Subject: Playbook PM: What a difference a few months make for the GOP
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2018 10:54:12 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by ExxonMobil: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Aug 22, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman and Eli Okun 
         
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THE STEP BACK ... EARLIER THIS YEAR -- hell, earlier this month -- many top House Republicans were certain they would buck the 80-year political trend of losing the control of the chamber in the president's first midterm election. Why? The economy was ticking, tax cuts were marginally popular and the party had such strong institutional advantages in the national map. 

BUT HERE WE ARE ... Two House Republicans have been indicted this month. One of them -- Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) -- is refusing to step off his committees, which will force an embarrassing vote on the House floor for Republicans to remove him.

TWO OF THE PRESIDENT'S former close advisers are on the brink of serving jail time -- or turning on the president. TRUMP is defending Paul Manafort, which has raised fears he'll pardon his former campaign chairman -- something Republicans are extremely frightened about. 

THE ECONOMY IN KEY PARTS of the country is in trouble, due to the threat of tariffs. Democrats are vastly out-fundraising the GOP. A government shutdown is a real possibility at the end of next month. And the White House is going to wait until after Labor Day to make any plans about how it might try to help House Republicans. 

BY THE WAY ... IT'S ONLY AUGUST. The election isn't for another 76 days. 

CONSIDER THIS ... The question everyone is asking is will Democrats impeach Trump if they take the House majority. There will be intense pressure in the liberal wing of House Democrats to move swiftly and start proceedings as soon as possible. The more likely scenario -- and what Democratic leaders want -- is for the committees to start oversight investigations, and when they get word from the Mueller world, they'll make a determination about impeachment. 

-- EVERYTHING we hear from Democrats is that oversight is going to be a major part of their majority. CNN'S PHIL MATTINGLY has a letter from Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, asking for Michael Cohen to testify. 

DAVE WASSERMAN SPEAKS ... Cook Political Report moved Alaska Rep. Don Young's race from solid Republican to likely Republican. Young is the dean of the House. He also moved Iowa Rep. Steve King's race from solid Republican to likely Republican. And he moved Hunter's seat from solid Republican to lean Republican.

SIREN -- SOME BAD NEWS FOR DEMS ... QUINNIPIAC has New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez up only six points, 43-37, over Republican challenger Bob Hugin.

-- HUGIN has been up on TV for a while, chipping away at Menendez.

ALERT ... SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS is briefing at 2:15 p.m.

BREAKING -- "DNC calls FBI after detecting attempt to hack its voter database," by CNN's Donie O'Sullivan: "The DNC was alerted in the early hours of Tuesday morning by a cloud service provider and a security research firm that a fake login page had been created in an attempt to gather usernames and passwords that would allow access to the party's database, the source said.

"The page was designed to look like the access page Democratic Party officials and campaigns across the country use to log into a service called Votebuilder, which hosts the database, the source said, adding the DNC believed it was designed to trick people into handing over their login details.

"The source said the DNC is investigating who may have been responsible for the attempted attack, but that it has no reason to believe its voter file was accessed or altered." CNN

Good Wednesday afternoon. Arlington National Cemetery was evacuated for a bomb threat this morning. The cemetery is closed to the public for the rest of the day but open for funeral services.

TRADE WARS -- "'We're the ones it's going to hurt': Trump tariffs fuel angst in Trump country," by Ben White and Jenny Ament in Farrell, Pennsylvania: "[P]atience is quickly running thin at places like NLMK [Pennsylvania], which buys steel on the world market. Company president and CEO Bob Miller said NLMK has paid an extra $100 million since Trump's 25 percent tariffs on imported steel went into effect. He says he can't buy the steel slabs he needs from domestic sources. And that means higher prices for his customers and ultimately consumers. His pleas to the Commerce Department for an exemption have so far come to nothing." POLITICO ... The POLITICO Money podcast
       
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2018 WATCH -- "Bredesen fights against red wave in Tennessee," by James Arkin in Kimball, Tennessee: "Bredesen wouldn't say whether or not he would back Schumer as leader. He dismissed the notion that he would be beholden to anyone, and questioned the effectiveness of using Schumer as a bogeyman, saying he's not as polarizing as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. At a candidate forum in Nashville last week hosted by the local Chamber of Commerce, Bredesen acknowledged most people in the crowd were probably Republicans. But he said he viewed the Democratic Party as an organization, 'not a religion.'

"Some Republicans worry that simply polarizing the race around control of the Senate isn't enough, given Bredesen's deep well of support." POLITICO

-- CASH DASH: "In Many Close House Races, Democrats Are Outraising Republicans," by NYT's Rachel Shorey and Audrey Carlsen: "Democratic candidates have outraised their Republican competitors in 22 of 47 competitive House seats that Republicans must defend in the general election in November." NYT

FOR IVANKA AND JARED ... BURGESS EVERETT: "Senate won't take up prison overhaul before midterms": "Though advocates in the White House and outside groups are pressing for last-minute action, the proposal splits Republicans. And with a packed schedule of spending bills and nominations, Republicans have no desire to enter an intraparty feud before the election." POLITICO

EZRA KLEIN: "Donald Trump's winning argument in 2016 is his key weakness in 2020: Tuesday showed how corruption might cost Trump his reelection": Vox

MORE ON THE COHEN CASE -- RYAN LIZZA in Esquire, "Dirty Business: In Lanny Davis, Michael Cohen Has the da Vinci of Spin": "Davis didn't realize then that taking on Cohen as a client would test everything he thought he knew about crisis management. He told me that Cohen is the toughest assignment he's ever had. Could someone like Cohen, who is despised by the anti-Trump Left for his years of suspect service to the president, distrusted by reporters for his threats and bullying over the years, and now under fire from Trump supporters, even be rehabilitated?

"Ever since Clinton's impeachment, Davis has used a mantra to describe his theory of crisis management: 'Tell it early, tell it all, tell it yourself.' He spends a lot of his time convincing clients that negative stories will be written anyway, so it's better to influence them through cooperation rather than stonewall." Esquire

-- "Cohen won't accept pardon from Trump, attorney says," by Stephanie Murray: POLITICO

-- SEN. @maziehirono: "I have cancelled my meeting with Judge Kavanaugh. @realDonaldTrump, who is an unindicted co-conspirator in a criminal matter, does not deserve the courtesy of a meeting with his nominee-purposely selected to protect, as we say in Hawaii, his own okole."

THE PRESIDENT at 8:44 a.m.: "If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don't retain the services of Michael Cohen!"

... at 9:21 a.m.: "I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. 'Justice' took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to 'break' -- make up stories in order to get a 'deal.' Such respect for a brave man!"

... at 9:34 a.m.: "A large number of counts, ten, could not even be decided in the Paul Manafort case. Witch Hunt!"

... at 9:37 a.m.: "Michael Cohen plead guilty to two counts of campaign finance violations that are not a crime. President Obama had a big campaign finance violation and it was easily settled!"

... at 11:05 a.m.: "Everyone in the path of #HurricaneLane please prepare yourselves, heed the advice of State and local officials, and follow @NWSHonolulu for updates. Be safe!"

TOP TWEET -- @maggieNYT: "When Trump is cornered, he is at his most dangerous, as several people close to him have said. During 'Access Hollywood' weekend, he was wounded and he behaved as if he had nothing to lose. This is a different order of magnitude, touching on his business and potentially family."

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... "The Absolute Soviet Man: A Portrait of Konstantin Kilimnik, Russian patriot and Paul Manafort's buddy," by Maria Zholobova and Roman Badanin in The Project (Proekt), a new Russian investigative outlet: "The Project has found that Kilimnik worked with Paul Manafort not only in Ukraine but also in Kyrgyzstan. There they worked for Russia's foreign policy interests, and reportedly part of this work was paid by the company of billionaire Oleg Deripaska, who is on the US sanctions list. ...

"Does Kilimnik's move to Russia mean that he's a Russian spy, as he himself once said? The Project discovered previously unknown facts about Kilimnik's career that indicate he was always much more connected with Russian state interests than it appeared." Proekt

WSJ'S GREG IP: "For U.S. to Stay in WTO, China May Have to Leave": "No country has left the WTO, much less been expelled. Putting together a case would take a long time and require the U.S. to work with allies it has alienated with tariffs. The Trump administration has little love for the WTO and has reportedly weighed withdrawal ... Yet some administration officials are willing to entertain this strategy." WSJ

WHAT JOHN BOLTON IS UP TO -- "U.S. Vows to Grant Few Waivers on Iran Sanctions," by WSJ's Felicia Schwartz in Jerusalem: WSJ

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- @RichardHaass: "I understand the focus on politics here at home, but 1) NK is not denuclearizing; 2) Venezuela is on the precipice; 3) a crisis with/over Iran is brewing; 4) climate change is worse sooner than predicted; 5) U.S. relations w/ China and Russia are at post-Cold War nadir. just sayin'."

MEDIAWATCH -- Megha Rajagopalan, BuzzFeed's China bureau chief, was denied a new long-term visa by China and has to leave the country. She has reported aggressively on China's treatment of its Muslim ethnic minorities. Rajagopalan will now cover human rights and technology from the Middle East and elsewhere.

-- "World News Tonight's David Muir Wants to Earn Your Trust, One Broadcast at a Time," by Time's Karl Vick: "Before mainstream media became an epithet, nightly newscasts helped define the nation that gathered to watch them. Muir senses that they still can, judging by the reaction to segments of his show like 'America Strong.'

"'It basically just puts a spotlight on ordinary people doing extraordinary things,' he says. 'And I can't tell you how often I hear from people who say that moment is for them right now the most important part of the newscast.'" Time

-- "Apple Buys Rights to Series Based on New York Times Climate Change Article," by NYT's Brooks Barnes: NYT ... The original story

-- POLITICO Pro announced several new hires: Alice Ollstein as a health care reporter, Rebecca Rainey as an employment and immigration reporter and Ryan McCrimmon as an agriculture reporter. Ollstein previously worked for Talking Points Memo, Rainey for Inside OSHA and McCrimmon for CQ.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- KIM GHATTAS, a senior visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is working on a new book for Henry Holt about the "impact of the year 1979 and the Iran revolution on the wider Arab and Muslim world, looking at how it unleashed the Saudi-Iran rivalry which produced social and cultural changes over forty years, including and leading up to today's sectarian bloodshed," she told us. Ghattas, on leave from the BBC, is the author of "The Secretary" about Hillary Clinton and American power. 

REMEMBERING MARY MCGRORY -- The Washington Post columnist and Pulitzer Prize winner Mary McGrory would have turned 100 today. A remembrance from her nephew Tom Beatty

SPOTTED: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) yesterday at Capital Grille. Pic

TRANSITIONS -- Kolo Rathburn is now director of federal legislative affairs at the Commerce Department. He was previously at the Senate Appropriations Committee. ... Samantha Ravich has been appointed as vice chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board. She is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Wes Duncan, GOP nominee for Nevada Attorney General and current U.S. Air Force Reserve JAG, and Jennifer Duncan, welcomed Ruth Abigail. Pic

-- AIPAC's Natalie Lascar and Jay Lefkowitz, senior group strategy manager at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center, welcomed Matan Mordechai Lefkowitz.

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, who's nearing completion of the requirements for his private pilot's license. A fun fact about Tim: "I was born and raised in Hardin, Montana, near the Crow Indian Reservation. In 2016, it was one of the greatest honors in my life when I was formally adopted into the Crow Tribe. I was given the name 'Spiritual Runner' by my Crow family." Q&A 
       
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