Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Unveiling POLITICO’s race ratings — Pressley downs Capuano in MA-07 — Kyl to fill McCain’s seat, won’t run in 2020 special election
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2018 08:04:04 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 09/05/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
POLITICO'S RACE RATINGS - We launched our inaugural race ratings this morning - scoring every midterm contest for the House, Senate and governor. Here are the toplines:
 
- The House leans Democratic. While we have only slightly more seats leaning Democratic than Republican, nearly all of our two dozen toss-up districts are currently held by Republicans. 
 
- The Senate likely stays Republican. We have one Democrat-held seat leaning Republican: North Dakota. The toss-up races include three seats held by Democrats (Indiana, Florida and Missouri) and two held by Republicans (Arizona and Nevada). But the math remains the same: Dems essentially have to run the table to win back the chamber.
 
- Democrats will pick up governorships. We currently rate Illinois and New Mexico as likely Democratic, and Michigan as leaning Democratic. All seven toss-up states (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin) are currently GOP-held.
 
You can check out all the ratings here. POLITICO's Steven Shepard, the mastermind behind the race ratings (so direct your angry emails to him!), breaks down how each race is rated, and gives a more detailed rundown on top races.
 
MA PRIMARY RESULTS - Another incumbent House member went down Tuesday night after Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley primaried Democratic Rep. Michael Capuano in Massachusetts' 7th District, putting her well on track to be the first black woman to represent the state in Congress in this safe blue district. However, this race shouldn't simply be seen as a progressive insurgent toppling the establishment pick - Capuano has long been a reliably progressive vote in Congress. Instead, mark it as another datapoint for the changing face of the Democratic party. POLITICO's Lauren Dezenski and David Siders: "Pressley acknowledged there was little daylight between her and Capuano on policy, though
 she differentiated herself on the fate of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and by not accepting corporate PAC money. But most of all, Pressley offered voters a different style of leadership, leaning heavily on her experiences as a black woman, casting her candidacy as a vote for change in a 'fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.'" In Massachusetts' 3rd District, the AP has not called the Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas in this overwhelming Democratic district, but Daniel Koh is ahead.
 
Democrat Jay Gonzalez won the Democratic primary to face GOP Gov. Charlie Baker while Republican Geoff Diehl won his primary to face Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Both incumbents are heavily favored to win their elections. Check out the full primary results here.
 
Good Wednesday morning. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 62.
 
Upcoming election dates - Sept. 6: Delaware primaries. - Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. - Sept. 12: Rhode Island primaries. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
KYL'S BACK - Arizona GOP Gov. Doug Ducey picked former Sen. Jon Kyl to fill the late Sen. John McCain's seat. His swearing in is imminent. "It's not the time for newcomers," Ducey said in a news conference. The Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Maria Polletta reported that Kyl has agreed to serve at least through the end of the year. Since his retirement in 2013, Kyl has worked as a lobbyist and also recently served as the "sherpa" for Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, meaning he'll get to vote for the man he shepherded around the Senate. (POLITICO's Elena Schor broke down the first day of the bonkers Kavanaugh hearing.)
 
Kyl's return to the Senate throws the future of McCain's former seat into question. My POLITICO colleagues Alex Isenstadt and James Arkin reported that Kyl would not run in 2020. This sets up several interesting scenarios. Ducey is up for reelection against Democrat David Garcia. If Kyl only sticks around until the end of the year, the winner of the gubernatorial battle could appoint a replacement until the special election - though as Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball pointed out, state law requires that the replacement share the same party as the incumbent, meaning a Republican will fill the seat. And the longer Kyl stays in the seat, the less of an incumbency advantage any Republican
 who takes over would have heading into the special election.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new poll in the Florida gubernatorial race has Democrat Andrew Gillum locked in tight one with GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis. The Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters has Gillum at 50 percent to DeSantis' 47 percent. The poll was in the field from Aug. 30-Sept. 3 and surveyed 785 likely voters via live caller interviews.
 
- The Missouri Senate race is also tight. In an NBC News/Marist poll, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is tied with Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley at 47 percent each. When third party candidates are included, McCaskill gets 44 percent, Hawley gets 40 percent, Libertarian candidate Japheth Campbell has 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jo Crain has 3 percent. The survey was conducted between Aug. 25-28 of 568 likely voters.
 
REDISTRICTING UPDATE - There will be no redistricting chaos in North Carolina ahead of the midterms. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "A panel of federal judges has dropped plans to force a redrawing of North Carolina's congressional districts in advance of this fall's midterm elections. ... 'Having carefully reviewed the parties' briefing and supporting materials, we conclude that there is insufficient time for this Court to approve a new districting plan and for the State to conduct an election using that plan prior to the seating of the new Congress in January 2019. And we further find that imposing a new schedule for North Carolina's congressional elections would, at this late juncture, unduly
 interfere with the State's electoral machinery and likely confuse voters and depress turnout,' Judges James Wynn Jr., William Osteen Jr. and W. Earl Britt wrote in a joint order."
 
MORE YOUNG GUNS - The NRCC announced a second round of adds to its "Young Guns" program, the highest level of its battleground program: Lea Marquez Peterson (AZ-02), Elizabeth Heng (CA-16), Justin Fareed (CA-24), Mike Miller (FL-07), Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27), Steve Watkins (KS-02), Lena Epstein (MI-11), Jim Hagedorn (MN-01), Yvette Herrell (NM-02), Denver Riggleman (VA-05), Bryan Steil (WI-01) and Carol Miller (WV-03).
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - It's a case of the dueling memos: The NRCC released a memo arguing that "in spite of history and conventional wisdom inside the Beltway, as it stands today, Republicans are well-positioned to maintain control of the House." The memo highlights the NRCC's strong fundraising, touts planned ad buys and says "internal polls have nearly every Republican incumbent in the lead or within the margin of error-even in states such as Virginia, California, and New York." Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi sent a dear colleague letter to House Democrats arguing "we must Be Ready for the prospect that we will be in the Majority in January."
 
ETHICS INVESTIGATION - GOP Rep. Rod Blum, who is in a tight reelection battle with Democrat Abby Finkenauer in Iowa's 1st District, is being investigated by the House ethics committee. Des Moines Register's Barbara Rodriguez: The investigation comes "following news reports earlier this year that he failed to disclose his private business on a required form. ... The House committee plans to announce 'a course of action' on or before Dec. 17, according to the letter. ... Tuesday's release from the ethics committee doesn't offer more specifics, and notes its existence doesn't indicate a violation has occurred. Blum, however, quickly released a statement confirming the inquiry is related to his
 disclosure form."
 
FIRST IS SCORE - BATTLEGROUND ADS - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with another television ad in NY-19 attacking Democratic nominee Antonio Delgado for his "liberal agenda" that benefited New York City. "Pushing New York City's interests at our expense - leaving Upstate voiceless," the ad's narrator said. "Thirty-two-trillion in new government spending, nearly doubling the debt. Who'll pay? You."
 
- Delgado picked up a major endorsement: Vice President Joe Biden, Spectrum News' Nick Reisman reported.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Majority Forward, which is tied to the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, released an ad in West Virginia hitting Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey over pre-existing conditions. "Patrick Morrisey has joined a lawsuit to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions," the ad's narrator, Julie Schleier, said. "There's many people in West Virginia that he would greatly harm by doing that." 
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - The NRCC is going up against a Democratic incumbent for the first time this cycle. Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "The committee will spend close to a half-million dollars on broadcast and cable TV and digital advertisements starting Wednesday and continuing through most of September in the Wilkes-Barre-area seat in northeastern Pennsylvania [targeting Rep. Matt Cartwright]. ... Cartwright faces Republican John Chrin, a former investment banker who has seeded his campaign with over $1.5 million in self-funding." 
 
- Americans for Prosperity is also launching a major campaign in the Michigan gubernatorial race. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: AFP "is launching a $1.6 million television and digital ad campaign attacking Michigan gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer's time in the state Senate. The ad builds on a $1.7 million ad in spending on the race from AFP earlier this summer."
 
STAYING IN - The Alaska gubernatorial election will be a three-man race after former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich decided to not drop out. The Anchorage Daily News' Annie Zak and Tegan Hanlon: "'Let me make it very clear to the reporters and others: If you want to talk about the process, talk to someone else,' he told press and a crowd of cheering supporters at his campaign headquarters in Anchorage. 'We are done with that. I'm in the race to win. It's a three-way race, so get used to it.' ... Begich is facing off against incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, and former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican. Some Democrats have said they're concerned Begich and Walker will split the
 vote, resulting in a Dunleavy win."
 
BREAKING RANKS - In a fairly high-profile dissention, former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves, a Republican, is endorsing the Democrat Laura Kelly over Republican Kris Kobach. The Kansas City Star's Hunter Woodall: "'Laura Kelly is the only Democrat I have ever endorsed for public office,' Graves said in the statement. ... Graves, who served as governor from 1995 to 2003, is the most prominent Republican to support Kelly this election cycle. Despite saying he has never endorsed a Democrat for public office in his statement, at least two Democratic candidates for the Kansas Legislature boasted during the 2016 cycle that Graves had endorsed them."
 
BIG CHANGE IN CHICAGO - Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel made a surprise announcement that he won't seek a third term. The Chicago Tribune's Bill Ruthhart: "With First Lady Amy Rule by his side, an emotional Emanuel said the time simply had come to write a new chapter in their lives together. 'I've decided not to seek re-election,' Emanuel said. 'This has been the job of a lifetime, but it is not a job for a lifetime.' Emanuel's decision marks a dramatic political reversal, as for the better part of the last year he had said he would run for a third term."
 
- Despite what would've been a brutal reelection battle, Emanuel's decision shocked the city, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Shia Kapos reported: "His polling numbers were sliding, and had even bottomed out in some city wards. With Chicagoans weary of the violence playing out in their neighborhoods, frustrated with a struggling school system and blaming him for a series of tax and fee hikes, Rahm Emanuel faced a long, painful reelection slog with an uncertain payoff. Still, the city was stunned when the brash Chicago mayor who never lost an election announced Tuesday that he was throwing in the towel."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You're all invited down to the Caribbean to have a drink with me," Capuano said at his primary night party after his loss.
 
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