Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Polls show tight races in several Senate elections — Trump to rally in Indiana next week — Election security update
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2018 08:04:32 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/23/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new poll finds a surprisingly tight race in New Jersey. Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is leading Republican challenger Bob Hugin 43 percent to 37 percent in a poll from Quinnipiac University. Forty-nine percent of New Jersey voters surveyed say Menendez, who saw his corruption case end in a mistrial in 2017, was involved in serious wrongdoing, including a plurality of Democrats. The live caller poll was in the field from Aug. 15-20 and interviewed 908 New Jersey voters.
 
- Texas also has a surprisingly tight Senate race. In an NBC/Marist poll, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. The live caller survey contacted 759 registered voters and was in the field from Aug. 12-16.
 
- Both the Senate and gubernatorial races in Wisconsin are tight. A Marquette University Law School poll has Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Leah Vukmir 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, while Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Tony Evers are tied at 46 percent each, with Libertarian Phil Anderson getting 6 percent. Among all registered voters, Baldwin leads Vukmir 51 percent to 43 percent and Walker leads Evers 46 percent to 44 percent, with Anderson getting 7 percent. The poll was in the field from Aug. 15-19, with 800 registered voters including 601 likely voters.
 
- And in Minnesota, Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans in both Senate elections and the gubernatorial race. A live caller poll from Suffolk University found DFLer Sen. Amy Klobuchar leading Republican Jim Newberger 54 percent to 34 percent. In the Senate special election, incumbent DFL Sen. Tina Smith leads Republican Karin Housley 44 percent to 37 percent. And in the gubernatorial race, DFL Rep. Tim Walz leads Republican Jeff Johnson 46 percent to 41 percent. The poll was in the field from Aug. 17-20 and surveyed 500 likely voters.
 
Good Thursday morning. Congrats to TX-32's Colin Allred, who is expecting a baby with his wife Aly this winter. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 75.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 28: Arizona, Florida primaries and Oklahoma primary runoffs. - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
YOUNG GUNS ADD - The NRCC added Republican Steve Watkins in KS-02 to the "Contenders" phase of its Young Guns battleground program. It is the second tier of the program.
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - President Donald Trump will headline a rally for Republican Mike Braun in Evansville, Ind., on Aug. 30.
 
- Donald Trump Jr. will headline the Pennsylvania GOP's annual fall dinner. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Trump Jr. will appear at the dinner and fundraiser in Hershey on Sept. 21, a source close to Trump Jr. confirmed. Tickets range from $10,000 to sponsor a table of 10 to the VIP reception and dinner to $150 for admission to the general reception and dinner."
 
SWAMP TALES - America First Action, the president's official super PAC, filed an updated FEC report Wednesday showing it received $500,000 earlier this year from Randy Perkins - who was a DCCC-favored, failed House candidate in 2016. That makes Perkins one of the top contributors to the pro-Trump group this election cycle. (He has also been a major contribution to Florida Gov. Rick Scott and other Republicans in the past.) The super PAC's initial report showed the money coming from Perkins' disaster-relief firm, AshBritt - which sparked an FEC complaint calling the donation a "brazen violation" of a ban on campaign giving by federal contractors, Roll Call reported earlier this month.
 
- Perkins, who poured over $10 million into a losing bid for FL-18 last cycle, was added to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" list months before a contested Democratic primary. Perkins' giving to Republican governors and members of Congress was an issue in the primary, but he defended it by telling the Palm Beach Post it was "my job to know every governor in this country" and the donations were about "build[ing] relationships."
 
ELECTION SECURITY UPDATE - An election security bill in the Senate has come off the rails. POLITICO's Eric Geller and Martin Matishak: "A dispute over the Secure Elections Act boiled down to whether Congress should compel more states to use paper-based audits - a safeguard that election integrity advocates say would help ensure vote tallies weren't tampered with or altered. The delay by the Senate Rules Committee angered Senate Democrats who said the bill is critically important for states to have the necessary safeguards in place to protect elections from foreign interference. ...
 
"A Senate aide told POLITICO that the Rules Committee postponed the markup after hearing from state election officials who didn't want stringent audit requirements. Their concerns jeopardized Republican support for the bill. 'In recent days, individual Secretaries of State, including the Vermont Secretary of State, who currently serves as president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, have expressed concerns about certain provisions in the Secure Elections Act,' said the aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, who represents the battleground Colorado 6th District, is positioning himself to the right of the president on immigration. The Washington Post's David Weigel and Mike DeBonis: Coffman "told voters last week the president 'probably has a more generous plan for DACA than I would [propose]' and it might be time to 'transition to zero tolerance' when it came to overall immigration policy. ... Earlier this year, Coffman came out strongly against Trump's 'zero tolerance' border enforcement policy that resulted in the jailing and separation of migrant families and endorsed a bill from Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) to address the problem. But
 Coffman's remarks, a recording of which was provided to The Washington Post, demonstrate the difficulties that come with navigating immigration policy as a Republican who sometimes crosses Trump."
 
DUNCAN PLEDGES TO FIGHT - Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) pledged to fight after he was indicted Tuesday for allegedly misusing campaign funds, and gave no indication he would step aside. "This is modern politics and modern media mixed in with law enforcement that has a political agenda," he said in an interview Wednesday with 10News. "We're going to fight through it and win and the people get to vote in November." Meanwhile, the editorial board of his hometown San Diego Union-Tribune called on him to resign.
 
WHAT'S IN A WORD? - Despite the furor on social media and among some national Democrats, House Democrats are largely avoiding the "I word" - impeachment. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and John Bresnhan: "Speaking to members back home in their districts, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's leadership team Tuesday cautioned lawmakers to frame Cohen's plea deal as further evidence of a corrupt administration that needs a Democratic check in Congress, they said. Or, play up Hill Republicans' apathy in the face of Trump's endless scandals, they encouraged. ... A House Democrat close with leadership put it bluntly: 'The voters don't want to talk about impeachment right now. ... You don't want to poke the
 bear in a way that he's able to come back even stronger.'"
 
- On the trail, swing-district Democratic hopefuls are taking the same stance. The Washington Post's Michael Scherer: "[I]nstead of playing to anger among their base, Democrats have decided to walk a delicate line as they try to build momentum behind the midterm elections by staying focused on bread-and-butter issues to woo independent voters. ... 'I always bring the reform message back not to the notion that president might be a rotten guy but the fact that it impacts the issues people really care about,' [PA-07's Susan] Wild said."
 
2016 ALL OVER AGAIN - Democrats will relitigate the 2016 primary at the DNC's summer meeting. The AP's Bill Barrow: "As he seeks to build a unified front among Democrats heading into the next presidential primary, DNC Chairman Tom Perez is pushing a proposal to limit the influence of superdelegates at the 2020 convention. The primary could feature as many as two dozen Democrats vying to take on Trump. 'These moves are about rebuilding trust,' Perez told reporters recently, defending a plan that would strip party insiders of their votes on the first ballot of a contested nominating convention, leaving the outcome to pledged delegates whose votes are dictated by the results of state primaries
 and caucuses. Perez predicted he'll secure the DNC majority required to change party rules when the full committee considers the matter Saturday."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You think you're the only one who deals with this every week, when the thing tears and you have to re-seal your cheese," Sununu said on deli stickers being placed on top of the ziplock bag, via SeaCoastOnline.
 
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