Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Giffords hopes gun control can win over disaffected Republicans — Trump rallies for Balderson in OH-12 as GOP frets about seat — CLF sitting out Comstock’s race (so far)
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 06 Aug 2018 08:03:48 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/06/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
Gun control has long been an area of caution in Democratic politics. But Giffords, the gun control organization formed by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband Mark Kelly, thinks the issue will work to Democrats' advantage in key battlegrounds this year.
 
"It is going to be one of the top issues that Democrats are going to use to define their Republican opponents," Peter Ambler, the executive director of Giffords, said in an interview with Morning Score. "Both on the wrong side of history and caught up in the morass of special interests that voters are frustrated with."
 
Democrats have been more willing to pick up gun control in their messaging, even in battleground House districts. A study from Wesleyan University found that gun policy was the fifth-most talked-about issue in ads supporting Democratic House candidates from June 5 to July 29, trailing health care and anti-President Donald Trump messages, while a Reuters analysis found that about two-thirds of the DCCC's "Red-to-Blue" Democrats "supported gun restrictions in their official platforms.
 
Giffords sees a path to victory for Democrats by peeling off voters in more affluent, diverse suburban districts that have historically voted for the GOP. Democrats can reach out to "disaffected Republicans ... who may like their tax cuts but are deeply, deeply uncomfortable with the direction of the Republican party with Trump, as it's aligned with the NRA," Ambler said.
 
The races Giffords is targeting reflect this dynamic, including trying to oust GOP incumbents such as Reps. Mimi Walters in California and Jason Lewis in Minnesota. Giffords calls it the "Kelly Ayotte strategy," referring to the narrow defeat of the then-Republican senator from New Hampshire in 2016: The plan is to make gun control a major issue in four or five of the most competitive of those races by investing more heavily later on in the cycle.
 
The group expects gun control to remain a plank of Democratic politics in the future. "The days of John Kerry dressing up in a duck-hunting outfit so he can go prove to people that he had certain bonafides on guns [are over]," Ambler said of 2020, referring to Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. "You're just not going to see Democrats thinking they have to do that sort of thing anymore."
 
Good Monday morning. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
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Days until the 2018 election: 92.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries and OH-12 special election. - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries.
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - Trump threw himself into the special election in Ohio's 12th District, rallying for Republican Troy Balderson on Saturday. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt from Lewis Center, Ohio: "During an hour-long rally in a sweltering high school auditorium, the president repeatedly lavished praise on Balderson, a state legislator who suddenly finds himself in a neck-and-neck contest for a House seat that Republicans have held for over three decades. 'Troy Balderson, he's the guy,' Trump said before calling the candidate onto the stage. ...
 
"By dispatching Trump, Republican officials are making a dramatic gamble: that the number of supporters the president will energize into casting ballots for Balderson will more than offset the number of critics he'll jolt into voting for O'Connor."
 
- And Trump is not alone. Much of the GOP has thrown itself into electing Balderson, a sign that Republicans are worried about the district. More from Alex: "The all-out push underscores the GOP's trepidation about the final special election before the midterms. A loss, following startling Republican defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would offer more evidence that a blue wave is on the horizon. And it would further fuel fears of what's becoming evident: That Democrats are simply more amped up, even in areas that have long been safely Republican.
 
"As he addressed volunteers gathered in a campaign office on Friday afternoon, Balderson, a 56-year-old state legislator, hinted at the enthusiasm deficit that was plaguing his party. ... 'You all know, it's a tight race. And everybody wants to know, why is it tight? Why is it tight?' he said. 'Because this race is all about turnout.' ... Republicans contend that their mobilization headaches are being compounded by the unusual timing of the race. Many voters are on vacation or going about their summers and unaware of the special election."
 
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich also said in an interview on ABC's "This Week" that the Balderson camp did not invite Trump to the district, but that the president and his team decided to come, via the Columbus Dispatch's Jack Torry. Balderson's camp said in a statement it was an "honor to have" the president hold a rally in the district, without explicitly mentioning Kasich.
 
BIG MONEY IN POLITICS - A federal judge invalidated an FEC regulation that has allowed most big donors to so-called dark money groups to remain anonymous. POLITICO's Brent Griffiths: "Judge Beryl A. Howell ruled the FEC's current regulation of such groups, including 501(c) 4 non-profits, fails to uphold the standard Congress intended when it required the disclosure of politically related spending. 'The challenged regulation facilitates such financial 'routing,' blatantly undercuts the congressional goal of fully disclosing the sources of money flowing into federal political campaigns, and thereby suppresses the benefits intended to accrue from disclosure ... '" Howell wrote. The decision is
 likely to be appealed.
 
- Corporate PACs have increased their donations to Democrats who could become committee chairs if they flip the House. POLITICO's Theodoric Meyer: "In the first half of this year, nine House Democratic ranking members - compared with just three Republican committee chairmen - raised at least 10 percent more from corporate PACs than they did in the same period in 2016, according to a POLITICO analysis of data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. ... [T]he uptick shows big business eyeing the chances that Democrats could win in November and trying to make early inroads with potential party leaders."
 
TIME FOR SOME GAME THEORY - A Republican outside group went up with an ad in Kansas' 3rd District that might sound appealing to the Democratic base. Campaign Pro's Steve Shepard: "'Meet progressive Brent Welder: community organizer, friend of Barack Obama and ally of Bernie Sanders,' a buoyant woman says at the start of the ad, the narration track laid over upbeat music. 'Welder wants to bring Obama-Sanders progressivism to Kansas' ... Here's the twist: The ad is commissioned by Ending Spending, the outside group led by conservative billionaire Joe Ricketts. The first two-thirds seems designed to boost Welder, but the last 10 seconds of the spot track more with Ending Spending's views. 'We
 don't need more Obama-Sanders progressivism,' the still-cheery narrator says."
 
GO YOUR OWN WAY - Campaigns face an increased risk of cyberattacks as we approach election day. But they're largely on their own. AP's Steve Peoples and Christina Cassidy: "In many cases, House and Senate political campaigns said they're just beginning to adopt basic internal security protocols, such as two-step verification for all email, storage and social media accounts and encrypted messaging services such as Wickr. There is no protocol in place for campaigns or national parties to monitor broader social media misinformation campaigns, however."
 
BATTLEGROUND BULLETIN - The Congressional Leadership Fund has so far sat out of Rep. Barbara Comstock's (R-Va.) tough reelection bid. The Washington Post's Jenna Portnoy: "CLF declined to say why it isn't spending on behalf of Comstock, but noted that plans could change before Election Day. 'Nobody works harder than Barbara Comstock,' CLF spokeswoman Courtney Alexander said. 'Anyone who would bet against her is foolish, and CLF is closely monitoring the race.'"
 
PLAYING DEFENSE - Much of the House Freedom Caucus rolled into Congress during the 2010 GOP wave. Now some are trying to survive a possible Democratic one. POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "[Virginia GOP Rep. Dave] Brat and Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania were elected in the throes of the tea party backlash against then-President Barack Obama. ... Their politics - and shifting makeup of their districts spurred by redistricting - are providing ample fodder for Democratic challengers. ...
 
"Brat, a former economics professor who's railed against leadership in the past, has softened his tone lately, mending his previously fraught relationship with senior Republicans in a way that's caught their attention. ... Perry, in his race, has stuck with his usual fiery rhetoric, even though his seat is now on Democrats' radar."
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) released his first reelection ad Monday focusing on the economy and jobs. "Here in Virginia we have to build an economy that works for all," Kaine says in the ad. The Kaine campaign is spending about $158,000 on the ad, which is slightly more than the $142,000 his GOP opponent, Corey Stewart, had in the bank at the end of the second quarter. Kaine has already reserved $5 million on the airwaves. 
 
- Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also went up with his first ads: a positive spot touting Cruz's response to Hurricane Harvey, and two negative spots attacking his opponent, Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. The first of those says O'Rourke is more extreme than House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), while the second ad hits him on drug policy.
 
CANDIDATE TRENDS - A record number of candidates from the LGBT community are running this cycle. The New York Times' Liam Stack and Catie Edmondson: "[M]ore than 400 gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender candidates [are] running for office this year - a record number, according to groups that track such data. ... Around half of these candidates are running for state offices, a priority for activists who say many of the most important civil rights battles are happening close to home."
 
2020 WATCH - The annual Netroots Nation conference was an early dress rehearsal for Democratic presidential hopefuls. POLITICO's David Siders from New Orleans: "The gathering served as validation of liberal voters' increasing pull within the Democratic Party, with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio heralding 'the dawning of a new progressive era.' No fewer than eight prospective presidential candidates trekked through the convention halls, meeting privately with activist groups and maneuvering to outdo one another on the left."
 
- And if there was any doubt, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will seek reelection in 2020. He named Jonathan Shell, the state's House Republican leader who was ousted in a primary, his campaign chairman, via the Louisville Courier Journal.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't like starting late," McConnell announcing his 2020 Senate campaign, per the AP.
 
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