Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Steyer storms the midterms — Trump jumps into OH-12 — Will a government shutdown shake up the election?
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 01 Aug 2018 08:03:01 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/01/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - For nearly a decade, Democrats have had no answer to the influential Koch network. But Tom Steyer is poised to change that - even if he runs headlong into party leaders in the process. POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere on Steyer's latest moves: "Tom Steyer has set plans to spend at least $110 million in 2018, making the billionaire investor the largest single source of campaign cash on the left and placing him on a path to create a parallel party infrastructure with polling, analytics and staffing capabilities that stand to shape and define the issues the party runs on in November. ...
 
"Steyer will put his cash toward building out NextGen America and Need to Impeach, his two growing political organizations, as well as funding clean-energy ballot initiatives in Arizona and Nevada. Steyer has already doubled his initial $20 million investment in Need to Impeach to $40 million and has not ruled out adding more. Steyer has also already dropped over $5 million into his For Our Future PAC, and he is expecting more outlays on behalf of individual candidates."
 
- Two of Steyer's top lieutenants - Heather Hargreaves, executive director of NextGen America, and Kevin Mack, lead strategist at Need to Impeach - stopped by POLITICO HQ to preview the rollout and deliver a fairly pointed message to Democratic leadership. Steyer's campaign is a shot across the bow of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats who have so far been unwilling to touch impeachment with a 10-foot pole. In Mack's view, impeachment can be a factor that "incites the base" and gets them to the polls. Fundamentally, he says that Democratic leaders' unwillingness to talk impeachment actually hurts them among the Democratic base, leading voters to say, "If we can't trust
 you in Congress to do the right thing on impeachment, how can we trust you on health care, or gun control, or immigration or anything else?" Mack said that NTI will announce further plans backing candidates on Aug. 13.
 
Meanwhile, Hargreaves said that Democrats' stance on impeachment is not a litmus test for support. Instead, Steyerworld posited a-rising-tide-lifts-all-boats theory, of sorts: Talk about impeachment can increase Democratic turnout overall. "Impeachment is an aspirational goal," Mack said. "There's a legal process that needs to take place ... but there's also the aspirational goal of fighting [President Donald] Trump and Trumpism. ... [Voters] are thirsting for action." Mack said 67 percent of NTI voters are infrequent midterm voters, so talking about impeachment has a dual purpose of both driving those voters to the polls and pushing Democratic politicians to actually talk about impeachment.
 
Good Wednesday morning. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, because I am a fan of the New York Mets, the most hapless organization in America. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 97.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - With the GOP growing increasingly concerned about the special election in Ohio's 12th District, Trump will rally in the state Saturday to try to boost Republican Troy Balderson past Democrat Danny O'Connor. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Elena Schneider: "President Donald Trump will travel to Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Republican special election candidate Troy Balderson, according to a senior party official - a move that comes amid rising GOP fears about the race. ...
 
"While Balderson has led by a small margin in private polling, Republicans worry that an energized Democratic base, declining support among independents and O'Connor's big fundraising lead puts the seat at risk. The significance of the race is magnified by the fact that it's the final special election before the midterms. Both campaigns acknowledged that the results will 'definitely set the tone heading into November,' Balderson said in an interview with POLITICO over the weekend."
 
- The Congressional Leadership Fund went up with a new ad in the special election in Ohio's 12th District featuring GOP Gov. John Kasich highlighting his support for Balderson. "Troy shares our common-sense values on important issues that face us today," Kasich says in the ad. "Troy Balderson has my vote. He should have your vote, too." The ad is part of CLF's $2 million buy in the district.
 
- O'Connor went up with a new ad, saying, "We need new leadership in both parties," and calls for cutting taxes "for working people." The DCCC went up with two ads targeting Balderson - one television ad and one radio ad.
 
- A poll from the Democratic group End Citizens United conducted by PPP has O'Connor trailing Balderson, 48 percent to 44 percent.
 
TRUMP TAKES FLORIDA - Trump rallied in Tampa last night, urging voters to back Rep. Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial primary, as some of rival Adam Putnam's backers considered jumping ship. POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: "Trump's strong backing for DeSantis in the Republican primary has helped the three-term congressman overcome what was once a double-digit lead for Putnam, who has also enjoyed a large money lead. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, donors who have long been with Putnam were meeting with the DeSantis campaign, the first signs of a coming peace treaty between Florida's big political donors and DeSantis if he wins the nomination. 'In Tampa today, we met with multiple people who
 have been supporter of Putnam who now know the race was over,' said a GOP consultant affiliated with the DeSantis campaign. 
 
"When pressed for specific names, the person responded, 'all the smart ones.' The timing and venue of the event betrayed the cutthroat nature of the race: The event was held on Putnam's birthday at the Florida Fairgrounds, a facility where Putnam sits on the board of directors."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn released the first TV ad of her Senate campaign against former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. The ad begins running Wednesday, the day before the Senate primary. It features Blackburn speaking direct to camera: "As I went to Congress, somebody said, 'Well, do you go to fit in or do you go to stand out?' I'm in this fight, and I am in this fight so that we can win. And the we is the people, the constitution, the country."
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC is releasing a new ad attacking Republican Josh Hawley in Missouri over a lawsuit he joined as attorney general against the Affordable Care Act. The ad says Hawley took "huge contributions from the insurance industry" while filing the lawsuit "stripping away protections for 2.5 million Missourians with pre-existing conditions." SMP is spending $1.7 million on the ad. 
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE... - The Koch network and Trump technically both play for the same GOP team. But that uneasy alliance has imploded over the past 48 hours. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns from Colorado Springs, Colo.: "The massive political network - big enough and wealthy enough to rival the Republican Party itself - is betting that by throwing its weight around and threatening GOP candidates' access to the group's vaults of cash for television ads and door-to-door canvassing, it can convince Republicans to buck Trump on his protectionist trade and restrictive immigration policies, among a range of other issues.
 
"Trump fired back Tuesday, calling the group a 'total joke in Republican circles.' 'I never sought their support because I don't need their money or bad ideas,' Trump tweeted. 'Their network is highly overrated, I have beaten them at every turn.'"
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new Nevada Senate poll from Suffolk University has GOP Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen locked in a tight battle. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Heller leads Rosen, 41 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll, which was conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal. Eight percent of voters are undecided. President Trump's favorability in Nevada is slightly underwater, with 49 percent of voters viewing him unfavorably, compared to 46 percent who view him favorably."
 
SHUTDOWN? WHAT SHUTDOWN? - How close will Trump drive the government to a shutdown over border wall funding, with an election looming? The AP's Catherine Lucey and Zeke Miller: "Despite Trump's recent public threats that he saw 'no problem' in shutting down the government to secure backing for one of his key campaign promises, two officials said Trump recognized the political cost of a shutdown before the November elections and had assured staff he wouldn't provoke a fiscal crisis until after Election Day. A congressional aide said the White House had sent a similar message to Capitol Hill amid widespread anxiety about a potential shutdown as Republicans face tough reelection fights."
 
- But shortly after the AP story posted, the president took to his favorite medium to toy some more with the idea of a shutdown: "I don't care what the political ramifications are, our immigration laws and border security have been a complete and total disaster for decades, and there is no way that the Democrats will allow it to be fixed without a Government Shutdown," he tweeted. "A Government Shutdown is a very small price to pay for a safe and Prosperous America!"
 
MISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN - Facebook says it detected a coordinated political influence campaign of fake accounts and pages targeted around the midterms. The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos and Kevin Roose: "In a series of briefings on Capitol Hill this week and a public post on Tuesday, the company told lawmakers that it had detected and removed 32 pages and accounts connected to the influence campaign on Facebook and Instagram as part of its investigations into election interference. It publicly said it had been unable to tie the accounts to Russia, whose Internet Research Agency was at the center of an indictment earlier this year for interfering in the 2016 election, but company officials
 told Capitol Hill that Russia was possibly involved, according to two officials briefed on the matter."
 
SITTING IT OUT - The president has not hesitated to weigh in on a laundry list of races. But he's sitting out a risky Tennessee gubernatorial primary. POLITICO's Daniel Strauss and Christopher Cadelago: "Rep. Diane Black is blanketing the air with TV ads claiming she has the White House imprimatur as the true Trump candidate in the Tennessee governor's race. There's just one problem: President Donald Trump has not actually endorsed her and has no plans to get involved in this Thursday's primary, multiple Republicans in Tennessee and Washington with knowledge of the race told POLITICO.
 
"Word that Trump is staying out of the race is viewed as a potentially fatal blow to the Black campaign and enhances the prospects for businessmen Bill Lee and Randy Boyd in a divided primary for the Republican nomination to succeed term-limited Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam. Black has, however, received the endorsement of Vice President Mike Pence."
 
- But if you've seen one Trump endorsement, you've seen basically all of them. The Washington Post's Philip Bump analyzed the president's Twitter seal of approvals: "In four out of five tweets of endorsement, Trump has mentioned that the candidate will be tough on crime. In three-quarters, that they will be in support of strong borders. In six out of 10, that the candidates support our military, though they explicitly support veterans only a bit less than half the time. In some cases, Trump just offered an endorsement without explaining why."
 
WISCONSIN TEA LEAVES - Eight Democrats are vying for the chance to challenge Gov. Scott Walker, but for a sign on who the state Republican Party is keeping an eye on, look at its new slate of radio ads attacking four candidates: Tony Evers (ad), Matt Flynn (ad), Mahlon Mitchell (ad) and Kelda Roys (ad). A source familiar with Republicans' strategy in the state called this crop of Democratic candidates "self-selecting" front-runners, because these are the Democrats who have shown the ability to go up on television.
 
- And in the GOP Senate primary, Republican Leah Vukmir may have hit a speedbump. Breitbart, which has been going after her all primary, dug up a video of Vukmir bashing Trump during the 2016 presidential primaries, saying, "He's offensive to everyone." Vukmir's camp pointed out that she cut a radio ad for Trump during his campaign.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He lit himself on fire. ... You know there's an old saying, 'A leader without followers is just a man on a walk.' I don't understand the path that he chose." - McSally on GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, whom she is hoping to replace, at an Arizona Republic debate.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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