Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Preprimary report roundup for big AZ, FL House races — Could the GOP’s campaign against Obamacare backfire? — Google releases database of online ad spending
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2018 08:03:00 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/17/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
PRE-PRIMARY REPORT TIME - We're 11 days away from big House primaries in Arizona and Florida, meaning pre-primary FEC reports are all in. These reports cover campaign activity from the end of the second quarter (July 1) through Aug. 8 - about one-third of the third quarter. Senate candidates are not required to file digitally, so their reports are not immediately available. 
 
AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran raised $145,000, spent $115,000 and has $1.2 million cash on hand. ... Republican Wendy Rogers raised $90,000 and spent $302,000, with $69,000 cash on hand. Republican Tiffany Shedd raised $32,000 and spent $227,000 with $50,000 cash on hand. Republican Steve Smith raised $37,000, spent $140,000 and has $155,000 cash on hand.
 
AZ-02: Former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick raised $186,000 and spent $687,000 with $336,000 cash on hand. Democrat Matt Heinz raised $36,000 and spent $453,000, with $77,000 cash on hand. As of Friday morning, Republican Lea Marquez Peterson's pre-primary filing was not posted on the FEC website.
 
AZ-09: Democrat Greg Stanton raised $150,000 and spent $105,000. He has $1.2 million cash on hand. Republican Steve Ferrara raised $59,000, spent $232,000 and has $561,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-05: Democratic Rep. Al Lawson raised $48,000, spent $136,000 and has $131,000 cash on hand. His primary opponent Alvin Brown raised $56,000 and spent $116,000 with $84,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg raised $238,000, spent $123,000 and has $1.1 million cash on hand. Democrat Stephen Sevigny raised $269,000, spent $281,000 and has $354,000 cash on hand. Democrat John Upchurch raised $26,000, spent $66,000 and has $131,000 cash on hand. Republican Michael Waltz raised $55,000, spent $385,000 and has $287,000 cash on hand. Republican John Ward raised $25,000, spent $415,000 and has $77,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-07: Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy raised $150,000 spent $152,000 and has $1.6 million cash on hand. Republican Scott Sturgill raised $36,000, spent $226,000 and has $147,000 cash on hand. Republican Mike Miller raised $23,000, spent $170,000 and has $233,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-09: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto raised $154,000, spent $493,000 and has $252,000 cash on hand. Former Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson raised $180,000, spent $86,000 and has $771,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-16: Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan raised $90,000 and spent $456,000. He has $2.1 million cash on hand. Democrat David Shapiro raised $247,000, spent $592,000 and has $440,000 cash on hand. 
 
FL-18: Republican Rep. Brian Mast raised $296,000, spent $482,000 and has $1.8 million cash on hand. Democrat Lauren Baer raised $273,000 and spent $416,000 with $897,000 cash on hand. Democrat Pam Keith raised $55,000, spent $65,000 with $59,000 cash on hand.
 
FL-26: Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo raised $162,000 and spent $167,000 with $2.6 million cash on hand. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raised $222,000, spent $254,000 and has $1.2 million cash on hand.
 
FL-27: Democrat Donna Shalala raised $771,000, spent $747,000 and has $1.1 million cash on hand. Democrat David Richardson raised $365,000, spent $560,000 and has $566,000 cash on hand. Democrat Matt Haggman raised $68,000, spent $298,000 and has $515,000 cash on hand. Democrat Kristen Rosen Gonzalez raised $19,000, spent $72,000 and has $29,000 cash on hand. Republican Maria Elvira Salazar raised $39,000, spent $386,000 and has $231,000 cash on hand. Republican Bruno Barreiro raised $50 and spent $33,000. He has $147,000 cash on hand.
 
Good Friday morning. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
What is it really like for women hitting the campaign trail in 2018? Beginning on Wednesday, Aug. 15, Women Rule's three-part podcast series entitled "Women Rule: Tracking the candidates," will focus on the gritty realities of running for office. Tune in for the next three Wednesdays in August to hear from three women running for office, the challenges and opportunities they face and the lessons other women can take from their campaigns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 81.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 21: Alaska, Wyoming primaries. - Aug. 28: Arizona, Florida primaries and Oklahoma primary runoffs. - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT IT TOO - POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Republicans are still campaigning against [Obamacare], arguing a strong election result will allow them one more shot at repealing the Affordable Care Act with GOP majorities in both chambers. And many high-profile Senate GOP candidates support a lawsuit that would scuttle Obamacare if successful in the nation's courts, a case that will be heard by a federal judge in September. Yet at the same time Republicans are still touting the law's most popular provisions, arguing that after it is struck down they will be able to preserve protections for pre-existing conditions by passing a new bill. GOP challengers in four of the most
 competitive Senate races support the lawsuit. ...
 
"The problem? Congress has shown no ability to pass new health care legislation under Republican rule or work across party lines, raising severe doubts that the GOP would be able to fulfill its promises to both kill the law and maintain its popular provisions. In interviews, several GOP senators said the party is unprepared to act if the GOP lawsuit, which is supported by the Trump administration, is successful. ... The lawsuit is animating Democratic campaigns, with vulnerable incumbent senators calling out Republicans as defending pieces of Obamacare while effectively rooting for its failure."
 
MORE RED TO BLUE ADDS - The DCCC added six more candidates to its "Red to Blue" program, its designation for the most competitive races, bringing the total to 73. The adds include CT-05's Jahana Hayes, MN-08's Joe Radinovich, OH-12's Danny O'Connor (who is running in the general election after what looks to be a narrow loss in a special election earlier this month), PA-10's George Scott, SC-01's Joe Cunningham and WA-08's Kim Schrier. 
 
WEB WARS - Google released an online dashboard tracking political advertising on its popular Google Ads Services platform, following in the footsteps of Twitter and Facebook. Some quick takeaways from the new data: Since May 31, the president's reelection committee has spent the most out of any individual advertiser at $629,500. One Nation - the outside group aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell - is in second with $440,300, followed by Planned Parenthood at $341,600. GOP Gov. Rick Scott's campaign for Senate in Florida has spent the most out of any individual candidate up in the midterms at $324,300. Democrats' House Majority PAC spent $287,800 and Priorities USA/Senate
 Majority PAC spent $245,400. The NRCC spent $204,100, the right-leaning American Action Network spent $202,600, Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity spent $149,700 and the NRSC spent $144,400. The DCCC has spent $7,500 (it says this total only includes ads that mention candidates, leaving out GOTV or email-acquisition ads), while the DSCC did not show up in the database (a DSCC aide said the total is not accurate and "we've flagged the issue for Google").
 
The results can be sorted by state: Florida is the only state that has seen at least $1 million in ads since May 31. On the district level, OH-12 has seen $246,300 since Google started tracking the data.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Congressional Leadership Fund, the outside group tied to House GOP leadership, is going up with its first television ad in Minnesota's 8th District, the rare district where Republicans are hoping to play offense this cycle. The ad hits Radinovich for wanting to raise taxes and says he "was cited 30 times for not paying court fines." The CLF reserved at least $294,000 in cable airtime in the district from Aug. 17 to Sept. 18, according to Advertising Analytics.
 
WAIT AND SEE - After an uproar in some Democratic circles when former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) was hustled out of office after allegations of sexual misconduct, Democrats are treading carefully after allegations of abuse against Rep. Keith Ellison, the deputy chair of the DNC and nominee for Minnesota attorney general. The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "For now, at least, Rep. Keith Ellison's fellow Democrats have taken a wait-and-see approach following allegations he was abusive toward a now-former girlfriend, an accusation that went public just days before he won the party's nomination for Minnesota attorney general in November. ... So far no congressional Democrat has called for a House
 Ethics Committee investigation into Ellison, instead settling for the somewhat vague DNC 'review' of the situation. ... The difference between the two cases illustrates just how inconsistent the approaches have been to allegations of inappropriate sexual behavior with members of Congress."
 
- Karen Monahan, Ellison's former girlfriend who made the accusations, gave her first on-camera interview to CBS News. She said the video she had of the alleged abuse is on a thumb drive that was misplaced.
 
HELLER'S PATH TO VICTORY - Nevada Sen. Dean Heller is the most endangered Republican on the map, locked in a tight race with Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen. And that's just how he likes it. The Washington Examiner's Al Weaver: "'I'm used to rough cycles, and this is going to be a rough cycle too,' Heller said in an hourlong interview over lunch. 'If I have to be in a Senate race, I want to be the race. I want to be the race. I love the attention. My chances of winning are better if this is the race.' ... For Heller, his goal for the campaign cycle is to keep the focus on Nevada, something he realizes is a tall task in a hypernationalized political climate. He is intent on selling local issues."
 
SWING AND A MISS - GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein has not had much luck picking the winning horse. Bloomberg's John McCormick: Uihlein "has amassed one of the worst track records among mega-donors in recent years when it comes to backing winning candidates. ... So far this election cycle, he ranks third nationally in contributions from individuals to outside groups such as super political action committees, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics." His track record this cycle includes backing WI-Sen's Kevin Nicholson, AL-Sen's Roy Moore and an unsuccessful primary challenger to Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner.
 
- Uihlein and billionaire Robert Mercer also collectively gave $1.25 million to a super PAC that was supposed to kickstart Chris McDaniel's Mississippi Senate bid, with little apparent success. AP's Brian Slodysko: "A year later, much of the money from Illinois shipping supply CEO Richard Uihlein and New York financier Robert Mercer is gone. Only a fraction was spent reaching voters who could boost the former state lawmaker's uphill battle. ... What the Remember Mississippi super PAC has provided, however, is a generous payday for at least 18 campaign consultants who received the lion's share of the money, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission records."
 
A QUOTE YOU PROBABLY WANT BACK - Republican Rep. Andy Barr is locked in a tight battle with Democrat Amy McGrath in KY-06 that's drawn a lot of national attention. McGrath is drawing on her background as a former fighter pilot and is promising that she'd be independent minded in Washington. Barr, meanwhile, is leaning on his roots in the district and GOP policies. And in a quote he'll probably want back, he compared his time as a politician to McGrath's military background. "We both served our country," Barr said to The New York Times' Michael Tackett. "I've served in a position where ideas matter. My opponent has served her country in the military, where execution matters."
 
TIME FOR SOME GAME THEORY - The new argument du jour among Trump allies? Lose the battle (the House in the midterms), win the war (Trump's 2020 reelection). POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago: "While Trump supporters around Washington acknowledge that the idea is merely in the conversation stage - and stress it's too early for contingency plans, particularly any involving the president - some have come to see losing the House as inevitable, and they want to see the president spend his time campaigning hard to keep the Senate. Proponents of the go-for-broke scenario argue that Trump's at his best when his back is against the wall, and that a move to impeach would both rally the base and make
 the president sympathetic to moderate voters."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We have the same number of Super Bowl championships as you," Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), responding to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) pointing out that South Dakota doesn't have an NFL team.
 
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