Subject: This Time Might be Different: EconVue Spotlight August 18, 2018
From: "Ying Zhan" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2018 18:27:17 -0700 (PDT)

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Target URL: http://www.econvue.com
 
EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Over the years, I have been fortunate to attend many global economic 
gatherings, from Davos to the G7, APEC to the IMF/World Bank meetings, 
and Jackson Hole, which takes place this week and will focus on Changing 
Market Structure &amp; Implications for Monetary Policy

https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/newsroom/2018/pressrelease_jacksonhole18.pdf

. However, the meeting I have probably enjoyed most of all happened in a 
more rustic setting, in the back beyond of Maine earlier this month. I 
am speaking of course of Camp Kotok, run for many years by David Kotok, 
founder of Cumberland Advisors.

A gathering of sixty or so economists, financial journalists, and asset 
managers, it is a 4-day fishing trip with benefits . Everyone is asked 
to contribute a minimum of six bottles of wine-you can do the math. The 
setting, and blessed lack of Internet connectivity, allow for a lot of 
conversation on topics large and small-small being the size of the three 
fish I caught, which were delicious. The Chatham House Rule applies at 
Camp Kotok, but what did I learn from my fellow participants?

Most were optimistic, but worried about the lack of wage growth, student 
debt, and housing prices in a higher interest rate environment. China is 
a key concern, and we had a debate about whether a trade deal was in the 
offing. Not many are into cryptocurrencies, but understand that Fintech 
is unstoppable.

In terms of shop talk, I got tips for my upcoming podcast series from 
true professionals. For those of us who sell independent research, 
recent EU mandated rules have made us rethink our business models. Mfid 
II

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was created to protect investors, but could have the perverse effect of 
giving their advisors less access to contrarian or specialist points of 
view.

In addition to an interview at Camp Kotok with Dr Judith Monroe of the 
CDC Foundation, several key articles might merit your attention and are 
listed below. The Department of Defense document on China's military and 
security challenge, Adam Tooze's new book and interpretation of the long 
lasting effects of the Global Financial Crisis, and Adam Segal in 
Foreign Affairs on the Chinese Web are all must reads.

Our EconVue experts weigh in as well, as many of us are asking if this 
time is really different. As Christina Romer and George Romer wrote late 
last year Sometimes Are Different

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. The subtext: How long can these halcyon good times last? We will be 
looking for signals from Jackson Hole next weekend. I will be watching 
for the discussion of large firms

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.3.113

and their influence on pricing power, labor costs and productivity.

Enjoy the rest of the summer!

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RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

The Yield Curve: It Really Is Different This Time

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/yield-curve-it-really-different-time

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

This time is different. That sentence raises a red flag, justifiably, in 
almost any context. However, there are some instances when things really 
are different. FMI believes that is the case now with the 
narrow-to-inverting yield curve(s). It does not mean what it used to, 
quite probably.

Will US-China Trade War Reshape Global Value Chains?

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/will-us-china-trade-war-reshape-global-value-chains

Xi Sun

https://www.econvue.com/experts/xi-sun

China says the United States has waged a trade war, while America's 
intelligence agency is now terming it as a China-led cold war. 
Nevertheless, the trade brouhaha continues. Trumponomics ceases to be 
rhetoric anymore, and Xinomics is candidly reciprocal. In fact, neither 
country is striving for autarky, nor is the situation as grim as it was 
in the 1930s. Yet the present scenario is destined to reach alarming 
proportions, as its spillover effect has begun to deter the global value 
chains (GVCs) that perennially define the geo-economic architecture of 
international business today.

Belts &amp; Suspenders: Major Healthcare Transactions Position Companies 
for Whatever Comes Next

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/belts-suspenders-major-healthcare-transactions-position-companies-whatever-comes-next

David W. Johnson

https://www.econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

Americans prefer clean revolutions with clear-cut winners and losers. 
Unfortunately, there's enormous uncertainty about the pace, scale, and 
distribution of U.S. healthcare's revolutionary transformation. In 
response, established health companies are getting bigger to withstand 
competitive pressures, gain capabilities and reconfigure business 
models.

US Smart to Assist Latin America With Democratic Governance

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/us-smart-assist-latin-america-democratic-governance

R. Evan Ellis

https://www.econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Dr. Ellis' latest article on making the case for US policymakers to use 
"democratic governance" as an orienting strategic concept for engagement 
with Latin America.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

U.S.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

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Fareed Zakaria 8/10/2018 New York Times

Excellent review of Adam Tooze's new book Crashed

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which highlights Europe's role in the Great Financial Crisis. In 2006, 
European banks generated a third of America's riskiest privately issued 
mortgage-backed securities. By 2007, two-thirds of commercial paper 
issued was sponsored by a European financial entity. Not enough on 
significant changes in technology over the past ten years, but great on 
the interplay between the crisis and ensuing global political changes.

The Fnancial&nbsp;Crisis cost every American $70,000, Fed study says

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Jeanna Smialek 8/13/2018 Bloomberg

So if we are having below trend growth over this past decade, why are we 
worried about overheating? Here is the original San Francisco Fed letter 
The Financial Crisis at Ten: Will We Ever Recover?

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( Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes, and Alexander Ziegenbein) 

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Monetary policy: Some fairly recent should and must reads&nbsp;

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8/17/2018 Bradford DeLong Blog 

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More than a weekend's reading...but even a glance at this list and 
DeLong's comments will gives one a sense of unease about the high level 
of disagreement on inputs to Fed policy such as employment, wages, and 
inflation. 

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Independent workers and the modern labor market

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Jay Shambaugh, Ryan Nunn, and Lauren Bauer 6/7/2018 Brookings Institute

The technological infrastructure behind the gig economy.

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Walmart bounces back with best sales in more than a decade

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Matthew Boyle 8/16/2018 Bloomberg

Even in the face of Amazon's dominance in ecommerce, bricks & mortar 
retail still has a place in our economy. But will this bounce derail in 
the second half of the year?

The Biggest Risks That Companies Will Face in the Second Half of 2018

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Ryan Vlastelica, 8/17/2018 Marketwatch

Logistics costs are already rising, commodities are expected to be more 
expensive due to tariffs, and everyone is waiting for the other shoe to 
drop on wages. Can US corporates sustain profitability?

World

Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation &amp; David Kotok explore Zika &amp; 
other

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(video)

Camp Kotok 8/17/2018 Cumberland Advisors

The CDC Foundation is another example of a public-private partnership 
intended to fill gaps in global public health, especially in times of 
crisis. I continue to believe that the biggest and most devastating 
event we are underestimating is a global pandemic.

This chart shows what $63 trillion of world debt looks like

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Jeff Desjardins 5/8/2018 World Economic Forum

Sovereign debt is a more manageable problem than private debt. Global 
government borrowing is less than 1x annual global GDP, which is about 
$80 trillion. Non-bank foreign corporate dollar-denominated debt is 
$11.2T according to Valentina Bruno at American University, and could be 
a more vulnerable point of stress as the dollar strengthens and interest 
rates rise.

Turkey matters, it doesn't matter&nbsp;

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(Twitter thread)

Josh Brown, Ritholtz Wealth Management @reformedbroker 8/10/2018

After reading both sides in this thread I think it depends on the reason 
for the Turkish crisis. Do the same conditions apply to other emerging 
markets? Does Turkey at 1% of global GDP matter? Or by tradition will it 
be immune from default because it hosts a US military base?

Iran sanctions at the halfway point

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Andrew Stanley, Sarah Ladislaw & Frank Verrastro 8/8/2018 CSIS

The 180-day wind down period to cut business ties with Iran ends Nov 
4th, two days before midterm elections in the US.

Mind the gap:&nbsp;Differing perspectives of men and women economists 
may affect policy outcomes

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Ann Mari May, David Kucera, and Mary G. McGarvey 6/2018 International 
Monetary Fund

I'm not sure this isn't due to small sample size.

China

Military and security developments involving the People's Republic of 
China 2018

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Department of Defense 5/16/2018

The real question in US-China relations is the relative importance of 
trade to defense. Reading this DOD report on China to Congress, I'd be 
overweight defense, which means more time to resolution. The US-Japan 
trade war lasted 10 years—and we were allies.

When China rules the Web

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Adam Segal 8/14/2018 Foreign Affairs

Almost 20 years ago, I asked a dinner group at Davos the most surprising 
thing they could imagine about the future of the Internet. Dell CEO 
Michael Dell said it would become predominantly Chinese, and he was 
right.

Navigating China's savings surplus

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Joergen Oerstroem Moeller 8/10/2018 OMIFF

Is China running out of money for foreign expansion?

Should the US and China give up on a deal

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Derek Scissors 8/6/2018 AEI.org

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NAFTA seems more likely to happen than a US-China trade deal before the 
mid-term elections. The Chinese announced renewed negotiations would 
begin in late August, but will there be a real deal by the midterms?

Is China running out of money for foreign expansion?

Google employees demand more oversight of China search engine plan

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Joseph Menn & Paresh Dave 08/16/18 Reuters

Google employees pushing back on the company's venture with the Chinese 
government to create a censored search engine. This follows Google's 
internal backlash not too long ago to the discovery that the company was 
working with the Pentagon on drone targeting systems.

Why other countries are giving China a licence to print money

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Stephen Chen 8/13/2018 South China Morning Post

China now prints money for a host of other countries along the Belt & 
Road and has "successfully won contracts for currency production 
projects in a number of countries including Thailand, Bangladesh, Sri 
Lanka, Malaysia, India, Brazil & Poland". Yes, rupees are made in China.

FinTech

Why the ICE/Bakkt news makes some crypto investors nervous

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Caitlin Long 8/10/2018 Laura Shin Podcast

Smart analysis of why the recent entry of Wall Street and the CME into 
the crypto space could be depressing prices. Securitization of bitcoin, 
which can't really be securitized, has long-term market consequences & 
creates new systemic risks where none previously existed.

Coinbase says it was signing up 50,000 users a day

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Olga Kharif 8/14/2018 Bloomberg Video

By the end of last year, Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange, was 
signing up 50,000 users a day. Point of comparison: Facebook signs up 
500,000 new users each day, worldwide.

Central banks' responses to e-money

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(Twitter thread)

@TuurDemeester

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8/10/2018

Central banks around the world will have varying responses to 
cryptocurrencies. Policies will not be uniform.

Chicago

Why Chicago is the best answer to Amazon's talent challenge

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John Pletz 8/17/2018 Crain's Chicago Business

Are we just whistling Dixie here?

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
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