Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Balderson leads in OH-12 special — Kobach-Colyer matchup goes late in Kansas — Whitmer wins Michigan governor nod — Donnelly breaks from party on border wall
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 08 Aug 2018 08:03:08 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/08/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
The race in the OH-12 special election hasn't been called yet by The AP, but Republican Troy Balderson leads Democrat Danny O'Connor by 0.9 percentage points, with all the precincts reporting in. Republicans are on track to hold - barely - a district the president carried by double-digits in 2016 which has been under GOP control since 1983. Balderson declared victory last night while O'Connor said the race was too close to call; officially, there are over 3,000 provisional ballots and an unknown number of absentee ballots yet to count, which could at the very least swing the race into automatic recount territory, which is preventing an AP call.
 
But make no mistake, this race contains good signs for Democrats. Congressional Leadership Fund issued a rather ominous statement: "While we won tonight, this remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised. Any Republican running for Congress getting vastly outraised by an opponent needs to start raising more money." (There were 56 districts where GOP incumbents were outraised by a challenger last quarter). 
 
"It took over $3.5 million, visits from the president and vice president, and a late endorsement from the sitting governor, but Republicans appeared likely to eke out a victory in a House special election Tuesday night seen as a bellwether for the November midterms," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt writes. "Yet warning signs abound ... Trump won there by double digits in 2016 and, in most years, the seat never would have been in contention to begin with. ... 'This is the same story we've seen in every special election and last year's gubernatorial races: The Democratic base is fired up, we're on defense in suburban seats, and it's going to be a challenging fall,' said Robert Blizzard, a veteran
 GOP pollster who advised Balderson. 'We've known this for a year and a half.'"
 
- In Kansas, the Republican gubernatorial primary remains uncalled. State Secretary of State Kris Kobach has about a 500 vote lead over incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer with just under 95 percent of precincts reporting, as of 5:15 a.m. Eastern. Trump had waded into this race late, endorsing Kobach on Monday against the wishes of some of his aides. State Sen. Laura Kelly came away with Kansas Democrats' gubernatorial nod.
 
- In Michigan, the favorites triumphed in both gubernatorial primaries. Democrat Gretchen Whitmer fended off an outsider-progressive challenge from physician Abdul El-Sayed. State Attorney General Bill Schuette defeated Lt. Gov. Brian Calley on the Republican side. And in the state's GOP Senate primary, John James came out ahead - meaning both of Trump's endorsed candidates in the state won their primaries.
 
IN THE HOUSE - BATTLEGROUND DISTRICT RESULTS - KS-02: Republican Army veteran Steve Watkins won the GOP primary in retiring Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins' district. He'll face Democrat Paul Davis in the fall.
 
- KS-03: The Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder also remains uncalled. It is now a two person-race between Sharice Davids and Brent Welder, who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Davids leads Welder by about 500 votes with 71 percent of precincts reporting, as of 5:15 a.m.
 
- MI-11: Both the Democratic and Republican primaries remain uncalled as of early this morning. Haley Stevens leads Tim Greimel 27.5 percent to 23.2 percent in the Democratic primary, while Lena Epstein is up over Rocky Raczkowski 30.3 percent to 25.1 percent in the GOP primary. Both primaries have about 14 percent of precincts outstanding.
 
- WA-08: Republican Dino Rossi will advance to the general election, but Democrats Kim Schrier and Jason Rittereiser are in a tight battle for the other slot in the all-party primary. Schrier had 18.8 percent and Rittereiser had 17.6 percent with more than two-thirds of the vote counted.
 
- Keep an eye on the rest of the count in Washington: So far, Republicans are right on the edge of 50 percent vote share in three districts' all-party primaries, a traditional warning sign for the general election. Rossi and two other Republicans combined for 47 percent so far in WA-08; in WA-05, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and two nominal Republican challengers got just over a majority of the vote so far; and in a surprise in WA-03, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and two Republicans combined for just under a majority so far. These numbers will shift as Washington counts its mail ballots, but that's where we stand right now.
 
- SAFE/OPEN SEATS - MI-09: Andy Levin leads Ellen Lipton 52.2 percent to 42.6 percent to succeed Levin's father Rep. Sandy Levin with 16 percent of the vote left uncounted.
 
- MI-13: Former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic nod to succeed former Rep. John Conyers.
 
See all the results: Kansas | Michigan | Missouri | Ohio | Washington
 
Good Wednesday morning. That was a late night! As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @MaggieSeverns and @JamesArkin.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 90.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries. 
 
DEEP IN THE HEART - Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke's bid to take down Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is still probably a longshot. But even a strong showing will pay dividends for the Lone Star state's Democratic party. The Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston: "So what would a moral victory be, if O'Rourke is unable to close the deal outright? Operatives from both parties suggest a 5- to 6-point spread - or smaller - could ... compel national Democrats to start making serious investments in the state and force local Republicans to re-examine how their own party practices politics going forward.
 
"But that kind of O'Rourke performance could also bear more immediate consequences ... O'Rourke could come up short but turn out enough voters in the right communities to push Democrats over the line in races for the Legislature and U.S. House."
 
- Cruz also asked President Donald Trump to campaign for him. "I would certainly welcome his support, and I hope to see him in Texas," Cruz told the Houston Chronicle's Jeremy Wallace. "I think we are likely to see the president down in Texas before the election."
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Senate Democrats and outside groups promoting them are spending big on health care, while Republicans have a more varied (or scattered) message on the airwaves. USA Today's Deirdre Shesgreen and Maureen Groppe: "Senate Democratic candidates and allied outside groups have devoted more than 40 percent of their TV ads this year to health care - spending a combined $17 million on spots pledging to protect people with pre-existing conditions, fight for lower drug prices and guard against cuts to Medicare. ... Republicans and the GOP-leaning groups have divided their ad dollars on a broader set of issues - spending about $10.5 million on spots embracing President Donald Trump,
 $14 million on ads touting the GOP tax law and $7.6 million on commercials highlighting a hard line on immigration."
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running against GOP Rep. Dave Brat in Virginia's 7th District, is going up with her first general election television ad. The ad is a positive bio spot where she talks about her father and her work for the CIA.
 
UPSET WATCH - In Massachusetts' 7th District, Democratic Rep. Mike Capuano and primary challenger Ayanna Pressley met for a debate Tuesday. Massachusetts Playbook's Lauren Dezenski writes in: They "had the sharpest exchange over their respective records and abilities to deliver for the district in their second debate of the season ... For Capuano, it's about seniority. Mid-debate, Capuano cited the work of longtime Massachusetts icons like Senators John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, saying 'Ted Kennedy was not especially effective when he first started ... He learned how to work the system.' Pressley, meanwhile, twice cited Reps. Katherine Clark, Joe Kennedy III, Seth Moulton, and Sen. Elizabeth
 Warren as examples of Democrats in the delegation who made waves even as Washington newbies."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) broke from his party and said that Trump should get money for the wall. POLITICO's Burgess Everett from Indianapolis: Donnelly "said that Trump should get far more than the $1.6 billion the Senate Appropriations Committee has been preparing to send him. Trump has repeatedly threatened to shut the government down either before or after the election without a significant infusion of money to fulfill his signature campaign promise, often telling lawmakers he wants $5 billion in the September spending bill.
 
"The moderate Democrat says he does 'not want under any circumstances' a shutdown. So he said Congress should 'absolutely' provide the president with a larger amount of border wall funding this fall in order to avoid one.'I'm fine with providing him some more. I actually voted for border wall funding three different times,' Donnelly said in an interview here."
 
- Meanwhile, continuing the cross-party theme, Donnelly's Republican opponent Mike Braun cheered a key provision of the Affordable Care Act to a crowd of friendly supporters. The Washington Examiner's David Drucker: "Braun said Tuesday that insurance companies should be forced to cover pre-existing medical conditions, remarks that sparked applause from GOP activists."
 
YEAR OF THE WOMAN? - Women candidates have made strides this year, but even with a wave of victories, the vast majority of elected officials will still be men. POLITICO's Heather Caygle and Elana Schor: "Currently, women comprise nearly 20 percent of the House, while 23 of the 100 senators are female. Those figures may well see an uptick after the election, but the increase will be nominal. Indeed, in an election year in which female candidates have ascended to prominence - particularly Democratic women buoyed by a wave of anti-Trump resistance and a fervent liberal base - it's easy to overlook that they still make up less than a quarter of all House candidates, according to data tracked by
 the nonpartisan Center for American Women and Politics."
 
WAY DOWNBALLOT - Democratic lieutenant governors are playing catch-up with Republicans by forming their own association. POLITICO's David Siders and Daniel Strauss: "The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, announced Tuesday, will raise money for lieutenant governor candidates ahead of the November election, though the group said it does not have a benchmark for how much it might raise and spend.Democrats are badly outnumbered by Republican governors and lieutenant governors, and the Republican Governors Association routinely out-raises its Democratic counterpart."
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president will hold a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney on Monday in upstate New York, POLITICO New York's Jimmy Vielkind reported.
 
BALLOT TROUBLES - Reports of fake signatures on an independent candidate's ballot petition in Virginia's 2nd District are being looked at by a special prosecutor. The Newport News Daily Press' Dave Ress: "The names were gathered by paid staff and others associated with the re-election campaign for Rep. Scott Taylor, R-Virginia Beach. Taylor has said his staff did nothing wrong and only wanted to assure Brown a place on the ballot with him and Democrat Elaine Luria. Four paid Taylor staffers gathered the signatures in a two-day blitz shortly before the deadline for turning in ballot petitions and two months after [independent Shaun] Brown dropped her bid for the Democratic nomination in the
 wake of her indictment on federal corruption charges."
 
HISTORIC CANDIDACY - Democrat Christine Hallquist already made history as the first major party openly transgender gubernatorial candidate in American history. Now she's vying to become the first transgender governor - if she can win her primary and take down a popular Republican incumbent. POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger's profile: "Rather than making her gender identity a focus of her campaign, she is running, essentially, as a wonky technocrat. Her signature issue is a plan to revitalize rural Vermont by laying high-speed, fiber optic cable statewide."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It is an off-handed F-U." - Brothel owner and Nevada Assembly candidate Dennis Hof on his plans to put up a billboard calling himself, Sen. Dean Heller and gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt "the winning team!" despite the fact the other two have distanced themselves from him, via The Nevada Independent.
 
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