Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Previewing tonight’s primary battles — Chamber of Commerce weighs in on Democratic primary for first time in 8 years — McSally hits Ward in Arizona Senate GOP primary
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2018 08:12:53 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/14/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
It's time for another primary night! Voters cast their ballots in four states with polls closing at 7 p.m. Eastern in Vermont, 8 p.m. in Connecticut and 9 p.m. in Minnesota and Wisconsin. We'll kick off another live chat at around 7:30 p.m., so check out the POLITICO homepage to hear from our brightest minds (and me).
 
There's a lot of races to watch tomorrow, and my colleagues Steven Shepard and James Arkin break down what you need to watch. The co-main events both come from the great state of Wisconsin. First, state Sen. Leah Vukmir squares off against businessman Kevin Nicholson for the GOP nod in the Senate race. Vukmir has the backing of much of the party establishment - including House Speaker Paul Ryan and family members of Gov. Scott Walker (Walker himself has stayed neutral in the race). Nicholson, meanwhile, "has one very deep-pocketed backer: GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein, who has financed several groups that spent around $10 million on the airwaves boosting Nicholson." Recent polls have had
 the race very close.
 
On the other side of the ballot, Democrats will pick a candidate to challenge Walker. Democratic voters will have 10 to pick from, with Tony Evers, the state superintendent of public instruction, leading in public polls.
 
Both parties will pick a candidate in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Democrats will choose among state Attorney General Lori Swanson, Rep. Tim Walz and state Rep. Erin Murphy. The "state's Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party endorsement process has loomed large in the race. Murphy captured the imprimatur at the state party convention this year, while Swanson only entered the race because the party endorsed a challenger to her candidacy for reelection as attorney general." Republicans will choose between former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Jeff Johnson. Pawlenty has to try to united the "Sam's Club" and "country club" wings of the party, while Johnson has been swinging at T-Paw for his time as president
 of the Financial Services Roundtable.
 
Some big congressional battleground seats will be picking their nominees, too. In two Minnesota seats, Democrats are on the defensive. In MN-01, Democrats will likely nominate Dan Feehan while Republicans are choosing between Jim Hagedorn and Carla Nelson. In MN-08, Republicans will likely nominate the Donald Trump-endorsed Pete Stauber while Democrats have a five-way primary on their hands. Meanwhile, the race to replace Ryan is on in WI-01. Republican Bryan Steil will likely win his party's nomination, while fundraising supernova Randy Bryce faces off against Cathy Myers for the Democratic nod.
 
Steven and James break down more races, including a prime Republican pickup in Connecticut's gubernatorial race. And in Vermont, Democrat Christine Hallquist is vying to become the first transgender major party gubernatorial nominee.
 
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has waded into a Democratic primary for the first time since 2010. POLITICO's Lorraine Woellert: "The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Mary Glassman for Connecticut's 5th congressional district Monday, taking the rare step for the group of weighing in on a Democratic primary. ... 'Mary has proven that she can win tough races, bring people together, and lead,' said Ken Johnson, director of congressional and public affairs for the Chamber."
 
Good Tuesday morning. The new funniest endorsement of the cycle: Jimmy Buffett backed Democrat Gwen Graham in the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 84.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 21: Alaska, Wyoming primaries. - Aug. 28: Arizona, Florida primaries and Oklahoma primary runoffs. - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) is going after one of her Senate primary opponents, Kelli Ward, in a new ad. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "'Who will stand with President Trump?' a narrator says in the ad. 'Former Democrat Kelli Ward attacked President Trump's plans to crack down on illegal immigration, saying Trump was making a mistake. And Ward supports amnesty. Kelli Ward doesn't support President Trump.' ... The new ad from McSally's campaign marks the first time she's attacked Ward on TV."
 
MORE LATE PRIMARY RESULTS - In WA-08, Democrat Jason Rittereiser suspended his campaign and said he offered Democrat Kim Schrier his support after the AP on Monday called Schrier as the second-place finisher in in the district's top-two primary. Schrier will face Republican Dino Rossi (who finished first) to replace retiring GOP Rep. Dave Reichert, representing one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.
 
DATA DIVE - Democrats trail on a couple of key metrics in Florida as the midterm elections approach. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "While it's notched four consecutive wins in local bellwether races, Florida's Democratic Party has lost a share of its registered voters in Florida since 2016 and the percentage of Democrats casting vote-by-mail absentee ballots this month trails those mailed in by Republicans, according to new figures from the state's elections division. ... 'If a blue wave is forming, it certainly hasn't crested. Maybe there's a red tide coming in and affecting the blue wave?' said Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who studies the state's
 voter rolls and trends."
 
YEAR OF THE WOMAN? - In a year that's seen a historic groundswell of women running for office, Republican women trying to tiptoe around the president have seen less of a surge. The New York Times' Kate Zernike: "'We've told a lot of women, "Don't run this year," said Meghan Milloy, the co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, which helps to promote moderate female Republicans. 'We've told them, 'You're a great candidate, if it were any other year you would win.' We don't want these women, who have such potential, to lose and get down and get out of politics.' ... Only about 14 percent of Republican House candidates are women, compared to about a third of Democratic candidates, according
 to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers."
 
DONNELLY'S PATH TO VICTORY - Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) has remained largely under the radar in Washington, and he's hoping to channel that demeanor to win reelection. POLITICO's Burgess Everett in Indianapolis: "[T]he burly 62-year-old is running for reelection like a city council candidate, highlighting small-bore accomplishments and projecting an agreeable demeanor that contrasts sharply with what comes out of the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue most days. It's a risky strategy to break through in this political environment, but it's what Donnelly is comfortable with. He believes his conservative state is looking for someone who's willing to occasionally tell President Donald Trump no,
 but otherwise keeps his mouth shut in D.C. and diligently sticks to the basics."
 
STEYER SPENDING SPREE - Billionaire Democratic megadonor Tom Steyer is dumping millions more into the midterms. He announced his latest initiative called "Need to Vote," a GOTV program from his "Need to Impeach" organization. POLITICO California's Carla Marinucci: "Steyer - whose Need to Impeach petition drive founded last October has collected 5.5 million signatures - said he will invest $10 million 'to contact every single one of our supporters and encourage them to cast a ballot.' The success of such personalized outreach voter efforts has already been proven in 2018, Steyer said," citing efforts in the recent Ohio special election.
 
STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU - Republicans in Ohio are torn between two competing political camps: Trump's and outgoing Gov. John Kasich's. How does state Attorney General Mike DeWine, the party's gubernatorial nominee, handle it? The Cincinnati Enquirer's Jessie Balmert: "Not focus on it, for one. 'What I owe the state is to talk about what Mike DeWine and Jon Husted want to do when we're in the governor's office,' DeWine told The Enquirer. ... Rather than tying himself to Trump or Kasich, DeWine is banking on his own brand of Republicanism. He has been in politics long before Kasich or Trump came on the scene, after all."
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - A group of black business executives said it'll spend millions this cycle to back candidates "who champion economic causes benefiting African-Americans." POLITICO's David Siders: "The group, Black Economic Alliance, is officially nonpartisan, but it is backing four Democrats in its first round of endorsements: Sen. Tim Kaine in Virginia and gubernatorial candidates Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ben Jealous in Maryland and Richard Cordray in Ohio. ... Tony Coles, the group's co-chairman, told POLITICO the alliance has raised about $3.5 million and expects to raise several million dollars more."
 
- Republican groups have been spending big at Trump properties. McClatchy's Ben Wieder and Anita Kumar: "At least 125 Republican campaigns and conservative political groups spent more than $3.5 million at President Donald Trump's resorts, hotels and restaurants since January 2017, the month he was sworn in ... By comparison, candidates and political groups spent less than $35,000 at Trump properties for the entire two-year 2014 election cycle, according to FEC records."
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president opened up a fundraiser for Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) in Utica, N.Y., to tee off on old rivals. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Tyler Pager: "Officially, the event was to be a closed-door fund-raiser for Ms. Tenney - 'I'm here for Claudia,' Mr. Trump said, 'She has been incredible in Congress.' But the White House unexpectedly opened the event to cameras less than an hour before it began, giving the president a far broader platform to air old grievances than the ballroom at the Doubletree Hotel Utica would normally provide." Trump took aim at New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, also a Democrat, the Times reports.
 
ONE AWKWARD THANKSGIVING DINNER - The son of retiring GOP Rep. Bob Goodlatte is encouraging people to donate to the Jennifer Lewis, the Democrat running for his father's seat in Virginia's 6th District, via POLITICO's Stephanie Murray. Bobby Goodlatte (Rep. Goodlatte's son) also tweeted that "I'm deeply embarrassed that [fired FBI agent] Peter Strzok's career was ruined by my father's political grandstanding."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Perhaps more accurate was this personal poll done by someone at a grocery store in Wilmington." - A campaign email from Republican Scott Lively, who is running a long-shot bid to try to primary Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker.
 
CORRECTION: The Aug. 13 edition of Morning Score misspelled Conner Johnston's name.
 
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