Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Breaking down Hawaii’s primaries — Shady super PACs try to dodge spending disclosures — Kansas GOP gubernatorial primary tightens further
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2018 08:03:01 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Zach Montellaro | 08/10/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
WORKING FOR THE WEEKEND - Voters in Hawaii head to the polls Saturday for another primary day. And when Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Hawaii) declared she would try to dethrone Democratic Gov. David Ige, it looked like her primary to lose. 
 
Public polling early in the year had Hanabusa lapping Ige (one from Mason-Dixon Polling in March had her up 20 in the primary). Hanabusa's camp painted Ige, who defeated former Gov. Neil Abercrombie in a 2014 primary, as an absentee governor who badly mishandled the false-alarm missile alert in January. But gradually, the narrative on the race changed, and it has started to look like it could slip through her fingers.
 
"The governor was kind of bumping along up to [the missile alert] and after that everyone thought he'd be dead," a senior state Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak freely, told Score.
 
"On his side, what really helped him [electorally] was the volcano that happened in May," the senior strategist said. "He had a chance to prove he learned from his missteps and ... manage a crisis." Ige's campaign has run on this, securing the endorsement of popular Mayor Harry Kim and running an ad featuring his response to the eruption.
 
Public polls tightened and eventually showed Ige regaining a lead over Hanabusa as the campaign dragged. Ige was also able to shore up support among key constituencies.
 
"[Hanabusa] is struggling with the progressives," said Matthew Fitch, executive director of the Merriman River Group, which conducted polls for the local outlet Honolulu Civil Beat. "That seems to be where the air kind of went out of her sails a while ago."
 
Observers also said Hanabusa struggled to make her case to voters. "She didn't seem to present a compelling enough reason to come back from Washington," Chad Blair, the politics and opinion editor of Civil Beat said. "There's an appearance she changes jobs too quickly. ... Ige has actually criticised her on this, saying, 'It looks a little too opportunistic.'"
 
Hanabusa's campaign maintains it feels good about the race. "What we're seeing on the ground and in the community is very encouraging and doesn't quite match the polling," said Keith DeMello, a spokesman for the campaign. "The sense that we're getting is the momentum has shifted again."
 
The primary race to replace Hanabusa in Hawaii's 1st District could send a familiar face back to Congress: former Rep. Ed Case. The well-known, moderate Case could be the front-runner in a crowded race that also features Lt. Gov. Doug Chin and state Rep. Kaniela Ing, for whom Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned on Thursday.
 
Happy Friday! Next time I write about Hawaii, I hope to actually do it from there. Email my editor telling him how great of an idea that is. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 88.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 11: Hawaii primaries. - Aug. 14: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont primaries. 
 
SHADY SUPER PACS - Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Super PACs are increasingly ignoring their duty to disclose their spending to the Federal Election Commission, according the watchdog group Campaign Legal Center, which is filing three complaints asking the FEC to crack down. The complaints highlight super PACs created during this cycle's primary elections, which spent money but sidestepped rules for reporting how much they spent with the FEC, leaving voters in the dark on who funded the efforts. They are just part of a trend of bad behavior in the super PAC space, Campaign Legal Center says."
 
WHAT ABOUT KANSAS? - The GOP gubernatorial primary between incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has gotten even tighter. The Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry and Hunter Woodall: "The gap between Gov. Jeff Colyer and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach narrowed to roughly 100 votes Thursday as the rival Republicans began to show signs that the election may ultimately be decided in a courthouse.
 
"Colyer released a letter at 5 p.m. calling on Kobach to recuse himself from providing advice to local election officials. The letter comes after multiple counties reported that the election night totals on the secretary of state's website were inaccurate, further clouding the results of a historically close election. 'It has come to my attention that your office is giving advice to county election officials - as recently as a conference call yesterday - and you are making public statements on national television which are inconsistent with Kansas law and may serve to suppress the vote in the ongoing primary election process,' Colyer said in a letter.
 
- Kobach told CNN's Chris Cuomo that "I'll be happy to recuse myself" but called it a symbolic move because his office doesn't count the vote.
 
THE TAKEAWAY - After the special election in Ohio's 12th District, one thing is clear: The old Republican formula for winning House races has changed radically. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider and Scott Bland: "Deep suburban antipathy toward Trump has turned the old GOP electoral coalition inside out in many areas in 2017 and 2018 - like Ohio's 12th District, which for two decades sent former Rep. Pat Tiberi to Congress on the back of his popularity in the Columbus suburbs. His anointed successor, Republican Troy Balderson, took a different path to a small special-election lead, instead building on Trump's rural strength while Democrat Danny O'Connor cut deeply into Tiberi's old base. ...
 
"'In districts with suburban and rural geographies, we have two challenges: You've got to run up turnout in the rural areas, and you've got to focus on persuasion in the suburban areas,' said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster who worked on Balderson's campaign. 'From a campaign standpoint, that's a tough needle to thread. It takes both time and money.' ... At the same time, Republican strength in rural areas under Trump poses an issue for Democrats across the House map."
 
UNSOLICITED ADVICE - Former Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) has some pointers for Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) on how to win an election while indicted. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher: Grimm "said his case could provide a road map of sorts for Mr. Collins: Dig in, hire good lawyers (read: expensive), expect to be pummeled in the press and find something, anything else to run on and talk about. 'He's going to have to swallow every bit of it. And smile,' Mr. Grimm said. 'He should go right back to his job and remain professional.' ...
 
"'Washington, as long as you're riding high, they want to be your friend,' Mr. Grimm said. 'And when you're not, they don't want to be anywhere near you.' He said he had taken to heart the old saw of the only true friend in Washington is a dog, adopting one early in his first term. ... When Mr. Collins gets back to Washington, there will be a stern sit-down with the Republican leadership, Mr. Grimm said, but he advised Mr. Collins to not be overly concerned."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Republicans have largely abandoned messaging on the strong economy or tax cuts in top battleground districts. The AP's Steve Peoples and Bill Barrow: "Instead, as Republicans enter the final month of the primary season, they're looking ahead to a general-election strategy of embracing anxiety as a tool to motivate voters. That was clear this week as the GOP's closing message in an Ohio special election questioned Democrat Danny O'Connor's connection to Pelosi, the House Democratic leader and preferred super villain for Republicans. ... Some Republican strategists are frustrated the party isn't focused on the tax law or the broader health of the economy in the run-up to
 Election Day. Others concede that in the Trump era, there's no better motivator than fear of the other side, particularly the prospect of Pelosi returning to the speaker's chair."
 
- Democrats have embraced a platform of gun control across the spectrum, with some even touting bad marks from the NRA as opposed to running from them. The Wall Street Journal's Reid Epstein: "In June, the NRA took its candidate-grade archive off the internet after past 'A' scores showed up in political attacks against those holding the ratings. Everytown for Gun Safety, the Bloomberg-backed umbrella organization that includes Moms Demand Action, responded by posting its own archive of NRA grades. [NRA spokeswoman Jennifer Baker] says its grades change each election cycle and aren't relevant following the cycle. Some Democratic candidates and Congress members now wear 'F' lapel pins to
 advertise their NRA grades."
 
ROCK AND A HARD PLACE - Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is stuck with no friends in the battle over abortion. The Indianapolis Star's Maureen Groppe: "As one of the few anti-abortion Democrats left in Congress, Donnelly is again being targeted for defeat by anti-abortion groups while not getting help from abortion rights advocates - despite the fact that both sides say he's been with them on more than half of their most important votes. ... But abortion may now be the most difficult issue for Donnelly - one of the most vulnerable senators on the ballot this year - who is trying to prove that there's still any kind of a middle in politics in an increasingly polarized electorate."
 
VEEP ON THE TRAIL - Vice President Mike Pence is headlining a gubernatorial fundraiser in Ohio, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported: "Pence is slated to host a public tax policy event in Cincinnati for the pro-Trump America First Policies 501(c)(4). But Pence will also help fundraise for Attorney General Mike DeWine and DeWine's nominee for lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jon Husted, according to an invitation for the event obtained by POLITICO."
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - The intraparty fight over the Democratic nomination in Arizona's 2nd District continues. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "EMILY's List's Women Vote! super PAC is out with a new TV ad that attacks Democrat Matt Heinz, who's running against former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. ... 'Doctors often fight to save victims of gun violence,' the ad [says]. 'But Matt Heinz voted with the NRA to keep dangerous, high capacity magazines in Arizona.'"
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm exploring a run for the presidency of the United States," Michael Avenatti, lawyer for Stormy Daniels, told the Des Moines Register.
 
CORRECTION: An earlier version of Morning Score listed the incorrect Pennsylvania district Heritage Action is targeting in support of GOP Rep. Scott Perry. It is targeting Pennsylvania's 10th District.
 
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