Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: 5 things to watch in tonight’s primaries — New York attorney general race previews future of Democratic party — Estes vs. Estes
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 07 Aug 2018 08:06:49 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/07/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
Welcome to another election edition of Score. Tonight, we have a lot of big races that will be decided in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, the special election in Ohio's 12th District and Washington state. Check POLITICO at around 7:15 p.m. Eastern for a live chat featuring your favorite election team (that's the Campaign Pro team, if you were confused). Polls close first in Ohio at 7:30 p.m.
 
With that many races up for grabs, POLITICO's Steve Shepard and Elena Schneider outline the things you should watch tonight. The first comes in the OH-12 matchup between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor. The race "will test the potency of boiling down a House race to two candidates not on the ballot: Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi, a pair of polarizing figures that each party hopes will drive turnout. Trump campaigned alongside Balderson last weekend, aiming to juice support for the state senator in a race that's tightened into single digits, according to public and private polling. ... Republicans also tried to tie Democrat Danny O'Connor to Nancy Pelosi in TV ads, a
 strategy the GOP has used in special elections throughout the last year and is prepared to replicate in the fall."
 
Trump's primary power will also be put to the test. Trump waded into the Kansas GOP gubernatorial primary, endorsing longtime supporter Kris Kobach in a Monday tweet as he tries to oust Gov. Jeff Colyer. Trump waded into the race despite the fact that he had "been urged to stay on the sidelines by the Republican Governors Association and some White House advisers, who fear that Kobach could be defeated in a general election." Trump also endorsed in two Michigan primaries: state Attorney General Bill Schuette in the gubernatorial contest and John James for Senate.
 
The battle for the future of the Democratic party will continue tonight, as progressives try to secure some victories. Both Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, who is running for governor in Michigan, and Brent Welder, who is running in Kansas' 3rd District. El-Sayed has trailed the establishment-backed Gretchen Whitmer in polling, while "Republicans are confident they can paint [Welder] as out-of-step with a traditionally Republican area that has recoiled at Trump's GOP."
 
- A grab bag of the remaining races to watch: In WA-08, Republican Dino Rossi is expected to emerge from the jungle primary, but what Democrat will join him in this battleground seat? What Republican will face Democrat Paul Davis (who ran unopposed) in KS-02, another battleground? Which Democrats will win the primaries in MI-09 and MI-13 and become a likely member of Congress in a safe blue district? And what will the general election matchup be in the MI-11 battleground?
 
Good Tuesday morning. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @MaggieSeverns and @JamesArkin.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 91.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries.
 
TALKING TARIFFS - Republican leaders worried that the president's tariffs could come into play in some battleground districts - for example, in Minnesota's 1st District. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Judy Keen: "Farmers, particularly soybean growers, have been hurt by retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and other countries after they were hit with U.S. levies on imports such as steel and aluminum. No top-tier candidates in the district - including Republican primary rivals Jim Hagedorn of Blue Earth and state Sen. Carla Nelson of Rochester - unreservedly endorse the tariffs. These misgivings are one way they're trying to demonstrate that they're attuned to rural voters' worries and
 priorities."
 
BIG SPENDING ALERT - The League of Conservation Voters and United Steelworkers have teamed up to spend $3.1 million on voter mobilization in four battleground Senate seats. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "The money will go to Arizona and Nevada - Democrats' two best opportunities to flip Senate seats this cycle - as well as Montana and Ohio, two races featuring Democratic incumbents. The partnership will be run through the joint New American Jobs Fund, according to a press release. It will focus on voter persuasion and turnout, but will include some digital and TV advertising and direct mail. The groups aim to contact 106,000 voters in Phoenix; 106,000 voters in Las Vegas and Henderson,
 Nevada; and 58,000 voters in Cincinnati, Ohio and the surrounding county."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - How do you rally the president's supporters without mentioning him by name? POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "Republicans in several hotly contested New Jersey congressional races are keeping an arm's length from President Donald Trump - who remains deeply unpopular in the state - while at the same time using the president's immigration policies to gin up his base. ... 'These Trump voters will come out and vote if Trump is on the ballot,' Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said. 'So how do you find a way to make them feel that at least there's a referendum on Trump at stake here without turning off the moderate voters who would normally vote Republican and
 who are turned off by Trump?'"
 
SCOTUS BATTLE - America First Policies, a Trump-aligned outside group, is kicking seven figures into the Supreme Court battle. POLITICO's Chris Cadelago: The group "will take to broadcast TV beginning Wednesday with ads against Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, according to information the group provided to POLITICO. America First plans to spend nearly $1.2 million over the nearly month-long blitz, expanding on the parallel efforts of other deep pocketed conservative groups".
 
- Americans for Prosperity said it's reached over 1 million Americans through direct mail, telephone calls or door knocks urging them to support Brett Kavanaugh's nomination.
 
WAY DOWNBALLOT - The Democratic primary race for New York attorney general has turned into a microcosm of the battle for the future of the party. The Atlantic's Russell Berman: "The Democrats are all, to one degree or another, running on the explicit promise of taking on Trump and protecting New Yorkers from his administration's conservative policies. They're seizing on the unexpected opening of a plum elected perch with a big national spotlight, and on the desire of progressive voters - already energized for the midterm congressional elections - to fight the president in whatever way they can. But the attorney general's race is also caught up in a turbulent New York political moment, one
 that pits veterans of the state's Democratic establishment against insurgents trying to push the party to the left." Separately, Yahoo News' Hunter Walker reported that "the race is on Trump's mind, and he has asked allies in New York for opinions about the candidates."
 
FUNDRAISING MACHINE - Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke continues to raise money at an incredible clip in his bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). On the heels of Cruz releasing his first ads (some of which attacked O'Rourke), O'Rourke's campaign said he raised north of $1.27 million dollars over the weekend.
 
WHAT'S IN A NAME? - In one of the more novel races this cycle, Kansas Republican Rep. Ron Estes is facing a primary challenge from ... Ron M. Estes. BuzzFeed News' Alexis Levinson on how the candidates are trying to distinguish themselves in this Ron-eat-Ron world: "The Facebook ads that the congressman is running in the final week of the campaign feature an image of the ballot, with Ron M. Estes - who will appear first on the ballot - blocked out in red with a big X next to his name. The congressman, on the second ballot line, is highlighted in green, next to a picture of his smiling face and a green checkmark. ...
 
"Republicans are convinced that the whole primary is Democrats trying to mess with them. They note, among other things, Ron M. Estes' wife, Ellen Estes, had donated to Democrat James Thompson's campaign when he was running against Estes in a special election last year and again late last year."
 
THE FULL GRASSLEY - Because it is never too early to campaign in Iowa, 2020 presidential candidate Rep. John Delaney is making his 14th stop in the state this week. His camp said he's slated to complete the "full Grassley" on Sunday - visiting all 99 of Iowa's counties.
 
BATTLEGROUND WATCH - The NRCC added Peter Tedeschi, who is running in Massachusetts' 9th District, to its "Contenders" phase of its Young Guns program - the second tier of its battleground race list.
 
REMEMBERING PAUL LAXALT - The former Nevada governor and senator died Monday at 96. The Las Vegas Review-Journal's Steve Tetreault's obituary.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I can run faster and jump higher than the other candidates," Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mahlon Mitchell joking about the advantage he has over his primary opponents because he is a black candidate, to HuffPost.
 
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