Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Previewing tonight’s Tennessee primaries — Obama endorses dozens of midterm candidates — Balderson and O’Connor neck and neck in new poll
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Date: Thu, 02 Aug 2018 08:02:11 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/02/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
If you woke up feeling a little uneasy this morning, it could be because it's an election day on a Thursday. Thanks to the state constitution, Tennessee holds its primaries on Thursdays. The state's librarian and archivist told POLITICO back in 2014 that "I can't find any rationale for why Thursday was in there," but we are stuck with the practice. There's a handful of interesting primaries tonight you should be watching (polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern/7 p.m. Central; you can check results here).
 
- The Republican gubernatorial primary is today's main event, with four major candidates vying for the nomination: Rep. Diane Black, Randy Boyd, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee. The race has turned into a contest on who is the biggest ally of President Donald Trump - most notably with ads from Black featuring Trump thanking her. But the president has opted to not endorse in the gubernatorial primary, as my POLITICO colleagues Daniel Strauss and Christopher Cadelago reported earlier this week, and that could be a major problem for Black. Public polling in the race has been sparse, but a poll released Monday showed Lee narrowly leading the pack with 26 percent. On the Democratic side, former
 Nashville Mayor Karl Dean is expected to prevail in his primary, which also includes state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh.
 
- The Senate primaries will have considerably less drama. Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen and GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn are both facing nominal opposition and are expected to cruise to their parties' nominations.
 
- There's also a handful of congressional GOP primaries, all in safe Republican districts, that are worth watching. In the 2nd District, GOP Rep. John Duncan is retiring. He endorsed state Rep. Jimmy Matlock, who is trying to head off a challenge from Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, Jason Emert and Ashley Nickloes. The 6th District (Black's seat that she's giving up to run for governor) features a battle between two self-funders: John Rose and Bob Corlew. Corlew loaned his campaign $1.5 million, while Rose's campaign has $2.25 million in loans on the books. State Rep. Judd Matheny is also running in the district, having brought in over $264,000 in contributions.
 
In the 7th District (Blackburn's seat), Republican state Sen. Mark Green is running unopposed in the primary to replace her. And in the 8th District, incumbent Rep. David Kustoff is trying to head off a challenge from another big self-funder, George Flinn Jr. Flinn finished second to Kustoff in the 2016 open-seat primary, coming within about five points of the nomination. Flinn also failed to dethrone Sen. Lamar Alexander in a 2014 primary battle. This cycle, Flinn loaned his campaign over $3.1 million. Trump has endorsed Kustoff on Twitter.
 
Good Thursday morning. Don't forget about the third parties! The New York Times' Liam Stack has a dispatch from the Green Party's annual convention. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 96.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries and OH-12 special election. - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries
 
HE'S BACK - Former President Barack Obama took his most public step yet into the midterm elections, endorsing 81 candidates from across the country, up and down the ballot. Details from me (and the full list of candidates): "The list includes a delegation of California Democrats looking to unseat House Republicans in districts that swung towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. Also on the list is Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who is challenging Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller and represents the Democrats' best chance of picking up a Senate seat in the 2018 midterms. Gubernatorial candidates hoping to flip red seats to blue also made the cut, including Stacey Abrams in Georgia, J.B. Pritzker in Illinois
 and Richard Cordray in Ohio. Overall, the list includes one Senate candidate, Rosen, five gubernatorial candidates, 22 House candidates and 13 candidates for lower, statewide offices. The rest are candidates for state legislatures." The announcement also said the president will "campaign in several states this fall" and issue more endorsements ahead of election day.
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - The closing arguments in the special election in Ohio's 12th District have become a tale of two national party leaders. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider from Columbus, Ohio: "The president's decision this week to inject himself into a district - split between rural voters who support him and well-educated suburbanites who are trending away from him - effectively puts him on the ballot alongside GOP hopeful Troy Balderson. And Republicans are going all out to bind Democrat Danny O'Connor to Pelosi, their favorite liberal bogeywoman. The increasingly national complexion of the race has heightened interest in a contest that has tightened in the last month. As the final
 special House election ahead of the November midterms, the contest is also seen as one of the few indicators of a potential Democratic wave."
 
- To that point, the Congressional Leadership Fund released an ad tying O'Connor to Pelosi. The ad is part of the CLF's previously announced $2.6 million buy.
 
- The race is neck and neck in a new Monmouth University poll. In a model of all potential voters, Balderson is up 44 percent to 43 percent. A typical midterm model has Balderson up 46 percent to O'Connor's 45 percent, with 11 percent undecided. A low turnout model has Balderson leading 49 percent to 44 percent, while a Democratic surge model has O'Connor leading 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll was in the field from July 26-31, with 512 voters surveyed.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - GOP Sen. Ted Cruz has a 6-point lead over Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke in a new Quinnipiac University poll. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Cruz had 49 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent for O'Rourke, with just 6 percent undecided, according to the new poll. That's a slightly tighter race than May, when Quinnipiac showed Cruz with an 11 percent lead in the race. Both polls were of registered voters; Quinnipiac typically moves to a more restrictive likely-voter screen later in the summer."
 
MORE RED TO BLUE ADDS - The DCCC added four women candidates to its Red to Blue program, its list of the most competitive battleground districts. Two of the new candidates, Kara Eastman in NE-02 and Dana Balter in NY-24, defeated DCCC-backed candidates in their respective primaries. The group also added GA-06's Lucy McBath and TX-31's MJ Hegar.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Democratic leadership-aligned Senate Majority PAC will spend $17 million in August on television ads. More from James: "The ads will run in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia, four states with Democratic incumbents - as well as Nevada and Tennessee, two states where Democrats are on offense. The group did not provide a breakdown of how much spending will go to each race. The new spending is in addition to the $80 million SMP reserved in nine states for fall TV advertising. That reservation will include all six states from the August reservation, plus Arizona, Florida and Montana."
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Priorities USA and SMP are launching a set of digital ads attacking Missouri Republican Josh Hawley by arguing that campaign contributions have influenced his actions as state attorney general. They're spending $950,000 on the ads, which will run on Facebook, YouTube, Pandora, Spotify and Google. View examples of the ad here and here.
 
- The Wesleyan Media project found that Trump is mentioned in just under 25 percent of the ads it tracked (broadcast TV ads in House and Senate races since June 5). Out of the over 183,000 ads tracked, 14.7 percent have a positive mention of the president and 9.7 percent have a negative mention of him. And another finding: "An astounding 63 percent of pro-Democratic ads for U.S. House discuss healthcare, and 16 percent contain an explicit statement about being in favor of the Affordable Care Act." The top mention in Republican House ads? Thirty-five percent are pro-Trump, and 27 percent mention taxes - though not necessarily the GOP's 2017 tax cuts, HR 1 (115).
 
- The Judicial Crisis Network released two new ads to push for Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court. The first ad features one of his former clerks, Kathryn Cherry (who is a Democrat), that will air on MSNBC, and the second ad features author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance. Both are part of previously announced buys.
 
INTRAPARTY FIGHT - In Massachusetts, young Democrats are agitating for change, and they're willing to topple longtime Democratic officials to get it. POLITICO's Stephanie Murray: "[Democratic Rep. Michael] Capuano's predicament has captured national attention, in part because of the racial dimension to the challenge from Ayanna Pressley, the first woman of color elected to the Boston City Council. There isn't much daylight between the two progressives on the issues, but she has said 'my lens is different,' a reference to her background as a woman of color, her experience with sexual trauma, and the fact she is the child and spouse of previously incarcerated individuals. In a
 majority-minority congressional district, that argument is getting some traction against an incumbent who is a white male nearly a quarter-century older than the 44-year-old Pressley."
 
2020 WATCH - Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is receiving blowback from some prominent Democratic donors, including George Soros, for her leading role in calling for former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) to resign after several allegations of sexual misconduct. HuffPost's Amanda Terkel: "Soros recently said he wasn't sure whom he was supporting for 2020, but that it absolutely wouldn't be Gillibrand. He accused her of going after Franken, 'whom I admire,' to 'improve her chances' for president. 'If standing up for women who have been wronged makes George Soros mad, that's on him,' Gillibrand said in a statement to HuffPost. 'But I won't hesitate to always do what I think is right. For nearly a
 year, we have seen countless acts of courage as women and men have spoken hard truths about sexual assault and sexual harassment and demanded accountability.' ...
 
"Many ['elite Clinton donors contacted by HuffPost] said that either they were unhappy with Gillibrand or knew plenty of people who were. The 2020 race is still years away, but as donors start to shop around, her comments on Clinton and Franken could be a factor. 'I viewed it as self-serving, as opportunistic ― unforgivable in my view,' said Rosalind Fink, a New York donor."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - WAY, WAY DOWN BALLOT - The Republican State Leadership Committee is rolling out its list of 18 state-level races to watch this cycle across the country. 
 
LET'S TALK TAXES - One district where the race is all about the tax bill? New Jersey's 11th. Roll Call's Simone Path&eacute;: "No one in this affluent district disagrees that taxes are a big deal here. Both [Republican Jay] Webber and Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill will tell you that economic security is the biggest issue in the race. But when it comes to the tax law Republicans pushed through late last year, and whether it improves or imperils voters' financial well-being, opinions - and the numbers used to back them up - differ greatly. ...
 
"'No district benefited more from that tax plan than this one,' Webber said in an interview last weekend. 'This tax bill is worse for New Jersey than any state in the country,' Sherrill said several hours later, addressing volunteers at her Morristown office."
 
VOTING ON VOTING RIGHTS - A popular theme for ballot initiatives this cycle? Voting rights. The Wall Street Journal's Jon Kamp: "Seven states have ballot measures this year involving election rules, such as ID requirements and easier registration, the National Conference of State Legislatures said. Maine voters already approved a measure, and Michigan could join the fray if a campaign clears a signature hurdle. Together, that equals the number of similar ballot measures from 2014 and 2016 combined, according to NCSL."
 
VEEP ON THE TRAIL - Pence will campaign with Republican Pete Stauber in Minnesota's 8th District next Wednesday, per an announcement from Stauber's campaign.
 
STAFFING UP - Andrew Bates has been promoted at American Bridge to communications director for House campaigns. He was previously deputy comms director in the Trump war room.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I will say a lot of people - good people - you know, would ask me in the nicest of ways, 'Could we do it after the election?'" Trump on the timing of a potential government shutdown fight to radio host Rush Limbaugh, via POLITICO.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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