race": "Beyond Mr. Trump's kingmaking capacity, the rapidly shifting fortunes in the governor's race also tell a larger and perhaps more consequential story about the role of Fox News in shaping the president's views, and thereby today's Republican politics and about the diminished role of local media, especially in a transient state like Florida, and certainly in a primary. [Ron] DeSantis's rise also reflects the broader nationalization of conservative politics, in which a willingness to hurl rhetorical lightning bolts at the left, the media and special counsel Robert S.
 Mueller can override local credentials, local endorsements and preparedness for a state-based job." NYT

-- MARC CAPUTO and NANCY COOK: "Trump asserts dominance over Florida GOP with rally for DeSantis":  POLITICO

-- @ChuckTodd: "Actual ad for the GOP frontrunner for FLGOV. This goes beyond doubling down on Trump. Need a whole new set of words to describe this strategy." DeSantis will spend about $3 million on it over the next two weeks. The ad

-- AMERICA FIRST ACTION says it's beginning to spend money in Ohio's 12th district on behalf of Troy Balderson, the GOP nominee. They say they'll spend $200,000, including a robocall by Donald Trump Jr., where he hits Democrat Danny O'Connor for saying "he would vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker." The election is Aug. 7. CLF has spent $2.4 million, and the NRCC has spent $957,680 for this special election. 

SEXUAL HARASSMENT FILES -- "FEMA personnel chief harassed women, hired some as possible sexual partners for male employees, agency's leader says," by WaPo's Lisa Rein: "The personnel chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency - who resigned just weeks ago - is under investigation after being accused of creating an atmosphere of widespread sexual harassment over years in which women were hired as possible sexual partners for male employees, the agency's leader said Monday. The alleged harassment and other misconduct, revealed through a preliminary seven-month internal investigation, was a 'systemic problem going on for years,' said FEMA Administrator William 'Brock' Long.

"Some of the behavior could rise to the level of criminal activity, he said. ... Online records show Coleman was a senior executive who was paid an annual salary of $177,150. ... Starting in 2015, investigators said, Coleman hired many men who were friends and college fraternity brothers and women he met at bars and on online dating sites. He then promoted some of them to roles throughout the agency without going through proper federal hiring channels." WaPo

SCOTUS WATCH -- "Manchin sits with Kavanaugh, but wants another meeting," by Elana Schor: "After meeting with Brett Kavanaugh on Monday, Sen. Joe Manchin said that he likely would seek a second sitdown after the Supreme Court nominee's confirmation hearings - thus extending the amount of time the West Virginia Democrat will remain undecided even as pressure on him ramps up.

"Manchin spent two hours in what he repeatedly called a 'very productive' meeting with Kavanaugh, becoming the first Senate Democrat to greet President Donald Trump's Supreme Court pick on the Hill.

"But the intense pro-Kavanaugh push Manchin faces from conservative groups and GOP challenger Patrick Morrisey didn't appear to affect him, a sign that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) private entreaties for vulnerable red-state Democrats to keep mum on their stance may be paying off." POLITICO
       
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THE JUICE ... 

-- TOM COLLAMORE is exiting the U.S. Chamber of Commerce after 11 years as the trade group's top communications chief and executive vice president. The veteran Republican operative -- who served as assistant commerce secretary during the George H.W. Bush administration and for 15 years as vice president of corporate public affairs at Altria Group -- plans to start his own strategic consulting firm. He will continue to serve as a counselor to Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue for the rest of the year.

-- MARK PUTNAM has cut a new 30-second spot called "Cliff" for Forward Future USA. The ad has a Ford Explorer careening off a cliff, as the narrator reads a list of things that the chattering class has said the president would do and not do. It's aimed at turning Obama-Trump voters. The 30-second spot

TRUMP'S TUESDAY -- The president is signing the "Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act" into law in the morning. He will have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. In the afternoon, Trump will fly to Florida where he will hold a workforce development event at Tampa Bay Technical High School. He will then head to the Florida State Fairgrounds Expo Hall where he will hold a political rally before returning to Washington.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump pumps his fist as Robert Wilkie, accompanied by his wife Julia, is sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs on Monday. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo
   
ISAAC DOVERE: "Tom Steyer's $110 million plan to redefine the Democrats": "Tom Steyer has set plans to spend at least $110 million in 2018, making the billionaire investor the largest single source of campaign cash on the left and placing him on a path to create a parallel party infrastructure with polling, analytics and staffing capabilities that stand to shape and define the issues the party runs on in November.

"Steyer is building out an operation that's bigger than anyone other than the Koch Brothers - and the billionaire and his aides believe the reservoir of non-traditional voters he's already activated could become the overriding factor in House and other races across the country. Yet Steyer's oversized role also stands to position him squarely against Democratic Party leadership, which has shown little appetite this fall for pursuing one of his signature causes: impeachment." POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Brexit Plans Raise Fears of Food Shortages and Jammed Ports," by NYT's Stephen Castle in London: "Trucks parked along freeways or stuck in gridlocked ports. Food disappearing from supermarket shelves and stocks of medicines under strain. The military on standby, ready to step in to avert crisis. For a British public that has often tuned out from the mind-numbing complexities of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, recent government statements, amplified by raucous newspaper headlines, have finally become comprehensible - and alarming.

"For days, talk has swirled about government preparations for a disruptive departure from the European Union without any agreement - a scenario that could mean new border checks, log-jammed ports, marooned trucks, and food, drugs and other essential supplies drying up. The speculation was prompted by a government promise to prepare for all eventualities, including the extreme one of a 'no deal' departure from the European Union, or Brexit." NYT

         
AT THE PENTAGON -- "Pentagon To Start Creating Space Force - Even Before Congress Approves It," by Defense One's Marcus Weisgerber: "The U.S. Defense Department this week will take the first steps to create the Space Force, a new branch of the military ordered up by President Trump but not yet fully backed by Congress." Defense One

MEDIAWATCH -- "CBS to Appoint Outside Law Firm to Handle Probe Into Moonves Allegations," by WSJ's Joe Flint and Keach Hagey: "CBS Corp. said its board of directors was in the process of selecting an outside law firm to handle an independent investigation into allegations Chief Executive Leslie Moonves sexually harassed women. No other actions were taken on the matter at the Monday board meeting." WSJ

-- "Why Dean Baquet Skipped The New York Times' Meeting With Trump," by BuzzFeed's Steven Perlberg: "The reason, Baquet told BuzzFeed News, is a matter of personal, not newsroom, policy. 'As a rule I don't go off the record with high-ranking officials, particularly the president,' Baquet said in an email. 'As the person overseeing coverage, I don't think officials should be able to tell me things that I can't publish. And I don't want to be courted or wooed.' ...

"Baquet has waffled on his rule in the past. He attended a meeting between then-candidate Trump and the paper's editorial board in January 2016. ... Baquet now says that he shouldn't have gone to the editorial board meeting. 'I couldn't resist,' he said. 'I'm still a reporter and I wanted to get a look at him. But I kept wanting to write about the things he said, and I couldn't. It was a mistake that proved my point.'" BuzzFeed
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: David Cameron and his family with former Secretary of State John Kerry alum Drew O'Brien on the field before a Red Sox game at Fenway Park.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: former Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick, now a managing director of the Double Impact business at Bain Capital is 62. How he got his start in politics: "By reading, watching, voting, litigating civil rights cases, and serving once as a federal appointee - and through all of that being both impressed by the creativity I saw and frustrated by the timidity and lack of conviction." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Bill Bennett is 75 ... Mark Cuban, a loyal Playbooker, is 6-0 ... libertarian VP nominee and former Mass. Gov. William Weld is 73 (hat tip: David Andelman, his Harvard classmate) ... Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) is 71 ... Politico's Bill Duryea, Walter Dantzlerward and Shayla Birath ... Haywood Liggett of the WH office of digital strategies ... Nelson Garcia ... Katie Longo of West Virginia University ... Kouri C. Marshall ... Jessica Lautz ... John Parks, celebrating with Maggie and Bailey (h/t Jon Haber) ... Audrey Sheppard ... Tiffany Shackleford ... Sean Eldridge, founder and president of Stand Up America, is 32 ... Cory Bythrow ... Elizabeth Wurtzel ... Dan Schnur ... Ben
 Ostrower ... Sam Frizell is 28 ... Dale Emmons ... Sara Steele ... Danielle Meister Cohen, senior manager of corporate comms at Samsung Electronics America ... Edelman's Brian McNeill ... U.S. Chamber's Lexi Pursley, a Trump WH alum ...

... former Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.), the Sunshine State's agriculture commissioner now running for Florida governor (h/t Miguel Solis) ... James Floyd in Sen. Durbin's office is 27 ... Terry Schilling ...Micah Spangler ... AP's Elena Becatoros ... Matthew Ballard, director at Burson-Marsteller ... John Weber is 23 ... Fount Holland, Oklahoma political guru (h/t Nick Everhart) ... Gray Televison's Kevin Latek (h/t Tammy Haddad) ... Michael Mershon (h/t Kelley McCormick) ... Matt Hutchison, SVP of corp comms at Forbes ... Scott Evertz ... Maryam Rashid ... CJ Pearson ... WNYC's Yasmeen Khan ... attorney Ron Kuby ... Todd Novascone, principal at Ogilvy GR, is 46 ... Rachel Wilensky ... Lauren
 Russell ... Royce Reding... Walter Cross ... Elizabeth Schneider ... Dan McFaul is 46 ... Ed Laskowski ... Michael Gerard Nixon is 59 ... Cara Rinkoff ... Denis Dison is 51 ... Anne Dimmette Bell ... Marjorie Clifton ... Richard Rosenstein ... Zo&eacute; Reyners ... Jay Dunn ... Margi Weiss ... David Goldenberg (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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