Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Missouri Senate race hot out of the gate — What Collins’ security fraud charges mean for November — O’Connor won’t concede in OH-12, Kobach won’t recuse in KS-Gov
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 09 Aug 2018 08:03:06 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro and James Arkin | 08/09/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
The Missouri Senate race has been all but set for months, but Tuesday's primary officially kicked off the general election. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley launched out of the gates to attack each other and set the terms of the race.
 
McCaskill, after coasting to her primary win, issued a challenge for four town hall-style debates taking questions from voters - "I don't think Josh Hawley has ever done a town hall," she told reporters in a call Wednesday morning. 
 
Hawley, in turn, challenged McCaskill to debate without moderators or rules, on a flatbed truck at various stops throughout Missouri. To back it up, he appeared Wednesday on said flatbed adorned with two lecterns, a couple bails of hay and a "Let's Debate" sign. He attacked her on the Supreme Court, immigration and health care. 
 
McCaskill and Hawley can barely contain their disdain for each other, and Wednesday foreshadowed a bitter race that's unlikely to stray from the negative. Hawley peppered his remarks with jokes about McCaskill's private plane; McCaskill knocked Hawley for never having faced a jury or tried a case. 
 
Hawley is betting on the Supreme Court to energize voters more than any other Republican on the map. A former SCOTUS clerk, he ran his first ad of the cycle on the vacancy, and accuses McCaskill of consistently voting the wrong way. McCaskill admitted it wasn't a political winner for her, saying some people would be unhappy whichever way she voted on the nominee. She said she'd judge the pick on health care, money in politics, and corporations versus the little guy. 
 
The Trump factor will be present throughout this race, which is in many ways a distillation of both parties' plans across the Senate map. Hawley, who said he spoke to President Donald Trump on Monday, is running as a close ally of the president in a state Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. "He's excited about this race. He's committed to this race," Hawley said of Trump. McCaskill, meanwhile, argues she's not an obstructionist, but not a rubber stamp either. She's betting that voters - even Trump voters - want a check on the president. 
 
Missouri is perhaps the key battleground for control of the Senate this fall. If Hawley wins, he all but shuts off Democrats' path to controlling the chamber. If McCaskill survives another tough campaign, Democrats are likely having a pretty good night across the board. 
 
Good Thursday morning. The great James Arkin ([email-masked];@JamesArkin) provided today's breakdown of the Missouri Senate race. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4 and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 89.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries. 
 
CONGRESSIONAL INDICTMENT - Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), the president's first supporter in Congress, was indicted by federal prosecutors over an alleged insider-trading scheme. POLITICO's Kyle Cheney, Jimmy Vielkind and Laura Nahmias: "The third-term congressman, who represents a district in western New York, had been under scrutiny from the Office of Congressional Ethics for his connection to the company, Innate Immunotherapeutics. He was the company's largest shareholder and served on its board. Prosecutors say that in 2017, Collins passed inside information to his son, Cameron, who passed it to another alleged conspirator, Stephen Zarsky, father of Cameron Collins' fiancee. The three -
 who all face charges of securities fraud, wire fraud and making false statements to the FBI - and other family and friends avoided about $768,000 in losses as a result of the inside information, prosecutors allege. ...
 
"Collins' attorneys rejected the allegations. 'We will answer the charges filed against Congressman Collins in court and will mount a vigorous defense to clear his good name,' said Collins' lawyers, Jonathan Barr and Jonathan New of BakerHostetler."
 
- What does this mean for November? Collins' conservative 27th District has not been considered a part of the House battlefield so far. The Democrats fielded Grand Island Supervisor Nate McMurray to challenge him. With the district not attracting much national attention, McMurray has only raised a hair under $134,000 with about $82,000 cash on hand, as of his Q2 FEC report (although the DCCC has had the district on its target list for the entire cycle). Jimmy has more: Collins "said in a letter to supporters that he will fight the charges 'while remaining on the ballot for re-election this November.' ... 'My goodness, this has been quite a morning. We've probably raised more this morning
 than we have during the whole race,' McMurray said Wednesday afternoon at a UAW hall. ... Republican leaders contacted by POLITICO said it was too early to say what effect the indictment would have on Collins. None abandoned him, but they were reluctant to leap to his defense."
 
But perhaps more importantly, Democrats are hoping to use the indictment against Republicans writ large to paint a culture of corruption. My POLITICO Playbook colleagues: "Of course, each House race is its own discrete contest. But put together, Democrats could have an opportunity to paint in broad strokes just as they did in 2006. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi seized on this already, saying in a news release that 'The charges against Congressman Collins show the rampant culture of corruption and self-enrichment among Republicans in Washington today.'"
 
HOW ABOUT THOSE TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL RACES? - In Ohio's 12th District, Democrat Danny O'Connor and state Democrats insist the race is still too tight to call. In a conference call Wednesday afternoon with reporters, Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper reiterated that some ballots still need to be counted and that they weren't conceding the race, while O'Connor's campaign manager Annie Ellison told CNN's Dan Merica that he has no plans to concede because "there is totally enough of a chance that out of the ballots that are left there are enough to go for Danny and bring us within the .5 needed for an automatic recount." The AP has not yet called the race for Republican Troy Balderson.
 
- In Kansas, state Secretary of State Kris Kobach said he wouldn't recuse himself from a recount in his primary against Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer. The Kansas City Star: "'The recount thing is done on a county level, so the secretary of state does not actually participate directly in the recount,' Kobach said at a campaign event in Topeka after initial results showed him winning by fewer than 200 votes. 'The secretary of state's office merely serves as a coordinating entity overseeing it all but not actually counting the votes,' Kobach said, contending that his role puts him at arm's length from the actual recount. No law requires Kobach to recuse himself, but legal and political experts
 said that he should do so to maintain trust in the election."
 
CHUGGING ALONG - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) seems like an unstoppable force. But his challenger, GOP state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, is not worried yet, despite other Republicans becoming skittish. James from Beckley, W.Va.: "[A]t least five outside groups are on the air attacking Manchin this month, hoping to drag down the Democrat and tilt the race back in their favor before Labor Day. But if Morrisey can't right his ship by then, he risks outside groups and donors turning their attention elsewhere. ...
 
"In an interview here after touring a local mining equipment company, Morrisey, who has been elected statewide twice, didn't dispute that he's behind, but chalked it up to being less well-known than Manchin, who was West Virginia governor before being elected to the Senate in 2010. Morrisey dismissed as 'irrelevant' polls showing him trailing by high single digits or low double digits."
 
ELECTION WEIRDNESS IN MI-13 - Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic nod in Michigan's 13th (a deep blue district), making her functionally a congresswoman-in-waiting. But in a bizarre twist, it looks like she did not win the Democratic nomination for a special election that will take place concurrently with the general election to fill the remainder of former Rep. John Conyers' term, after he resigned amid sexual harassment allegations. Instead, Brenda Jones won that race, which saw fewer candidates than the general election primary. What exactly happens next remains up in the air, because it is unclear if Jones would want to give up her seat on the Detroit city council for a short, lame-duck
 term in Congress. The Detroit Free Press reported that Jones' camp issued a statement saying "we're reviewing the results of last night's election and a statement will be forthcoming."
 
SOME LATE CALLS - Some Tuesday election results that have been called since the early edition of Score on Wednesday:
 
- KS-03: Sharice Davids won the Democratic nomination for the right to take on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder.
 
- MI-09: Andy Levin won the Democratic primary to succeed his father, Democratic Rep. Sandy Levin.
 
- MI-11: Lena Epstein won the Republican nomination while Haley Stevens won the Democratic nod.
 
HACK ALERT? - Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) is saying that Russia hackers have infiltrated state systems, but state officials don't know what he's talking about. Nelson told the Tampa Bay Times' Alex Leary, Steve Bousquet and Kirby Wilson that "they have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about." But BuzzFeed News' Kevin Collier reported that the state secretary of state Ken Detzner told county supervisors that he "has received zero information from Senator Nelson or his staff that support his claims" and that "the Department has received no information from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Bureau of Investigation or the
 Florida Department of Law Enforcement that corroborates Senator Nelson's statement and we have no evidence to support these claims."
 
- More election security news from Morning Cybersecurity's Eric Geller: "A federal judge in Georgia is considering a potentially precedent-setting question: Is there enough time left before the midterms for her to require Georgia to stop using its paperless electronic voting machines? Election integrity advocates and Georgia voters on Tuesday asked the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia to bar Georgia from using those voting machines - which cybersecurity experts consider insecure because they lack paper backups - in November's elections. They say the preliminary injunction is urgently necessary while they proceed with a lawsuit against Georgia Secretary of State Brian
 Kemp's over the constitutionality of the machines. ... But the judge in the case isn't so sure, and she wants Kemp to reply to the plaintiffs' claim that the switch is feasible."
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - Heritage Action has laid out its target list. McClatchy's Katie Glueck: Heritage "has selected a dozen races for investment, ranging from the Sixth District of Kentucky-where Rep. Andy Barr faces a serious challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath-to the Ninth District of North Carolina, a Charlotte-area open seat that is unexpectedly competitive this cycle. The organization plans to spend at least $2.5 million, with the minimum investment in each district ranging between $200,000 and $400,000, Heritage Action officials told McClatchy, adding that they hope to be able to spend more." The districts: VA-07, PA-04, OH-01, PA-17, NC-13, MO-02, IA-01, KY-06, MI-08, NC-09, NM-02,
 NJ-11.
 
FUTURE OF THE PARTY? - Candidates endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) suffered a handful of defeats on Tuesday, drawing into question his sway within the Democratic party. POLITICO's David Siders: "[I]n high-profile races across the country, Sanders-backed candidates continue to falter at the ballot box. The losses suggest organizational weaknesses that could hamper Sanders if he runs for president again in 2020 - even as a diaspora of Sanders-aligned candidates continues to test his appeal in the midterm elections."
 
DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - Rep. Jason Lewis' (R-Minn.) past career in radio has been a well of controversial statements. More have been unearthed, this time homophobic comments. BuzzFeed News' Dominic Holden: "On the Jason Lewis Show in 2013, he argued it was acceptable to single out gay couples with discriminatory marriage bans, just as rapists and speeding drivers could be targeted by criminal laws. But if a court ruled that the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause granted same-sex couples the right to marry, he said, that would be equivalent to providing constitutional protections to a wide variety of lawbreakers. Lewis said a court ruling based on the Equal Protection Clause in favor of gay
 couples 'would undo the entire state criminal code because we're all treated unequally.'"
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Are you fucking kidding me?" - Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ben Jealous when asked by a reporter if he was a socialist.
 
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