Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Gillum scores major win in Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary, DeSantis wins GOP nod — McSally and Sinema to square off in Arizona Senate race — Cruz’s allies saddle up in Texas
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Aug 2018 08:03:08 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Zach Montellaro | 08/29/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum notched a surprise victory in the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary over former Rep. Gwen Graham, who consistently led in public polling (although late polls showed Gillum making a strong charge). Gillum won support from the progressive wing of the Democratic party, including an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who rallied late in the state for him. He was also the beneficiary of an eleventh-hour cash infusion spearheaded by Democratic megadonors Tom Steyer and George Soros.
 
He will present a big contrast to GOP nominee Rep. Ron DeSantis, who trounced Adam Putnam. Once again, President Donald Trump was a kingmaker: Putnam has been plotting his path to the gubernatorial mansion for years, but Trump's endorsement of DeSantis blew it all up. After a hiccup in last week's Wyoming gubernatorial primary, the president can once again go back to crowing about picking winners in primaries. Back to that general election contrast: Trump has been a vocal supporter of DeSantis, and Gillum has called for the president to be impeached.
 
After some pre-primary hand-wringing (and a lot of money spent), Rep. Martha McSally won the Arizona Republican Senate nomination with a comfortable margin over both Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. She will face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who only faced nominal primary opposition. This race presents one of the best pickup opportunities for the Democrats in the Senate: If they don't win the seat that is currently occupied by Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, there's virtually no path toward a Senate majority, which as is stands is already a tough climb.
 
On the gubernatorial side, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey easily dispatched his opponent and Democrat David Garcia picked up a win in his primary. In Oklahoma, businessman Kevin Stitt won the GOP primary runoff against Mick Cornett. He'll face Democrat Drew Edmondson in November in an election Democrats are hoping to compete in.
 
One of the nastier primaries this cycle came to an end, when former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick beat Matt Heinz for the Democratic nomination in Arizona's 2nd District, McSally's district. She'll face Republican Lea Marquez Peterson.
 
HOUSE RACE ROUNDUP - AZ-09: Republican Steve Ferrara won his primary and Democrat Greg Stanton ran unopposed in Sinema's seat she gave up for her Senate bid.
 
- FL-05: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Al Lawson held of a primary challenge from Alvin Brown.
 
- FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg and Republican Michael Waltz won their respective primaries in DeSantis' old seat.
 
- FL-07: Republican Mike Miller won and will face incumbent Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy.
 
- FL-09: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto beat back a primary challenge from former Rep. Alan Grayson.
 
- FL-15: Republican Ross Spano won his primary after GOP Rep. Dennis Ross retired. He'll face Democrat Kristen Carlson.
 
- FL-17: Republican Greg Steube won his primary to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Tom Rooney.
 
- FL-18: Democrat Lauren Baer won her primary and will face GOP Rep. Brian Mast.
 
- FL-27: Former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala won the Democratic primary and Maria Salazar won the GOP primary. Incumbent GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is retiring.
 
- OK-01: Kevin Hern won the GOP primary runoff to replace former Rep. Jim Bridenstine, who resigned to become NASA administrator.
 
See full results from Arizona, Florida and the Oklahoma runoffs. 
 
Good Wednesday morning. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 69.
 
Upcoming election dates - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
DEEP IN THE HEART... - Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) allies are growing concerned about the lively challenge from Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "David McIntosh, the Club for Growth's president, said on Tuesday the organization is planning a seven-figure-plus offensive targeting O'Rourke. McIntosh was speaking from Texas, where he is meeting with pro-Cruz donors who could help fund the effort. 'In the last five weeks, it's become clear that the race has tightened,' said McIntosh."
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new Wisconsin poll shows two tight races in the state. The Suffolk University poll found Democrat Tony Evers narrowly leading Republican Gov. Scott Walker 46 percent to 44 percent. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads her GOP challenger Leah Vukmir 50 percent to 42 percent. The poll was in the field from Aug. 18-25 and surveyed 500 likely voters.
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - The Koch network is launching a $5.7 million TV blitz in key Senate races. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "The new slate of ads includes two different ads that will run in the Wisconsin Senate race. A $820,000 statewide ad buy from Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity attacks Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin on taxes and spending and praises Republican nominee Leah Vukmir, who recently won her primary. In a second $800,000 buy from Concerned Veterans for America, veterans say that Baldwin missed numerous veteran-related hearings. In Missouri, where AFP is spending $2.1 million, its new new ad attacks Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill on health care and says that 'D.C. changed
 Claire McCaskill' and voters should elect a different senator. And in Tennessee, a new AFP ad attacks Phil Bredesen on spending".
 
- The NRCC released the first ad from its independent expenditure unit, Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider reported. The television ad in NY-22 ties Democrat Anthony Brindisi to Gov. Andrew Cuomo as a "rubber stamp" for his agenda. The Congressional Leadership Fund also released a new television ad in the district that strikes a similar tone.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Democrat Scott Wallace, who is challenging GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-01, released a pair of nearly identical television ads (ad 1, ad 2) hitting Fitzpatrick for taking money from oil and energy companies and for voting for the GOP tax plan.
 
REPLACING MCCAIN - Cindy McCain, the late-Sen. John McCain's widow, will play a major role in the process to select the next Arizona senator. POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago, Daniel Strauss and Daniel Lippman: "More than a dozen McCain family friends and Republicans familiar with the search said that while Cindy McCain isn't expected to take an active political role, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey wants to avoid alienating her as he heads into a tough re-election fight. ... In interviews, McCain friends said Cindy McCain hadn't brought up politics in recent weeks. 'She spent the last year at John's side as they've gotten through this illness and that's all that she's been focused on,' said one
 friend."
 
THE OPPO BOOK - Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running against GOP Rep. Dave Brat in Virginia's 7th District, is accusing the Congressional Leadership Fund of "improperly obtaining her entire federal security clearance application." The New York Times' Michael Tackett: Spanberger "sent a cease-and-desist letter to Corry Bliss, the executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, which has raised more than $100 million to help Republicans in the midterm elections. She demanded that the super PAC destroy all copies of the form and agree to not use the information in any fashion. ...
 
"The super PAC released a statement on Tuesday strongly denying Ms. Spanberger's charge, saying that the document was obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the United States Postal Service by America Rising, a separate Republican-aligned research firm. The group also released a portion of the security clearance application, blacking out some personal information. Graham Wilson, a lawyer for Ms. Spanberger's campaign, said that explanation, which laid the mistake on the Postal Service, did not ring true. 'In this unredacted form, this is not a document that the government can provide under the Privacy Act,' he said."
 
- The CLF release a detailed statement later, releasing the letter Spanberger sent and saying they obtained the form legally. "CLF follows the letter of the law in examining any candidate's background and Ms. Spanberger was no different," CLF spokesperson Courtney Alexander said in the statement. "That she's threatening legal action, however, should raise serious questions for voters about what else she is trying to hide. For any interested parties, CLF is happy to provide redacted copies of the information Ms. Spanberger is trying to hide from voters in Virginia." The group also provided a timeline for how they acquired the information.
 
POLITICS IN THE #METOO ERA - Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison, who won his party's nomination for attorney general in Minnesota, is facing domestic abuse allegations, which he has denied. Democrats have not distanced themselves from him, which could come up in upcoming elections. POLITICO's David Siders: Republicans have used "the controversy to pummel Minnesota Democrats running in congressional and statewide races over their ties to Ellison ... Democrats, while fearful of the potential fallout, have largely held back - or remained in Ellison's corner. After Ellison's primary victory, the state central committee of the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party, as Democrats are known in Minnesota, voted
 326-70 to endorse Ellison."
 
THE CASE OF THE MYSTERY ENDORSEMENT - GOP Rep. Jim Renacci, the party's Senate nominee in Ohio, has touted his early endorsement of the president on the trail. But there's little from the presidential primaries showing he publicly backed Trump. BuzzFeed News' Henry Gomez: "[T]here does not appear to be any record of Renacci publicly backing Trump until after he clinched the nomination. To the contrary, there are examples of Renacci publicly professing his neutrality, while also suggesting that he'd prefer a governor and, at times, criticizing Trump's rhetoric."
 
REVENGE OF THE NERDS - Election forecast modelers are back, with lessons learned from 2016, trying to predict the battle for the House (and modelers, I count myself as a nerd of a different type, so don't feel insulted). POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "The latest entrant is a partnership between Ipsos, the international polling firm, and the Sabato's Crystal Ball, the election-analysis site led by Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. ... But after the last presidential election - where Trump was given little chance of winning, according to many of the formulas - these forecasters are facing questions about what exactly they learned from the 2016 experience.
 They're being asked to be more transparent in how they construct their models, more cognizant of how viewers and readers process complex probabilities and to be clearer in setting expectations for the outcome."
 
2020 WATCH - Who will emerge from the progressive wing of the Democratic party: Sen Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)? David Catanese in The Atlantic: "Sometime after the midterms, allies of both senators expect the duo to sit down together and chat about their next moves. They'll do the appropriate mulling and participate in the time-honored tradition of consulting family members over the holidays. But, 'his decision is an audience of one: Elizabeth Warren,' the Sanders adviser says bluntly. No matter his appetite for running, he's conscious of her potency. 'They have to sit down and figure out who's going,' the adviser added."
 
- And don't call it an early sign, but ... Michael Bloomberg is headlining a fundraiser for the Pennsylvania Democratic party, POLITICO's David Siders reports.
 
CODA - STATISTIC OF THE DAY: Gillum and his allies spent a comparatively small $2 million on television during the primary, per HuffPost's Kevin Robillard.
 
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