Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: What to watch in tonight’s primaries — Potential chaos in North Carolina after redistricting ruling — How to win a Trump endorsement
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2018 08:01:22 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 08/28/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
Happy primary day! Tonight, primaries will be decided in Arizona and Florida, along with primary runoffs in Oklahoma. We'll have another POLITICO livechat tonight, so tune in around the time the first polls close (7 p.m. Eastern in Florida) for some analysis from the POLITICO election team.
 
WHAT TO WATCH TONIGHT - From the Florida gubernatorial contest to some bloody Arizona primaries, POLITICO's Steven Shepard and Elena Schneider break down what to watch. In Florida, will President Donald Trump's endorsement of Rep. Ron DeSantis lift him over Adam Putnam in the GOP gubernatorial primary? "DeSantis entered the race well behind Putnam in the polls, but he cultivated a relationship with the new president, getting on Trump's radar mostly through frequent appearances on Fox News Channel ... Trump ultimately endorsed DeSantis - first, with a tweet late last year, then with an in-person rally and some more tweets - and DeSantis shot to the top of the polls. The latest pre-election
 surveys show a modest comeback for Putnam, but DeSantis still has a wide lead." Who the Democrats will pick in the gubernatorial race also remains an open question. "Former Rep. Gwen Graham - the daughter of Bob Graham, the former governor and senator - has been the slight favorite for most of the race. But chasing her down are three men with significant resources: former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, billionaire investor Jeff Greene and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum."
 
In more gubernatorial primaries: Will Republican Rep. Martha McSally hold off Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Arizona primary? Who will Republican voters pick in the Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff between Mick Cornett and Kevin Stitt? 
 
And on the House front: In Florida, will Democratic Reps. Darren Soto, Al Lawson and Stephanie Murphy hold off primary challengers? And who will emerge from the rough Democratic primary in AZ-02, where former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is facing Matt Heinz?
 
REDISTRICTING MONKEY WRENCH - A federal court struck down North Carolina's map for unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering, stoking uncertainty 10 weeks before the midterms. Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "It is unusual for courts to throw out a political map so close to an election - but district court judges wrote that the case 'presents unusual circumstances.' The Supreme Court vacated a similar decision earlier this year, ordering the district court to retry the case in the wake of the Supreme Court's Gill v. Whitford ruling. ... What happens next is unclear.
 
"The court will appoint a 'special master' to draw a remedial map - but it may also give the North Carolina legislature another chance to draw a "constitutionally compliant" plan, pending further submissions later this week. If so, the court gave the legislature a September 17 deadline to enact that plan - just three weeks from now. On top of that, North Carolina has already held its 2018 congressional primaries. The court raised the option of candidates running in general election districts that were different than the ones in which their primaries were held. But the judges also floated the possibility that the state could instead hold primaries on Nov. 6, Election Day, and then hold
 special general election contests at a later date to be determined."
 
Good Tuesday morning. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 70.
 
Upcoming election dates - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
SCORING A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT - With a few exceptions, an endorsement from the president in a Republican primary has been worth its weight in gold. But they're not as random as they seem. The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman: "[White House political director Bill] Stepien and Johnny DeStefano, the head of presidential personnel, have imposed a measure of order to the process (or at least as much as somebody as impulsive as Mr. Trump will tolerate), with the chief of staff, John F. Kelly ... Thick binders have been assembled on all high-level Republican candidates and sitting members of Congress. The binders include their votes, their behavior on social media and what they
 said about Mr. Trump as he sought the presidency. In the most significant races, a survey has been sent to the candidates asking where they stand on issues and requesting that they grade the president. The candidates are judged on several criteria, including how quickly they respond."
 
- And speaking of endorsements, Trump went to bat again for DeSantis in Florida. He recorded a robocall for DeSantis, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon reported. Trump also reiterated his support for Scott and DeSantis in tweets ahead of their primaries and also endorsed Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, who is facing a primary challenge.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - Rep. John Katko, one of the Republicans holding a district Trump lost in 2016, is in a good position in a new NY-24 poll. A poll from Spectrum News/Siena College has Katko leading Democrat Dana Balter 54 percent to 39 percent. The poll was in the field from Aug. 20-23 and surveyed 513 likely voters.
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Some California Democratic House challengers are coming out against the state's gas tax in an effort to cut off a Republican line of attack. The Los Angeles Times' Patrick McGreevy: "Democratic leaders are facing a mutiny by four of the party's congressional candidates who are opposing a recent increase in the California gas tax that has proved unpopular with many voters. The defections could bolster Proposition 6, a Republican-led initiative on the November ballot that would repeal a 2017 law that increased the state's gas tax and vehicle fees to fix roads and improve mass transit. ... Now, the gas tax increase is also opposed by Democratic congressional candidates
 Katie Porter of Irvine, Josh Harder of Turlock, Jessica Morse of Pollock Pines and Ammar Campa-Najjar of east San Diego County, according to a survey of contenders by The Times."
 
- Democrats have also pounced on the president's trade war on the trail. The Washington Post's Erica Werner: "Democratic candidates in Tennessee, North Dakota, Missouri and elsewhere have campaigned on their opposition to Trump's trade efforts and warned of coming economic damage. Several have engaged in high-profile events with sympathetic figures hurt by Trump's tariffs, accusing their rivals of being complicit in the president's policy. The tariffs, and Democratic messaging concerning them, present GOP candidates with a complicated calculus: stand with Trump and support a policy that may threaten their constituents' livelihoods or break ranks on trade with a president who is strongly
 backed by the party's voters."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Democratic-aligned Patriot Majority USA is going up with an ad in Maine's 2nd District hitting Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin on health care. "That's $300,000 from the insurance industry for Bruce Poliquin," the television ad says. "And a record on health care that leaves Maine's families behind." A source familiar with the buy said it is around $390,000 for television and around $100,000 for a similar radio ad.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and their state affiliates are going up with a handful of new ads thanking Republicans in battleground districts for supporting their policy positions. The first ad, sponsored by the Texas Association of Business, promotes Rep. Will Hurd in TX-23, saying "America is a nation of immigrants" and thanks him for "working to protect the Dreamers, standing up against his own party." A second ad backs Poliquin, praising him for "fighting against tariffs that are pushing us to a trade war." The third ad, sponsored by the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, thanks Rep. Rob Woodall in GA-07 for backing the GOP tax cuts.
 
- The DSCC is going up with a coordinated ad buy with Sen. Bob Menendez's campaign in New Jersey. They reserved at least $117,000 in cable airtime between Aug. 27-Sept. 9, according to Advertising Analytics, coming on the heels of a poll last week that had Menendez in a surprisingly competitive raise against Republican Bob Hugin. The last time Menendez was on the ballot in 2012, the DSCC did not make any coordinated expenditures. The NRSC trumpeted the news, with NRSC comms director Katie Martin writing in a email blast that "if you are a red state Dem, you should start pleading your case to Schumer," because races like Florida and New Jersey are draining resources. David Bergstein, the
 DSCC's national press secretary, said in a statement that "while former pharma CEO Bob Hugin has already spent $11 million on TV and is using the fortune he made raising the costs of prescription drugs for cancer patients to try to buy the Senate seat, the Menendez campaign wisely held their resources until their ads would have maximum impact in the closing weeks of the election." Relatedly, the pro-Hugin super PAC Integrity NJ went up with a new ad hitting Menendez over corruption.
 
- Americans for Prosperity is going up with a television spot in Montana thanking Republican Matt Rosendale for backing direct primary care. The group said it will spend over $500,000 on television and digital for the spot.
 
REPLACING MCCAIN - Ducey will be walking on a tightrope as he picks a replacement for the late-Sen. John McCain. POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago, Daniel Strauss and Theodoric Meyer: "Republicans with knowledge of the governor's thinking say he'll have to remain deferential to Trump and the White House while also taking care not to alienate a statewide electorate ahead of a tough re-election fight in November. ... Ducey hasn't started making calls to prospective replacements for McCain, allies of the governor and outside organizations with knowledge said, and has yet to broach the subject with groups heavily invested in the pick, including the Republican Governors Association and others in
 Washington."
 
DEMOCRATS FALL IN LOVE... - So goes the old axiom, and so goes liberal donors' dollars this cycle. Bloomberg's John McCormick and Bill Allison argue that Democrats are sending money to candidates with big personalities "sometimes at the expense of lower-profile races that will be more pivotal to party efforts": "In this election cycle, Democrats running for the House collectively have raised $170 million more than Republicans, with individual donors pouring $416 million into their coffers. But that advantage evaporates in districts rated by Cook as competitive. In those districts, Democrats have raised $133 million, compared to $132 million for Republicans. But GOP candidates in those
 districts, many of whom didn't have to spend much on primaries, had $74.6 million in their campaign accounts, $15 million more than Democrats, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings."
 
TRONE ANNOUNCES CANCER DIAGNOSIS - David Trone, the Democratic businessman who spent millions of his own money to win the primary in Maryland's 6th District, announced in a statement he has been diagnosed with cancer, but that he expects to make a full recovery. "On Monday, June 25, it was confirmed that I had a tumor in my urinary tract," he said in a statement. "The next step in the recommended course of treatment is to remove the kidney on that side of my urinary tract. The treatment team members believe my prognosis is positive. They say I may miss a few days of the campaign immediately after the surgery, but nothing will interfere with my being fully engaged as a candidate and as a
 member of Congress after the recovery."
 
ENDORSEMENT CORNER - Super PACs representing Democratic House members of color teamed up for a series of endorsements. ASPIRE PAC (Asian American and Pacific Islander members of Congress), Congressional Black Caucus PAC and BOLD PAC (Hispanic members of Congress) endorsed Gil Cisneros in CA-39, Antonio Delgado in NY-19, Steven Horsford NV-04, Gina Ortiz Jones in TX-23, Aftab Pureval in OH-01, Xochitl Torres Small in MN-02, and Lauren Underwood in IL-14.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'll tell ya, come visit me at the ranch," Montana Republican Senate nominee Matt Rosendale when asked by Roll Call if he has gotten any cattle.
 
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