Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Previewing Arizona’s explosive primaries — DNC lags behind in major Democratic fundraising year — How Warren lost the progressive spotlight to Sanders
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2018 08:03:12 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/24/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
We're due for a big day on Tuesday, with primary elections in Arizona and Florida and runoffs in Oklahoma. We're going to get a jumpstart on previewing Tuesday's important elections by focusing on the races out in Arizona.
 
One of the bloodiest primary battles in the country comes in Arizona's 2nd District, where former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is battling physician Matt Heinz for the Democratic nomination. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider's dispatch from Tucson, Ariz.: "[I]t has also gotten vicious in a way many other primaries have not, featuring several negative TV ads, a lawsuit, a private investigator and a recent, controversial statement by Heinz comparing Kirkpatrick's political career to meth addiction. Local Democrats worry that the mudslinging ahead of Tuesday's primary will harm the party's efforts to flip an inviting swing seat, one of 25 held by Republicans but carried by Hillary Clinton in the last
 presidential election. Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) left the seat open to run for Senate, making it an even bigger target for Democrats. 
 
"But the too-close-to-call primary has 'ratcheted up to a new level of negativity and nastiness,' said Andy Barr, a Democratic consultant. The 'negativity hurts us,' said Jo Holt, the chairwoman of the Pima County Democratic Party, as local operatives fret about a bruised and resource-depleted nominee. ... Private polling described to POLITICO shows a tight, two-way race between Heinz and Kirkpatrick, who could be the third DCCC-endorsed candidate to be taken out in a primary in 2018. Some local Democratic operatives said that an intensely energized Democratic base, mixed with anti-establishment aversions, could work against Kirkpatrick."
 
On the other side of the ballot, Republican Lea M&aacute;rquez Peterson, president of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, is the frontrunner. M&aacute;rquez Peterson recently spoke with my former Playbook colleague Anna Palmer on the "Women Rule" podcast about what it is like running as a woman, and how she deals with President Donald Trump: "I kind of separate the man from the policy."
 
Some other House districts to keep an eye on: The open seat in AZ-09, where Democrat Greg Stanton will likely face Republican Steve Ferrara; the Republican primary in AZ-01 for the right to face Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran; and AZ-08, where GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko will face off against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in a rematch of the April special election.
 
The Republican Senate primary in the state to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake has also been contentious. Rep. Martha McSally has been trying to hold off challenges from Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. McSally, who is the favorite of Washington Republicans, has been unable to entirely shake Ward and Arpaio, in part because Trump has at times praised all three of the candidates. NRSC Chairman Cory Gardner even asked the president to endorse McSally to effectively put down her opposition, but the president remained non-committal. McSally, in turn, has completed a revolution in her relationship with Trump. She went from being "appalled" by Trump after the Access Hollywood tapes to a close ally
 (BuzzFeed News' Alexis Levinson and Henry J. Gomez have a good story on this). 
 
Still, the race looks like McSally's to lose: Ward has taken to inviting a Pizzagate conspiracy theorist on her bus tour in a last-ditch effort to drum up attention for her campaign, while Arpaio's bid has turned into a slash-and-burn campaign led by two former Ward staffers seemingly intent on derailing her, the Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reported. And in a sign that McSally's camp is confident about Tuesday, they've already turned their attention to the general election, releasing an ad attacking the presumed Democratic nominee Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for her past anti-war activism.
 
Last, but certainly not least, is the gubernatorial primaries. On the Republican side, incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey is in comfortable shape despite facing a challenge from former state Secretary of State Ken Bennett. On the Democratic side, David Garcia, Steve Farley and Kelly Fryer are battling it out. A poll released Monday has Garcia leading the field with 40 percent of the vote to Farley's 15 percent and Fryer's 7 percent. The RGA has already made Garcia one of its top advertising targets in the country, directing the lion's share of the $9.2 million it has spent in the state to oppose him.
 
Happy Friday! As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 74.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 28: Arizona, Florida primaries and Oklahoma primary runoffs. - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
THE CASH DASH - In a year with a groundswell of Democratic fundraising, one major player has notably not been reaping the benefits: the DNC. McClatchy's Ben Wieder and Adam Wollner: "The DNC has so far taken in $116 million before the November midterm elections - $9 million less than it had taken in at this point in 2014 and more than $30 million less than it had taken in at this point in 2010, the last two midterm cycles. ... A McClatchy analysis found that more than 200 donors who had given more than $1,000 to the DNC in each of the past two midterm elections have failed to pony up any cash to the DNC this time around, despite continuing to support other Democratic groups and candidates."
 
- A popular trend among Democratic candidates is rejecting donations from corporate PACs. But what does that mean? The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey: "But that pledge, for many candidates, is mostly symbolic. Most nonincumbents don't receive any corporate-PAC donations, and they generally constitute only a small percentage of total contributions for those running for reelection. ... Still, it sends a clear message, suggests Adam Bozzi, the communications director for End Citizens United. 'It's not the bulk of [candidates'] money, but when you're in a race like this, every penny matters,' Bozzi said. 'You're gonna tell voters, 'Look, I'm not going to take this money, and that means that when I
 go to Congress, I'm putting your interests first.'"
 
HACK ATTACK (OR NOT) - On Wednesday the DNC told reporters that it believed it was the target of a phishing attack. In reality, it was a state party running a cybersecurity test. Pro Cyber's Eric Geller: "The DNC is crafting rules for how state parties and other campaign organizations can run cybersecurity exercises that affect the party's technology infrastructure, DNC Chief Security Officer Bob Lord told POLITICO. ... [Instead of an attempted hack,] the Michigan Democratic Party had enlisted the support of a tech group called DigiDems to test state party officials' ability to spot spearphishing emails, according to a Democratic source who requested anonymity to speak candidly. DigiDems'
 test setup 'very closely mimicked an actual attack framework and did not in any way exhibit any behaviors of a training system,' Lord said. 'This was a system that was set up expressly for doing much more advanced attacks.'"
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The pro-Democratic group VoteVets is going up with an ad in New Hampshire's 1st District. The ad features a World War II veteran saying "I've never been more worried about our country than I am right," before saying he will vote for Democrat Maura Sullivan, touting her military service. The ad will start airing today with a $190,000 buy behind it, along with $30,000 behind digital versions of the ad, according to the group.
 
- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's orbit is going after Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen in the Nevada Senate Race. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "One Nation, the nonprofit, is spending $1 million on an ad hitting Rosen for voting against Republican tax cuts. 'Nevada's economy is finally coming back. We need less taxes and regulations so families and businesses can breath,' a narrator says in the ad. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with McConnell, is spending $450,000 on an ad attacking Rosen over the lack of records for her personal business, and also tying her to [House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi. The ad is running exclusively in the Reno market."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Republicans are largely sticking with Trump on his hardline immigration policies ahead of the midterms. The Washington Post's David Nakamura and Sean Sullivan: "Republican candidates are joining the White House's campaign to offer public support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), warn of the dangers of the Salvadoran MS-13 gang and highlight sensational crimes involving undocumented immigrants. The aim is to draw a sharp contrast with Democrats over enforcement of border control laws. ... The emerging strategy would represent an echo of Trump's 2016 campaign, during which he fanned fears of crime, terrorist and economic competition from immigrants. But it
 could pose risks for a party that has controlled the White House and Congress for nearly two years and faces pressure from voters to demonstrate progress on the Republican governing agenda."
 
ON THE HOMEFRONT - Former Vice President Joe Biden is endorsing incumbent Democratic Sen. Tom Carper in his primary battle and will record a robocall on his behalf, NBC News' Mike Memoli reported. Carper is trying to fend off a challenge from Kerri Evelyn Harris. Harris has been hammering Carper from his left, hitting him on his ties to the banking industry while getting endorsements from the progressive wing of the party, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Our Revolution.
 
SPRINTING TOWARD THE FINISH LINE - Billionaires Tom Steyer and George Soros announced they're leading a group of donors pitching in $650,000 to Democrat Andrew Gillum's Florida gubernatorial campaign, days ahead of the primary. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "'He's a really unusual candidate,' Steyer said of Gillum in an interview with POLITICO. 'You can see we don't often get involved in D-on-D so it must be because we have such high regard for him, for the ideas he represents and what he can do for Florida.' The sudden cash infusion - which coincides with a pro-Gillum $3.5 million get-out-the-vote effort by a coalition of liberal groups - comes five days before the Aug. 28 primary and
 follows new polling suggesting that Gillum, Tallahassee's mayor and the only African-American in the race, is gaining the most traction in the five-candidate Democratic field."
 
- Former Gov. and Sen. Bob Graham cut a $500,000 check to former Rep. Gwen Graham's (his daughter) PAC, the Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower reported.
 
ALL ABOUT ICE - Democrat Sharice Davids, who is running against GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in Kansas' 3rd District, has said she doesn't support abolishing ICE. But in an interview with a podcast in July, she said she supported defunding the agency. The Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry: "'One of the reasons that Kevin Yoder is so problematic is that he's the chairperson of the Homeland Security committee in the House and he has done the opposite of what we're talking about here. He has the power to defund these practices and defund ICE and he instead decided to write a letter saying, 'I don't think we should separate families,'' Davids said on the podcast."
 
THE LAST FLIGHT OF THE SUPERDELEGATE - As activists meet for the summer DNC meeting, superdelegates look to be on the chopping block. POLITICO's David Siders: "[O]utspoken opponents of the proposal acknowledged they were outnumbered. Still, they pledged an aggressive, last-ditch lobbying effort ahead of a Saturday vote, defying a call for unity from party leaders. 'We're up against a wall,' said Bob Mulholland, a superdelegate and DNC member from California who helped organize opposition to the proposal. 'We're going to fight it like hell.' The opposition campaign threatened to undercut a bid by party leaders to present a unified front before a critical midterm election, exasperating
 officials who have worked for months to design a compromise."
 
MONEY IN POLITICS - The BlackPAC super PAC, which is "working to end the corrupt campaign finance system," got an infusion of dark money. The Center for Public Integrity's Lateshia Beachum: "BlackPAC received $100,000 in July from Propel Capital Network LLC, by far its largest contributor last month, federal documents indicate. The Delaware-registered, New York-based limited liability company does not publicly disclose its funding sources. ... Propel Capital Network LLC is part of an expansion by Propel Capital, a New York City-based operation that says it formed in 2008 as a 'donor-advised fund' to address inequality."
 
- The Trump-aligned America First Action and America First Policies said they will spend $12.5 million in 10 House and two Senate races after Labor Day, The Wall Street Journal's Peter Nicholas and Rebecca Ballhaus reported.
 
- Comedian Bill Maher gave $1 million to Senate Majority PAC, Variety's Ted Johnson reported.
 
PREPRIMARY FUNDRAISING - Ahead of the primaries in Massachusetts, Democratic Rep. Mike Capuano was able to outraise and outspend his primary challenger Ayanna Pressley in MA-07. He raised $217,000 and spent $931,000 with $751,000 cash on hand, per his report. She raised $167,000 and spent $383,000 with $131,000 cash on hand, per her report.
 
WEEKEND READING - 2020 WATCH - Who will emerge from the progressive wing of the Democratic party come 2020? Find some time this weekend to read all of BuzzFeed News' Ruby Cramer's story on how Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) lost some of the spotlight to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and what it means for the presidential election.
 
CODA - HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Florida candidate says alien abduction doesn't define her," from the AP's Curt Anderson.
 
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