Subject: Playbook PM: Analysts see more seats slipping away from GOP … NEW generic ballots out
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2018 11:09:09 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by AARP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Aug 15, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun 
             
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BIG PICTURE ... NYT'S SHERYL STOLBERG and NICK FANDOS, with a DALLAS dateline: "Democrats Discard Washington Platform in Bid for House Control": "House Democrats, looking to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans in November, are discarding the lessons of successful midterms past and pressing only a bare-bones national agenda, leaving it to candidates to tailor their own messages to their districts.

"It is a risky strategy, essentially putting off answering one of the most immediate questions facing the Democratic Party after its losses in 2016: What does it stand for? The strategy could also raise questions among voters about how Democrats would govern." NYT

-- DAVID SIDERS: "Midwest Democrats' answer to Trump: White, conventional and boring": "Two years after a bombastic Trump swept through the upper Midwest, Democrats are arming themselves with general election candidates widely considered palatable to a broader electorate than the party's progressive base. In the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, their victories serve as a reminder of the weight that establishment credentials still carry in the Midwest. ... 

"Ideologically, the Democratic primaries for governor on Tuesday were ill-defined, with multiple Democrats in both Minnesota and Wisconsin competing for the progressive mantle - and Republicans already promising to define them as unabashed liberals in November." POLITICO

NEW GENERIC BALLOTS ... CNN has D+11 ... QUINNIPIAC has D+9. (h/t Steve Shepard) 

RATINGS ALERT ... DAVE WASSERMAN at the COOK POLITICAL REPORT moved four seats away from the GOP, and one toward Republicans.

-- FLORIDA REP. CARLOS CURBELO (R) got safer. His seat went from toss up to lean Republican. QUICK THOUGHT ON THAT: Republicans have been chattering about Curbelo, and using his relative political comfort as evidence that the climate isn't bad for the party. But Curbelo has known he would have a race -- and been acting like that -- for some time.

-- CALIFORNIA REP. MIMI WALTERS, NEW JERSEY REP. TOM MACARTHUR and the open North Carolina 9th district all moved from lean Republican to tossup.

-- PENNSYLVANIA REP. SCOTT PERRY -- a leader of the Freedom Caucus -- went from likely Republican to lean Republican.

WASSERMAN (@redistrict): "After today's changes, @CookPolitical rates 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January."

NANCY PELOSI is in Texas today, per the Houston Chronicle: "Pelosi, a California Democrat who has said she will run for speaker again if Democrats win the majority in the U.S. House this year, is set to attend a pair of public events Wednesday, one with U.S. Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee, and another with Democrat Sylvia Garcia, who is poised to become Houston's first-ever Latina elected to Congress." Houston Chronicle

-- PELOSI sat down with the Chicago Tribune editorial board: "[A]t the conclusion of our meeting, Pelosi leveled a strong criticism of the president: 'There is a drumbeat for decency,' she said, adding: 'I don't even have to mention his name.'" Trib

BUZZFEED'S HENRY GOMEZ (@HenryJGomez): "Just in: Trump will headline the Ohio Republican Party's state dinner next week."

Good Wednesday afternoon. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS is holding a briefing at 2 p.m.

POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- "Democrats eroding GOP's turnout edge in midterms," by Steve Shepard: "Three-fourths of GOP voters, 75 percent, say they are 'very motivated' to vote, as do 72 percent of Democrats; the difference between the two is within the poll's margin of error. Fewer independents, 53 percent, are very motivated to vote.

"In past midterm years, other surveys have showed Republican voters far more motivated than Democrats to show up at the polls. ... 

"Democrats maintain a slight edge in the generic ballot on the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, 42 percent to 38 percent, with one-in-five voters undecided." POLITICO ... Full results
       
A message from AARP:
 
Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors, Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman, and Playbook California author, Carla Marinucci, for a Playbook Elections event in California to discuss the 2018 midterms on Aug. 16, 2018 at 8:30 a.m. at the InterContinental Los Angeles Downtown. This event is part of the POLITICO-AARP series, "The Deciders."
         
ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 8:30 a.m.: "Great Republican election results last night. So far we have the team we want. 8 for 9 in Special Elections. Red Wave!" Trump also tweeted congrats and endorsements of Leah Vukmir, Bryan Steil, Scott Walker, Jeff Johnson, Pete Stauber, Bob Stefanowski and Kris Kobach.

-- NOTE: There were no special elections last night. 

... at 9:18 a.m.: "'People who enter the United States without our permission are illegal aliens and illegal aliens should not be treated the same as people who entered the U.S. legally.' Chuck Schumer in 2009, before he went left and haywire! @foxandfriends"

-- NOTE: Donald Trump donated to Chuck Schumer in December of 2009.

... at 10:08 a.m.: "The Rigged Russian Witch Hunt goes on and on as the 'originators and founders' of this scam continue to be fired and demoted for their corrupt and illegal activity. All credibility is gone from this terrible Hoax, and much more will be lost as it proceeds. No Collusion!"

... at 10:57 a.m.: "Happy Birthday to the leader of the Democrat Party, Maxine Waters!"

... at 11:04 a.m.: "Our Country was built on Tariffs, and Tariffs are now leading us to great new Trade Deals - as opposed to the horrible and unfair Trade Deals that I inherited as your President. Other Countries should not be allowed to come in and steal the wealth of our great U.S.A. No longer!"

REUTERS/MOSCOW: "Trump adviser Bolton to meet Russian officials next week: Kremlin"

MANAFORT TRIAL DAY 12 -- "'He is not above the law,' prosecution argues in closing statement," by Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Darren Samuelsohn: "Greg Andres, a prosecutor with special counsel Robert Mueller's team, repeated the word 'lie' more than a dozen times at the outset of his closing argument. ... 

"Manafort's defense will get an opportunity to present their own version of the case later Wednesday - in which they are expected to argue the prosecution failed to present evidence to convict Manafort beyond a reasonable doubt. The defense is also expected to continue to paint the prosecution's star witness, former Manafort aide Rick Gates, an admitted liar and thief." POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Investors Flock to U.S. as Washington Stirs Markets Abroad," by WSJ's Riva Gold: "U.S. foreign policy has driven sharp swings in European and Asian markets this summer, drawing investors into the safety of the U.S. It is also raising questions about how long U.S. markets can continue to outpace the rest of the world." WSJ

-- WSJ'S GREG IP: "On Turkey, Trump Turns Trade War to Financial War": "[J]ust as trade wars force others countries to seek alternatives to U.S. suppliers and customers, financial wars will encourage them to seek alternatives to the dollar. In both cases, the result will be a less integrated world and diminished American influence." WSJ

NAHAL TOOSI: "U.S. limits diplomatic tours in Cuba following mysterious illnesses": "The Trump administration is slashing the amount of time U.S. diplomats are posted in Cuba to one year, an unusually short time frame typically applied to war-torn or otherwise dangerous nations.

"The change to the 'standard tour of duty' puts Cuba in league with countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan and South Sudan. It follows a series of mysterious, seemingly sound-related injuries that have injured at least two dozen Americans who spent time in the country.

"It's also another blow to business and other groups who - despite reluctance from President Donald Trump - still hope to see U.S.-Cuban ties improve following the re-establishment of diplomatic relations during the Obama administration." POLITICO

SCOTUS WATCH -- "Two red state Democratic senators to meet with Trump's Supreme Court nominee," by CNN's Lauren Fox: "Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly -- both members who face tough re-elections this fall in states Trump handily won -- are among the first Democrats to meet with Kavanaugh." CNN

-- WAPO'S SEUNG MIN KIM (@seungminkim): "Judiciary Committee releases another 21,231 pages of Kavanaugh papers from his time as a counsel in Bush White House. So far 114,764 pages of Kavanaugh's Bush papers have been publicly released. There are about 910,000 pages in total. Confirmation hearings are 2.5 weeks away." The documents

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "Frozen Out by Obama, Hungary's Far-Right Leader Finds a Friend in Trump," by NYT's Patrick Kingsley in Budapest: "For years, [Viktor] Orban's government has craved validation from Washington, spending millions of dollars on lobbying, mostly in vain. The Obama administration largely ostracized Mr. Orban, avoiding high-level, bilateral contacts as punishment for his creeping authoritarian tendencies. ... 

"But now the Trump administration is pivoting, signaling a new engagement with Hungary, as well as nearby Poland. The shift has alarmed many campaigners for democracy and the rule of law, even as others argue that the Obama strategy of trying to isolate Mr. Orban had failed ... President Trump has made no secret of his fondness for strongman leaders, yet his praise for them has sometimes been out of step with the policies of his administration. Toward Mr. Orban, at least, American policy seems to be following Mr. Trump's lead." NYT
           
A message from AARP:

 
Learn more about the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races with the Playbook Elections event in California on Aug. 16, 2018.
         
MEGATRENDS -- "When China Rules the Web," by Adam Segal in Foreign Affairs: "[T]he Internet has long been an American project. Yet today, the United States has ceded leadership in cyberspace to China. ... Beijing has a good chance of succeeding-thereby remaking cyberspace in its own image. If this happens, the Internet will be less global and less open. ... And Beijing will reap the economic, diplomatic, national security, and intelligence benefits that once flowed to Washington." Foreign Affairs

HEADS UP -- "New Estimates Show Overdose Deaths Surpassed 72,000, a New High, in 2017," by NYT's Margot Sanger-Katz: "The death toll reflects two major factors: A growing number of Americans are using opioids, and those drugs are becoming more deadly. Experts who are closely monitoring the epidemic say the second factor most likely explains the bulk of the increased number of overdoses last year. ... 

"There are reasons for optimism that the recent increases in overdose deaths will not continue. The monthly C.D.C. numbers suggest that deaths might have begun leveling off by the end of the year. Continuing funding may help more states develop the kind of public health programs that appear to have helped in New England. ... The epidemic could also intensify again." NYT

2020 WATCH -- "2020 Presidential Candidate John Delaney's Plan Is to Be Civil. Is He Doomed?" by Washingtonian's Matthew Cooper: "Bipartisanship is the Potomac resident's brand, his mantra, his calling card. Now he's taking that to the world beyond his meandering, Montgomery County-to-West Virginia district-and doing so in a most improbable way: Delaney is the first announced Democratic presidential candidate for the 2020 election.

"He's the darkest of dark horses. That's not just because a sitting House member hasn't won the presidency since 1880 or because the Washington area has never spawned a [p]resident. Those hurdles would be tricky in any year. But at this divisive moment in political history, can a moderate even make himself heard?" Washingtonian

MEDIAWATCH -- "Harvey Levin Is Casting the TMZ Primary," by Bloomberg's Felix Gillette and Gerry Smith: "Levin's chumminess with Trump was hardly a secret to TMZ's staff. ... TMZ's coverage has since become more critical. According to the two former editorial staffers, sometime around the start of 2018 the restrictions on anti-Trump stories mysteriously loosened. ... [N]ot long ago Levin and Trump talked on the phone regularly. But they had a falling-out over the president's repeated efforts to ban transgender troops from serving in the U.S. military ... 

"As TMZ's field producers make their rounds, they frequently question celebrities about the 2020 presidential prospects of their peers, including Oprah Winfrey, Mark Cuban, Kanye West, and Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson. ... For now, the Kardashian-Jenners appear to be the front-runner in TMZ's celebrity president horse race." Bloomberg

-- "Russian Trolls Amped Up Tweets for Pro-Trump Website's Content," by Bloomberg's Ben Elgin: "Russia's social-media trolling operation began stepping up its Twitter presence to new heights in late July 2017 -- more than eight months after sowing discord and disinformation in the 2016 presidential election.

"The burst of activity -- revealed in a new, comprehensive dataset of nearly 3 million tweets -- had an overriding focus over the ensuing three months: popularizing headlines and news stories that were originally authored by a U.S.-based news site called Truthfeed that supports President Donald Trump and specializes in hyper-partisan, factually incorrect stories." Bloomberg

-- Emily Holden is joining The Guardian in Washington to cover energy and climate. She is currently an energy reporter at POLITICO Pro. 

TRANSITIONS -- Bishop Garrison will be managing director of policy and advocacy at the Truman National Security Project. He is a Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Department of Homeland Security alum. He replaces Leigh O'Neill, who will become chief of staff of Bloomberg Philanthropies' Government Innovation Program in New York.
           
A message from AARP:

 
The Playbook Elections event in California on Aug. 16, 2018 will feature interviews with candidates and party leaders on issues that matter most to voters.
                        
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