Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Redistricting chaos likely postponed in North Carolina — Previewing the Massachusetts primary — Republicans could cut some House incumbents loose
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 04 Sep 2018 08:02:30 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 09/04/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
REDISTRICTING UPDATE - The plaintiffs in a successful case that found North Carolina's district maps unconstitutional aren't pushing to have the map redrawn just weeks before the midterm elections. The plaintiffs - including Common Cause and the state League of Women Voters - said in a filing that they "have reluctantly concluded that - on the unique facts presented here - attempting to impose a new districting plan in time for the 2018 election would be too disruptive and potentially counterproductive." A "statewide redistricting just weeks before Election Day would not be a good-government solution."
 
This does not totally end the uncertainty. As The News & Observer's Will Doran and Brian Murphy report, the judges are not required to use the plaintiff's suggestion and could order the maps redrawn before the election. The defendants, which included many of the state's top GOP lawmakers, also did not think the map should be redrawn. "The legislators also voiced concerns about redrawing the maps so quickly, then updating the voter rolls in time. The only way it could be possible, they said, would be if the state could undo the results of the primary election earlier this spring, take the races for the U.S. House of Representatives off the November ballot and instead vote on those races on
 Dec. 18," the News & Observer reported. "If the judges don't accept the plaintiffs' plan to let the elections go forward using the current maps, they could use one of the remedies they suggested in their ruling, including having the current candidates run in November in newly drawn districts. If that happens, there will be a fight over who gets to draw the maps."
 
ANOTHER PRIMARY DAY - And tonight, more primaries will be decided in Massachusetts. In the 7th District, Democratic Rep. Michael Capuano is trying to hold off a primary challenge from Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley. "It's a test of whether a longtime liberal incumbent can withstand the wave of pent-up ambition surging through the Democratic Party, but that's not all," POLITICO's Stephanie Murray writes "Pressley is also pressing another issue, one that attracted national attention in the aftermath of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's massive upset victory against New York Rep. Joe Crowley in June: In an increasingly diverse party, who is better suited to represent a majority-minority
 district - a white male or a woman of color?" Massachusetts Democrats will also pick from a wide-ranging primary to replacing retiring Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas in a MA-03, safe blue district. WBUR's Fred Thys breaks down the race.
 
Voters will also choose two likely sacrificial lambs. Democrats will pick between Jay Gonzalez and Bob Massie to face GOP Gov. Charlie Baker in November (Baker ranks among the country's most popular governors), while Republicans will pick between Geoff Diehl, John Kingston and Beth Lindstrom to face Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is likely to cruise to reelection.
 
Good Tuesday morning. Election nerds, rejoice: MSNBC's Steve Kornacki will debut a live, election-focused show on the channel's digital platforms on Tuesdays at noon Eastern. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 63.
 
Upcoming election dates - Sept. 4: Massachusetts primaries. - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
REPLACING MCCAIN - Now that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has been laid to rest, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey is expected to move quickly to fill his seat. The Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Maria Polletta: "Ducey's candidate pool will vary depending on whether he wants to appoint a 'caretaker' or someone with aspirations to hold the seat long-term, [GOP strategist Doug] Cole said. If it's the latter, Ducey will likely 'look for someone forward-looking ... that has the desire and the life experience to stand for election in 2020,' he said. 'That person would also have to have the ability to raise an immense amount of money, because these are multimillion-dollar races.'"
 
CUT 'EM LOOSE - With just over two months to election day, House Republicans are facing the prospect of having to leave some incumbents hanging out to dry. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "GOP officials say as many as 45 Republican-held seats are at serious risk, making it impossible to salvage each one in the costly scramble to protect the party's 23-seat majority- especially those members who have waged sluggish campaigns and posted lackluster fundraising totals. ...
 
"Behind the scenes, senior party strategists have begun polling to determine which incumbents may be beyond saving. Among those most in jeopardy of getting cut off, they say, are Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, Pennsylvania Rep. Keith Rothfus, and Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, all of whom are precariously positioned in their districts. The party has to date reserved millions of dollars of future advertising time to buttress Comstock and Rothfus. Yet those funds are not guaranteed - they still might be diverted to other incumbents viewed as more likely to win in the fall."
 
ANOTHER CAMPAIGN FINANCE INDICTMENT - Jerry Lundergan, the father of 2014 Kentucky Senate Democratic nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes, and another operative were indicted in connection with illegal campaign donations. The Lexington Herald Leader's Daniel Desrochers and Bill Estep: "The indictment alleges that Lundergan and an employee of his company approached campaign consultants and vendors and told them to bill S.R. Holding Co. for work they did for his daughter's campaign. The company paid those bills and then allegedly did not seek reimbursement from Grimes' campaign. After a grand jury subpoenaed records from Lundergan in 2016, the company still only sought partial reimbursement,
 according to the indictment."
 
- And speaking of indictments: President Donald Trump asserted that the indictments against Reps. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) from his Justice Department would hurt the GOP's midterm chances, suggesting the DOJ should take political considerations into account. "Two long running, Obama era, investigations of two very popular Republican Congressmen were brought to a well publicized charge, just ahead of the Mid-Terms, by the Jeff Sessions Justice Department," he tweeted. "Two easy wins now in doubt because there is not enough time. Good job Jeff."
 
DOG WHISTLE - As Democrats field into a diverse pool of candidates, they brace for race-baiting attacks. The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick: "They see a climate, encouraged in part by the success of President Trump's campaign, where dog-whistles and implicit references to race and ethnicity will be the norm in advertisements and candidate strategy. This could be especially pronounced with the wide swath of diverse candidates the Democratic party has recruited this cycle - a byproduct itself of Trump's own divide-and-conquer rhetoric. 'Unfortunately, this is the world that Donald Trump has unleashed, a place where, because of the color of your skin, you can be assumed to be nefarious,' Abdul
 El-Sayed, who was a progressive Democratic candidate for governor in Michigan, told The Daily Beast in an interview. 'And that your job is to prove that you're not.'"
 
DEADLINE DAY - Today is the last day that a candidate in the Alaska gubernatorial election can drop out, and supporters of both independent Gov. Bill Walker and former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich are hoping that the other camp blinks first and drops out, or risk handing the race to Republican Mike Dunleavy. The Anchorage Daily News' Tegan Hanlon and Annie Zak: "[S]ome Democratic lawmakers who had voted for Walker in 2014 are deciding whether to vote to re-elect him in November or go with the Democratic candidate, Begich, who served as Anchorage mayor before becoming a U.S. senator. Rep. Adam Wool, a Democrat from Fairbanks, supported Walker in 2014 and supported Begich during his runs for
 U.S. Senate in 2008, which he won, and 2014, which he lost. Wool said he's 'really concerned' about the outcome in a three-way fight."
 
OBAMA WEIGHS IN - Former President Barack Obama is hitting the trail. The Hill's Alexander Bolton and Amie Parnes: "[S]ources familiar with his plans say he will soon hit the campaign trail to help Democrats in their quest to take back the House, protect vulnerable Senate incumbents and win state legislative races. The former president will kick off his push by delivering a speech at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign on Friday. In the weeks ahead, Obama will also campaign in California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, a person familiar with his schedule said."
 
- Obama also made another endorsement, backing Nevada Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Sisolak. "Nevada has the chance to elect its first Democratic governor in 20 years and show the country that it still believes that hardworking families and their priorities should always come first," Obama said in a release from the Sisolak campaign. "Steve will always stand with Nevadans - and I'm asking Nevada to join me in standing with him this fall."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with an ad in Nebraska's 2nd District. The ad hits Democrat Kara Eastman, who is challenging GOP Rep. Don Bacon, for her "liberal agenda." "We know Kara Eastman is a liberal. But what does that really mean?," the ad says, before ascribing price tags to policies Eastman supports. "Behind Eastman's liberal agenda is a big price tag."
 
DEEP IN THE HEART - Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke is still hanging with Cruz in polls in the Texas Senate race. The New York Times' Matt Flegenheimer dove into the race (with great photos from Tamir Kalifa): "[O'Rourke] says relatively little about Mr. Cruz on the logic that everyone already knows about him. He has visited each of the state's 254 counties, he says, because he would not vote for a party that never showed up in his town, either. More than anything, Mr. O'Rourke has made clear that he will not modulate his politics, betting that he can energize and activate nonvoters from past years, particularly younger ones, with left-wing authenticity and genial hustle."
 
- More details about O'Rourke's DWI 20 years ago, which he openly talks about on the campaign trail, were revealed by the Houston Chronicle's Kevin Diaz. "The law enforcement reports show two elements of the incident that have been overlooked: that there was a crash involved, and that O'Rourke allegedly attempted to flee. Though no injuries were reported, an ambulance was called to the scene."
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president promised to campaign for one of his former enemies, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). "I will be doing a major rally for Senator Ted Cruz in October. I'm picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find," Trump tweeted. "As you know, Ted has my complete and total Endorsement. His opponent is a disaster for Texas - weak on Second Amendment, Crime, Borders, Military, and Vets!"
 
2020 WATCH - After an extensive investigation, The Boston Globe determined that Sen. Warren's self-identification as a Native American had no bearing on her being offered a job at Harvard. The Boston Globe's Annie Linskey: "[T]he Globe found clear evidence, in documents and interviews, that her claim to Native American ethnicity was never considered by the Harvard Law faculty, which voted resoundingly to hire her, or by those who hired her to four prior positions at other law schools. At every step of her remarkable rise in the legal profession, the people responsible for hiring her saw her as a white woman."
 
- Democrats are increasingly turning their focus to South Carolina to help pick their presidential nominee. POLITICO's David Siders: "It's a tacit acknowledgment of the essential role African-American voters play within the Democratic Party as much as it is a nod to recent primary election results. With the racially diverse Obama coalition increasingly viewed as the key to the party's future, the two early states that have historically overshadowed South Carolina - Iowa and New Hampshire - are suddenly looking outmoded to many Democrats."
 
- Vice President Joe Biden has a date in mind for when he'll decide if he'll run for president. The AP's Thomas Beaumont and Steve Peoples: "Biden is in regular talks with a small team of longtime friends and advisers. He also talks to potential donors and longtime staff about the possibility of another campaign. However, he has also signaled to them they are free to ally with other prospective candidates, as he eyes a January timeframe for deciding on whether to run, according to three people familiar with Biden's thinking".
 
CODA - "The race doesn't really start until Trump comes to town and burns your house down," NRSC executive director Chris Hansen, talking about the strategy to attack red-state Senate Democrats to The Wall Street Journal.
 
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